Bertz

One of the fortunate things about this all happening now is that for pitchers at least they can still be pretty productive in their training without stepping onto a real field. I don't think turning into a spin rate god in a warehouse is the same as doing it on the field, but if you told me that pitchers are still able to get ~70% of their development this year because of trackman/rapsodo/etc. I'd believe you. Hitters though, I'd imagine it depends on what level of the minors they were slated for? For a kid in A Ball or Short season spending 5 extra months focused on getting jacked and cleaning up their mechanics is probably not bad. But the higher up in the minors you go the less I imagine that's a substitute for a real season. I hope that we're not stuck in a bad place, given how much of our prospect capital is position players who were slated for High A. That's too young to put most of them on the travel squad, but may be too old to have a lot to do off the field. Probably not, I'd guess AA is where you hit that point of severe diminishing returns, but I'd buy that it occurs earlier. I guess in that case pray that the AFL 2.0 is able to happen, and we send most of the Myrtle Beach Squad there.

I imagine that will be similar for most teams. Bank as many games as possible early in case of weather or virus later. Plus teams have the expanded rosters early on, so it's not as much of a grind as it would be under normal circumstances.

Update: Boob deleted his tweet because it was very misleading. Here is the quote in its proper context: Horsefeathering christ that's bad even by Nightengale standards.

In the Athletic this morning they said the FO basically wants to wait til closer to opening day and see the level of attrition before decide whether those last ten spots will go to more prospecty types or more to veterans floating around.

[tweet] [/tweet] To me, the two surprises are the inclusion of Chris Morel and the exclusion of some arms like Abbott. The latter is probably more of a "not yet" since they've only confirmed 50 of the 60 spots. Probably still trying to find the right balance of upper level higher probability arms like Keegan Thompson and Tyson Miller versus lower level stuff guys like Jensen and McAvene. For Morel, this obviously is a positive sign. I take it the org thinks he's closer to the top 5 of our org than the 10-15 range he's generally shown up in. I take it he really showed something in ST before things got called off.

Keith Law had an article in The Athletic today about how teams are going to develop minor leaguers this year. Basically what you expect (heavy focus on mechanics and conditioning, lots of Zoom calls), but thought this was interesting re: the 60 man roster

Yeah, there's an even bigger appreciation for live sports now than there was before. Even if it was iffy whether they'd agree pre Covid (which I doubt) it's a slam dunk now. I heard CBS lost multiple billions from advertisers when March Madness got scratched. I know for Comcast it's more about carriage fees, but I can't imagine they let any baseball go. Hell even the Dodgers finally got things figured out.

I would imagine so. I believe I saw that if Chicago stays in Phase 4 Wrigley can operate at 20% capacity. I think the big question would be whether the rooftops would be treated like an extension of Wrigley or like you said like a bar/restaurant. lightfoot already said that chicago won't allow it (20% at wrigley/major venues) for the foreseeable future Ah, that makes sense. I did think it would be super weird if they allowed Wrigley to open after being so careful about keeping the 606 and Lakefront open.

I would imagine so. I believe I saw that if Chicago stays in Phase 4 Wrigley can operate at 20% capacity. I think the big question would be whether the rooftops would be treated like an extension of Wrigley or like you said like a bar/restaurant.

I would expect that the DH doesn't affect Schwarber much this year. I think it would take both Souza and Heyward being really good to make Schwarber the primary guy. Happ and Caratini are the guys I think this most likely does something for. My expectation for Happ is that he can really hit, but isn't really a CF. In that case I'd guess he moves around a bit, but gets the majority of his time at DH. If Happ's solid on both sides, I think Caratini And Willson split catcher close to 50/50, and Willson grabs ~25 starts at DH to become a nearly every day player.

I wanted the DH, and for just this shortened season wanted the expanded playoffs, but I'm more than happy to give those up for the owners getting pantsed like this. I don't like Craig Edwards but this puts it pretty succinctly:

I assume this afternoon's hoopla is mainly so the owners can pull back on some of the other financial incentives (e.g. the Playoff Money) in order to move up to 66 games. I assume there'll either be an agreement tomorrow or a bunch of whining all weekend before a sudden agreement on Monday.

The purpose of a draft is like 90% salary suppression, 5% competitive balance, and 5% ratings. Given that the MLBPA already agreed to capped salaries for like an omelette bar or some horsefeathers, I have 0 issue with an international draft at this point.

Or maybe more getting closer than actually done

It's happening

Probably the small market teams Yeah, it's probably the small market owners, with maybe a few of the especially crotchety ones (e.g. Lerner or Reinsdorf) who are offended that the players grew a backbone. We call him PTR for a reason. As horsefeathers as he and his family are the Cubs will still make money this season and so that's gonna override anything else.

:shock:

I still lean towards this all mostly being posturing. I'd guess the owners want that extra playoff TV money more than anything else, and the players are clearly fine with 70-something games at pro rated salaries.

Good on the players for not (yet) folding. I'll be honest I figured the owners would cave in exchange for the extra playoff $. Really does seem they're in a "can't let the players win" uber alles kinda zone right now. Fine, cut off your nose to spite your face.

I don't remember seeing any mock drafts that had us selecting Nico in 2018? That came as a complete shock to me and I was angry initially. Like I'm sure Red Sox fans felt the same way this year lol. It wasn’t the name that was mocked, but Nico was mentioned in the blurb after the mock pick. I remember thinking how boring that pick would be if it was him. I didn’t expect that pick either, but someone had made the connection leading up to the draft. Yeah, this is how I remember it too. I remember thinking "I hope they mean for our 2nd pick"

A GM, I believe Jon Daniels, was interviewed about this. They weren't sure about how much change was going to be allowed to, but it sounded like he was expecting a minimal amount. Because of that he said that the extra spots are mostly going to go to guys who you'd be cool getting into a MLB game rather than top prospects. So for us, Marquez and Abbott are obvious ads, as some of our top prospects and close enough to be legitimate depth for this year (particularly as relievers). Despite their limited pro track records, I'd imagine Jensen and McAvene will be at least considered. And Carraway is definitely getting added after signing. Beyond that it's probably going to be guys who were ticketed for Iowa. On the position player side, I imagine it's going to be the Giambrones of the world. I do imagine they add Brennen Davis though. You absolutely do not want him in an MLB game this year, but as one of our top 4 I think it's worth not having him sit a full year.

So yeah, I really really like this draft class. - Howard wasn't my guy, but is a great pick. He is someone who in a normal year would be a top 10 talent. He wasn't because A) this was an exceptionally strong draft and B) because of the lack of looks this spring college guys with longer track records all understandably got moved up the board - Carraway was arguably the best reliever in the draft, in advance of a season that will feature ~15 man bullpens. You are sacrificing some upside for just a reliever, but they grabbed plenty of upside later - Nwogu is boom or bust, but he could be so so so fun. The system desperately needed some power and he provides it. And coming from a big time college program I'm guessing they've got all kinds of analytics on him. I'm also assuming he'll end up in center rather than left... my understanding is that if you have the requisite athleticism center is actually the easiest from a skill perspective. So while it sounds like Nwogu's a bit of a doofus out there currently, he should be able to make it work with more reps and coaching. I mean isn't the list of fast guys who couldn't eventually make CF work basically Carl Crawford? - Little's probably less exciting than the 105 MPH headlines, but he's exciting. I have no problem with the Cubs being the team that corners the market on LH velocity - If we had had skimped elsewhere to pay for Moreno I'd have been a little pissed, but getting him in the fifth while generally playing the draft straight is super exciting. Good arm to add to our decent stock at the lower levels One of the other things I like about this draft is I think these guys are better suited than a lot of prospects would be to there not being a minor league season. Carraway is obviously going to be on the 50 man roster and part of the bullpen taxi squad. Nwogu and Little have mechanical issues to work on. Howard and Moreno as HS guys likely wouldn't get into real games until next year anyways. I'm sure it wasn't the primary consideration when picking them, but it's a nice bonus. Also agreed on the viewer experience piece. It sucks because I liked this A LOT more. Because it was shorter it was more digestable, and I liked that essentially everyone picked had a real scouting report. Obviously the reasons for the draft being shortened are gross and nefarious, but the result is admittedly kind of nice.