Bertz

Brown+change for Glasnow feels right. That said I wonder if with the litany of injuries the Rays have had at SP the higher floor/lower ceiling of Assad might be preferable. Assad and a stronger 2nd piece might be a win/win from both the Rays and Jed's perspective?

Heyward played in 124 games last year, batted 377 times, and only 28 of those were against lefties. That is a level of platoon protection I've never seen before. Dave Roberts gets slept on as a manager but that's some really optimal usage to get the most out of a guy.

I was actually just looking at Stephenson this weekend when Hader got brought up. This feels like the type of guy who is out of Jed's comfort zone to acquire but now with Counsell aboard he might stretch to do it?

This might be an overcorrection, but after Madrigal I'll never doubt someone can play 3rd on the basis of arm-strength again. I think the offense is what has me most excited. A lot of what he did last summer was just beat up on guys he should have. But even at Tenn where he got challenged a bit he had a 6.7% swinging strike rate, which for MLB reference is tied with Jose Ramirez, and had a 17.6% HR/FB rate, which again for an MLB equivalent was tied with Nick Castellanos. Obviously doing that at AA =/= doing it at MLB, but even giving ground as he moves up the ladder we're legitimately looking at a guy who has 20+ HR power and will strike out ~15% of the time. We haven't had one of those since Rizzo, and we haven't had a RHH one since Aramis. So like even if Shaw doesn't walk at all that's an exciting wrinkle to add to our lineup. I'm a *huge* believer in lineup diversity. I firmly believe there are some add on effects to having e.g. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie back-to-back in a lineup. Jed's baseball aesthetic clearly tends towards guys on the Caissie end of the spectrum, which makes guys in the org like Shaw that much more valuable.

On the one hand, it's objectively hilarious that the Cardinals were like "we need more power arms" and then did this. On the other hand it's not a bad rotation? And Mozeliak handed out very few year. And that's never stopped being a strong group of position players to go with it. There's some age related risk on both sides of the ball, but they look like a wildcard team. And they're the division favorites until Jed adds 10ish WAR.

It's less the $12M and more the 2nd guaranteed year. Though Gibson was 1 and a club option so maybe Maeda isn't a sign everyone in this tier will get multi-year deals.

Maeda is super underrated, but if that's what guys of his ilk are getting then scenarios where Jed trades a bunch of young pitching away and needs to backfill the #5 starter spot with a vet get that much less attractive.

I think this is true, but the trap a lot of fans fall into is treating stars like superstars. Regular stars are very much guys who you should be really mindful of when and which you sign. I think the fanbase is falling into this trap with Bellinger now and was doing it with Stroman back in June. But like Ohtani is the super-est of superstars. He is a unicorn and not particularly close to being an edge case. He is absolutely a "sign him and figure the rest out later" guy, and if he's not I'm not sure who is.

Nah this is unusually chilly. Only having Nola signed amongst the big boys is normal, but having so little done amongst the mid and lower tiers of FA by Thanksgiving is very abnormal

It's not crazy that a lot of stuff is being held up by Ohtani, but I'm surprised things have been *this* dead. But yeah at this point seems pretty clear that position player stuff won't move until Ohtani signs, and I wonder if pitching is going to wait for Yamamoto and Imanaga?

He looks pretty done. Fastball barely over 90, low spin rates, not a crazy release point. I think the world of Hottovy but doesn't look like a lot of raw material to work with there.

Eno Sarris laid a good case out for something in the $450M range I do expect something north of $500M because of marketing and because $/WAR isn't quite linear, but I don't think it's a slam dunk.

Counterpoint to the "start with command and add stuff" plan is a guy like Caleb Kilian. He had pinpoint command of 91-92 and now at 95 his command is more or less unplayable. That's not to say it can't work, as 1908 pointed out Cleveland has been *extremely* successful running that exact playbook over the last 10 years, but mostly to say there's no free lunch with this stuff.

I really doubt it, but the Athletic did report that with Counsell on board Jed is softening his "no multi-year deals for relievers" stance. I would still tend to think that maxes out at something like what the Braves gave Reynaldo Lopez though.

Mets Radio play by play guy I believe. So like not a rumor guy but very much not a rando.

It wouldn't be that hard to pivot to something a little more pitching and defense-forward. Like you could do something like Bichette, Bellinger, Glasnow, and one of the second tier SPs (Imanaga?) for $80M. You wouldn't have that monster bat we all want but that's a similar lineup to last year, an even better defense, and a hell of a rotation. That said, I am all in on Ohtani or Soto, and will be pretty disappointed with an offseason that doesn't include one of them even if it's comparable on paper.

It was hard not to think about Caissie every time Evan Carter came up to the plate this October. For the past two years any time I've looked at Caissies performance in the context of his age Carter was the only guy ahead. Caissie looks like about as safe a bet to be an impact hitter as there is, not just in the org but in the minors. You mention 70 grade power, but it might be 80 grade by maturity. He hit, IIRC, 117 MPH last season. Only 26 guys have crossed that line in the last three years. And at 20 years old that aspect of his game should be improving still. The patience too looks pretty elite. Tbe contact draws a lot of hand-wringing, but I think those concerns are overstated. We don't have full plate discipline numbers for the minor leagues, so people have to settle for K rate. But K-rate =/= contact rate. A guy running an elite walk rate is going to inherently be in a lot of deep counts, which will lead to a lot of Ks. We do have swinging strike rate for MiLB, and Caissie was 35th out of 64 guys in the Southern League this year. Caissie is not a Joey Gallo or Patrick Wisdom level contact bat. He's more Kyle Schwarber, who has bad but not awful contact rates but runs huge K numbers dye to walks. Schwarber is the cautionary tale for Caissie though. He had only occasionally been an elite bat, and as a bottom of the defensive spectrum guy you need an elite bat to exceed the 2.5 WAR neighborhood. I'd expect Caissie to provide more defense than Schwarber, though not a ton. But there's pressure on the bat to be like a 130 wRC+ or better for him to be an impact player. That's a tall order for any minor league hitter, and so like several others in the system even though I like him a ton if we need to move him so be it.

Relevant to this ongoing discussion we've got a projection for Bichette: a SLG-heavy .800 OPS AND 3.9 WAR. Relatedly that Brandon Belt projection is very nifty for a guy who's going to get something like 1/$10-15M. He's my guy if our big move on offense is a RHH such as Bichette.

I waffle basically every day on Alcantara. TT's previously laid out a good case for trading him now, yet at the same time he is one of three guys (along with PCA and Horton) in the minors where a superstar possibility feels relatively realistic. I think ultimately I would trade him, but it has to be for a star. Even if on paper Alcantara can be moved in a deal for someone boring like Patrick Sandoval, I feel like the upside just would make me hate it. If he takes his star turn in another org I want to be able to go "well we got Juan Soto out of it so who gives a horsefeathers".

Yeah let's not go crazy on what Bichette costs. Bichette was 48th in MLB in position player WAR last year. Ian Happ, who half the fanbase wants to fire into the sun, was 56th. A Bichette trade will hurt, but let's not act like it'll be something wild like what the Nats got for Juan Soto.

So looking at the Blue Jays roster and their prospect list on FG, they do have reinforcements coming behind Bichette. Their #2, #4, and #6 prospects are SS's/3B's who have reached AAA. They could also shift Espinal to SS and give Cavan Biggio more of a fulltime look at 2B. Their OF looks pretty bleak organizationally besides Varsho and Springer. Like FG has Nathan Lukes, who was a 28 year oold rookie last year, as their starting LF. So if you do something like PCA, Nick Madrigal (as a bridge infielder), and some pitching, I can see how that makes sense from Toronto's POV? Like I wouldn't do it given where they are in the win curve, but it's not completely nuts. On our side Bichette obviously does a ton. There simply aren't options available at 1B/DH that offer his level of impact at such a low salary. I'll also say as someone very anti-Bellinger if we add Bichette for PCA he suddenly makes wayyyyyy more sense on this roster.

I would think so. They currently here at the outset of the offseason project for the 5th most WAR in baseball. They're going to want major league impact right away. Mayyyybe PCA since he's MLB ready right this second?

Cards were the runner up on David Price I believe? So there's some precedent there for them actually being willing to shell out on a top of the market SP option. That said, I'm a bit worried about Jed offering the dollars necessary but Yamamoto ultimately not wanting to come to Chicago. Him wanting to spend the next 8-10 year of his life in St. Louis feels....significantly more unlikely.