Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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9/3 Cubs (Mills) at Pirates (Brubaker) 12:35 CT Marquee
Bertz replied to soccer10k's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Yeah Riddle plays infield defense like Ian Happ with offense like Albert Almora -
Magic number down to 25. Take at least 6 in this upcoming 11 game stretch against the Cards/Reds/Brewers and it's basically over.
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Yeah this is pretty bad news for Saturday, where we were going to need Alzolay anyway, but otherwise I'm not especially worried about this in the near term. We do need to figure who else is going to be in the October rotation besides Yu and Kyle, so this obviously sucks as we get fewer looks.
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Ah, the second part of this tweet is likely it:
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This is a bit of a weird one, Musgrove is not a reverse split guy as far as I can tell?
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The team has been unlucky with balls in play as well. They're 24th in BABIP at .274 despite being 4th in average exit velocity, 3rd in hard hit %, 5th in barrel%. The swing and miss is probably going to keep them from being elite offensively, but they should probably end up more in the 5-10 range rather than their current middle of the road production.
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!!!!
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9/1 Cubs (Lester) at Pirates (Kuhl) 6:05 CT Marquee
Bertz replied to soccer10k's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
was he? i think maybe the cubs were so good that it just took us a while to realize joe is just a typical baseball manager I would say he definitely wasn’t bad in the beginning. Not saying he was good necessarily though. I think he was good initially. The problem is that the half dozen things he did that we're innovative became table stakes over the course of his tenure. So then he just ended up a mediocre manager with a massive ego preventing him from learning from his mistakes (because he can't admit to making one). -
9/1 Cubs (Lester) at Pirates (Kuhl) 6:05 CT Marquee
Bertz replied to soccer10k's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
I'm slightly encouraged that the velo seems to be coming back, but yeah. Also, that was a travesty of an AB by the umpire. Willson's framing is improved but I only *maybe* strike three was due to him. -
Interesting stat I just looked up...career wRC+ overall versus as a DH: The good: Martinez - 121 vs 121 Contreras - 114 vs 102 Schwarber - 116 vs 124 The bad: Kipnis - 103 vs 64 Caratini - 87 vs 29 (only 35 PAs) Maybin - 94 vs 35 The Cubs have gotten horsefeathers production out of the DH spot this year. It's one of those things like hitting leadoff that really messed with some guys, I remember Giambi being the notorious example. Moving forward, I'd like to continue using it to keep Willson as an everyday player, as I'm not worried about his bat like I am Javy's. But when he's not DHing split it between Schwarber and Martinez and get whomever of Maybin/Souza/Bote into the lineup and the field based on matchups.
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Not sure how why Sadler rather than Winkler but who knows
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From Sharma's article today. Hottovy's sort of the cutter whisperer so there might be something here.
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He was one of the Yankees pixie dust guys like Voit and Urshela. Statcast also says he's been unlucky this year. His xwOBA is .361, which for reference is Anthony Rizzo's real wOBA this year. Maybin in is weirdly redundant with Souza though. I wonder if that means Souza's not that close or if Nico might get sent down. Just send down Almora That's only one spot though. In terms of roster spots, if KB and Souza are ready to go we're basically looking at this: Phegley -> Martinez Chatwood -> Osich Almora -> Maybin Perez -> KB ??? -> Souza Maybe Souza's not actually that close despite taking ABs at South Bend today. But otherwise it's gotta be Nico or a reliever for Souza.
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He was one of the Yankees pixie dust guys like Voit and Urshela. Statcast also says he's been unlucky this year. His xwOBA is .361, which for reference is Anthony Rizzo's real wOBA this year. Maybin in is weirdly redundant with Souza though. I wonder if that means Souza's not that close or if Nico might get sent down.
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I think Bryan has the right idea here:
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I mean honestly, he just needs to be healthy for the playoffs. Cubs are at 97% playoff odds per Fangraphs and while winning the division is nice, with the NL mostly mediocre and the playoffs likely to be played in a bubble (so no HFA), the only thing I'd be concerned about is avoiding the Dodgers. But even then it might not be bad to take your shot at the Dodgers in a 3 game series vs maybe having to play them in a 7 game NLCS. But yeah the fact that theres at least some tiny bit of doubt he may not be back before the playoffs, its certainly a concern. Yeah, I'm basically worried about a Pedro Strip situation, where he gets back like a week before the playoffs, gets two shaky outings in, and then we have to wonder if he's a guy that we can lean on yet. Like CW11 said though he's basically free if he doesn't come back, so I wonder if they get Osich on top of Chafin.
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Given how little season is left getting a guy on the IL is worrisome, who knows if there's enough time to get him back and right. But Chafin is basically the ideal lefty setup man: murder on lefties and still pretty good against righties.
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It looks at first glance like he's unluckily had an extra couple balls go over the fence, and that everything else is fine. That said, he's had a higher than expected HR/FB rate his entire career so it might not be bad luck at this point.
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Doubt we're on him now, but obviously good to have him available in the offseason. Although if they're not planning to pick up his very reasonable $12.5M option that's ominous as hell for this winter.
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Yeah, I feel like that deal should have had someone better than Quantrill as the primary P. It's really impressive what Preller has done in aggregate. Bringing in all this talent without touching the top tier of their farm beyond Trammell is quite a feat. Padres are probably the second best team in the NL now, and still have a young team and a good farm. That's awesome.
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Seems like the Padres gave up a ton. You've gotta be real sure that Nola is the star he's been since getting called up last year, and not some Quad A flash in the pan.
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From Rosenthal's latest. If the price is right wouldn't mind grabbing Kiké Hernandez to further fortify the bench.
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So KB and Souza are both taking ABs at South Bend tomorrow on the off day. I'd guess that means that they'll be back either Tuesday in Pitt or Friday back at Wrigley. So with that, plus the Martinez move, plus the likely lefty reliever move, we're looking at a good bit of roster shakeup this from where we were this weekend Out: Chatwood, Phegley, Perez, Almora (?) In: Lefty Reliever, KB, Souza, Martinez I'd also like to see Alzolay up full time, but I've thought Underwood was on the way out several times this season so I doubt it'll happen coming off of a few good outings in a row.
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Get Kimbrel into this game please
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Yup, have to think he's probably done for the year. Definitely as a starter at least. That makes the starter/reliever decision about Q, and I'd think Alzolay stays up for good now. Let him be a long guy following Q til he's built up and then Mills afterwards.