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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Remember this in January when they're crying poor
  2. Bertz
    This funk he's in is certainly just A, but I think B is a very real thing. Like I don't thinks he's bad now or anything, but unless you're talking about Trout you should generally assume your MVP candidate is going to be more of an All Star going forward. It's just so hard to stay at that top level for more than a season or two. I do think it's interesting no one is talking about his knee. That was a pretty gruesome injury less than a year ago, it's not unreasonable to think it is contributing.
  3. Bertz
    Fangraphs now has the Cubs at 95% to make the playoffs and 68% to win the division
  4. Bertz
  5. Bertz
    I believe the LT hit for this season is based on planned salary not the prorated amounts, so trading Q should be good enough to get them under. If I could have reasonable assurance that it would positively impact next season's payroll, I'd 100% do it. I'm kinda skeptical it matters though. Also, depending on how we're feeling about Hoerner at that point, I'd look to try to cash in Bote for his equivalent in the form of a pen arm. Someone young and still 4-5 years from FA.
  6. Bertz
    Yeah I don’t have faith they’d take on the money/risk he opts in and I think they’re gonna clearly go under the LT next year. So doubt it, but he’d be a great addition to this lineup. Hopefully Mills remains looking like an option for next year. They should have ~$25 mil to spend and stay under the LT to fill SP spots and any other holes/do extensions. Do they need to stay under the luxury tax next year to avoid bad penalties? I'd hate to think that the last year with all of Javy, Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber would be a 'stay under the luxury tax' season, but then again who knows if all 4 will be here Opening Day 2021. Maybe if they get JD Martinez and he opts in they find a home for Schwarber or something. I think given the revenue hit this year, there's about a 0% chance they cross the LT line next year. Even if public data is off by a bit and they succeeded in resetting the tax this year, it just looks like way too convenient a line in the sand for that ghoul PTR to draw.
  7. Bertz
    This might be why no Almora against the lefty. Although it makes Schwarber in left instead of Bryant or Happ weird
  8. Bertz
    I think what to do with Chatwood really depends on how much money the team is willing to spend. Assuming they decline Lester's option, there's about 25-30 mil to the luxury tax line. That's probably enough to do something like resign Chatwood, sign a reliever, and trade for a starting pitcher in arb (e.g. Jon Gray). As things currently stand, that ought to be a solid offseason. But if PTR decides to PTR even more than anticipated, Chatwood is probably not an efficient use of resources.
  9. Bertz
    I'd believe anything with Kimbrel. His velocity and his spin are both down, but not by a crazy amount. So I'd believe a minor mechanical issue will at some point have him right as rain. I also saw some screengrabs where his glove is not up as high as it used to be. Could simply be that hitters are seeing the ball out of his hand way early? Add a little bit of deception back in, and maybe he's at least back to 2018 Kimbrel? At the same time, he appears to have literally no command. He's the rare occurrence of control but not command. He can throw strikes, but they're all right down the middle. Anytime he tries to finesse a pitch at all it goes wild. I haven't seen this since late career Dontrelle Willis. It seems very much like a "he's irreparably broken" sort of thing. So yeah, I just hope that the offense keeps going nuts and giving us 5+ run leads for him to work with while they figure it out.
  10. Bertz
    Really glad that Mills is showing to be an adequate back-end guy. Assuming the team doesn't pick up Lester's option, there's three rotation spots opening up next year. And given everything going on, there's no way PTR is going to give the FO the resources needed to fill all three externally. If Mills continues to show he can be a cromulent back-end guy, that helps immensely with planning for next season. Especially since the minors got axed this year, we're not sure who if anyone from the Iowa staff will be worth giving a spot to next year. If Mills keeps this up we can have him be the initial #5 guy, and still hope that Abbott or somebody supplants him mid-year.
  11. Bertz
    He has to be the best ever at tagging runners. I've literally seen nothing like it He definitely is. Also a big change considering prior to him we had Stsrlin, who was a huge dufus at tagging
  12. Bertz
    Javy Tag!
  13. Bertz
    His velo was up a tick from last outing, so that's something...I guess?
  14. Bertz
    Ross better still bring in Kimbrel. He needs and work and has not earned that "only in save situations" primadonna horsefeathers
  15. Bertz
    Contract the Marlins
  16. Bertz
    That definitely was the plan and over 162 things probably would’ve been sorted out with a few arms internally and 1-3 acquired arms that a solid pen is formed. In 60 games/not having a full spring, it’s tough and basically impossible to go with that plan unless a few guys just catch heaters. Wonder what a trade deadline is going to look like, gonna assume it's not much with over half the league making the playoffs. Even the Marlins might not be out by then given their week off here. It's going to be weird. I imagine there will be a good bit of activity, but very little money changing hands. Also, unless the expanded Arizona Fall League is able to move forward, any notable prospects traded will have to be players to be named later. Pro scouts aren't allowed to attend the alternate sites, so teams would have to be comfortable seeing on video and via statcast if prospects they liked pre-pandemic still have the qualities they like today.
  17. Bertz
    In low leverage spots like this you try your high upside guys to see if they're a thing. Maples and Winkler each 100% need to be a part of this game. If Kimbrel is recovered from Monday he does too, if not you probably give Norwood his last chance to make a good impression.
  18. Bertz
    I was thinking this as well. I have really liked the 30 man roster when combined with the 3 batter minimum. We're seeing teams have real benches again, and because of the three batter rule there hasn't been a stupid number of relievers. Maybe 28 is better, to make sure there is still incentive to have starters regularly go 5+, but I just generally like the expanded roster.
  19. Bertz
    So, in addition to the Cubs now being in first place, because they've played the Brewers and Reds while the other three contenders have all had series against the Pirates or Tigers, the Cubs now have the easiest remaining strength of schedule per Fangraphs. It's not a huge difference, looks like about a quarter of a win over 55 games, but with such tight margins it matters. The Cubs now project as a .545 win % team versus .535 at the start of the season (an 88 win team versus an 87). That's partly performance so far and partly partly the schedule.
  20. Bertz
    Looks like the outbreak is thankfully contained to the Marlins. I think this speaks to the fact that the game itself between the lines actually lends itself pretty well to preventing spread
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    The Padres are super fun. They've been my west coast MLB.tv team in the early going this year
  23. Bertz
    Yup. Also this I consider this a good process bad results kinda night for the pen.
  24. Bertz
    Holy horsefeathers that was dominant
  25. Bertz
    That puts a lot of pressure on Carlos Martinez in the rotation. Something he hasn't done in nearly two years to the day, and something he hasn't been particularlu good at since 2017
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