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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'm also very much of the mind that the Braves will regret doing so many extensions. We've seen how quickly an all-world core of players can wilt, and the Braves basically don't have an off ramp until the end of the decade.
  2. Bertz
    It's been reported that Bellinger's GF is days away from giving birth, so Nelly is presumably staying up through at least Cody's paternity list stint Brandon Hughes pitched yesterday for Iowa, so while not far off he's likely not coming back tonight The Estrada news, if true, likely means either baby Bellinger's here or two position players are on the way out (Torrens and Rios?)
  3. Bertz
    Even though his season to this point has been one kind of bad start and one really bad start, both sets of pitch modeling data for Hayden are mostly unmoved from where they were last year. The cutter is getting better grades and the change up worse, but they see him as largely the same dude. And they LOVE him. I worry a bit about platoon issues, he didn't have them last year but with his repertoire you'd expect some. I also am currently worried that he might have gotten a little out in front of his skis in adding velo this offseason and there will be Kilian-esque impacts on his command. But honestly? The preponderance of evidence is that he's a number 2 starter right now. He's probably really good, no forecasting or wishing required.
  4. Bertz
    Me seeing 11 runs for Iowa through 4 innings and then checking the box score to see what actually happened was like the Anakin/Padme meme
  5. Bertz
    I'd love to steal this series. The Dodgers do not appear to have fixed Thor, and Michael Grove is their version of like Assad. Win these first two games and win that A's series you're supposed to and you can live with a little bit of ugliness during that block with the Dodgers/Padres back to back
  6. Bertz
    Wow, I didn't remember that being so brutal but you're totally right. He signed his extension in the offseason and then in that very same spring training got dealt. I remember people being mad about that one but thought there was at least a year in there between.
  7. Bertz
    I can't think of any examples of it happening within like a year. It occasionally happens a little further out, Nolan Arenado was a notable example when he got traded right around two years after signing his deal. There's definitely a honeymoon period of a few years before it starts shifting back to "what makes the most business sense"
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
    So thinking about what this does for the upcoming offseason. The Cubs have the following on the books: $91M in fully guaranteed contracts to Swanson, Taillon, Happ, Seiya, and Hoerner $40M in contracts where the player has an opt out with Stroman, Mancini, and Smyly $22M in Club Options for Hendricks and Gomes $3.25M Player Option for Barnhart $25M in random costs like player benefits, Bote's AAV, etc. 8 arb eligible guys, but none should make significant money. Mayyybe Wisdom cracks $5 because of the dongs or one of Adbert/Heuer rack up a bunch of saves? It's impossible to say which options/opt outs will get exercised at this point, but the over under on payroll heading into the offseason is probably about $150M?
  10. Bertz
    Davis actually has in the early going here his lowest swinging strike rate since he was 19 in low A. The elevated K rate is more of a deep counts thing IMO. The parallels at the moment with Cody Bellinger are actually really deep. Coming into the year I was primarily worried about contact. Both guys have improved their YoY contact numbers significantly while still walking and maintaining a flyball heavy batted ball profile. Therefore I *think* both guys are trending up right now. If each guy didn't have the injury history and questions, you'd absolutely focus on the K/BB improvements and chalk up the soft contact to SSS. But they DO have the injury questions. Maybe they can't physically make contact and hit the ball with authority anymore, and the physical issues have relegated it to an either/or.
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    Let's see how Kohl pitches from the stretch. Because if he's ironed that issue out too he'll be at Tenn by Memorial Day
  13. Bertz
    Plate discipline/contact changes tend to be meaningful much faster than contact quality ones. So while Bellinger's had a bad start I think there's been more encouraging than discouraging thus far.
  14. Bertz
    I've generally been a critic of the idea of extending Happ, but that is not a lot of money or years so this works for me
  15. Bertz
    Pretty surprised at no roster move. All things considered the bullpen is not in a terrible place but still figured swapping out Rucker for a fresh arm was prudent
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    12.2 IP and only 3 runs for the pen the last two days
  18. Bertz
    I wouldn't boot someone from the 40 just for him, but when a 40 man spot opens up organically I'd bring up Burdi immediately. He's 30 no need to waste bullets down at Iowa if he's healthy and effective right now.
  19. Bertz
    Assuming Seiya comes back Friday, that'll have been exactly 7 weeks I believe
  20. Bertz
    "Lower left side tightness" per the broadcast So an oblique. Hopefully more cramp than strain
  21. Bertz
    If you can finish this up with Leiter and Merryweather it removes a lot of the need for roster machinations I was wringing my hands over earlier. Probably swap Estrada for Rucker and you're fine? Leiter and Alzolay would be the only guys in the pen down, and with Stroman pitching and an off day Thursday that should be fine?
  22. Bertz
    I mean with how much running he has done around the bases tonight most likely thing is a cramp right?
  23. Bertz
    Really curious to see what the roster moves are tomorrow. So Estrada is the only other short reliever on the 40 man (Hughes is pitching a rehab appearance right now). Assad could come up, but you'd have to IL someone (probably not an issue?). This seems most likely, assuming they think he's ready to go another 3ish innings. Kilian and Sampson started on Saturday and Sunday. Is tomorrow soon enough for one of them to give us 3ish innings if necessary? Ryan Jensen is on the 40 and slated to start tomorrow, do you bring him up? On the position player side, do you send Nelly down the game after he played hero? Do you finally cut bait with Torrens? That has the double benefit of opening up a 40 man spot for another Iowa reliever. You also need to be mindful of needing to activate Seiya presumably on Friday and Hughes a few days not long after that. Gonna be an interesting day, though if Adbert can efficiently eat another two innings maybe they dont have to do anything too dramatic.
  24. Bertz
    Yeah true. If we were a few innings later no chance, but given the circumstances probably have to.
  25. Bertz
    You still probably need to try and get two innings from Merryweather right? 4th and 5th Merryweather, then a bunch of the guys who worked last night can work again tonight. This game is gonna be brutal for whoever loses, because both pitching staffs are gonna be shredded tomorrow
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