Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I posted something tangential to this in a comment under one of Trueblood's articles but now that this is real I think it's worth thinking about more. If you want to read tea leaves on how confident the team is about extending Tucker, I think there's is a direct correlation between how much multi-year money the team adds from here and how likely it is that Tucker walks. Tucker and some unlikely Shota option decisions aside, there is no money set to come off the books after this year besides Tucker. So if the team has real expectations of extending Tucker, they'll primarily stick to 1 year deals aside from Kelly (you always need a veteran backup at C). Reason being you want to to have some money to spend in addition to a Tucker deal. So like if Castillo or Flaherty is our next SP that's a bearish sign for an extension, while a guy in his walk year I take as a positive.
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BTW can we all agree in advance to be chill when Paredes goes nuts in Houston, and to a lesser extent when Bellinger goes nuts in NYC?
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My ideal rest of winter I think would look like this (suspect ~$20M left to sepnd at the moment) - Bellinger +$5M for Warren (-$22M) - Assad + Caissie to the Padres for Michael King ($8M) - Finalize Kelly ($8M) and add Josh Rojas ($5M) and Randall Grichuk ($6M) - Sign Kirby Yates ($10M) plus another TBD reliever Hottovy thinks would be a fun project ($5M)
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The team *NEEDS* a good backup 3B if we're running Shaw out there. That said there are a couple available on the market and even with how tight funds are they can allocate $6-8M to buying some floor at the position.
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BTW after pushing for this Paredes/Tucker deal starting in like August do want to try and speak the next major trade into existence?
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Over the last two years, among guys with at least 1000 PAs, Tucker ranks 7th in wRC+ and Seiya ranks 19th. Dodgers, Braves, and Astros only other teams with more than 1 in the top 20. (Francisco Lindor is #21 and paired with Soto would add the Mets so I'm cheating a bit with the arbitrary endpoint)
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Hard to get too deep into specifics before we see the $$$ on the ensuing Bellinger deal, but with Iowa still being fully stocked trading for a fun SP should still be on the table.
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They were by the slimmest of margins before this, now between this and the Williams trade the margin is not especially slim. The Bellinger trade will temporarily cut it back down some.
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Wonder how immediate the Yankee trade is. We talking like the next hour or like tomorrow?
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If we presume that Bellinger for Warren follows, then this deal essentially got done without touching anything at Iowa.
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Also once this gets Passan'd this discussion should probably become a new thread
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Yeah this is fair. Assad also might have more value on account of being a no-doubt SP, and thus better to hang onto for the (hopefully) coming SP trade.
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Not the priority but if Assad can be the pitcher that'd be swell? I like Wesneski more in a swing role than Assad.
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From someone more reliable than Morosi this type of language would more or less mean it's done.
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Hmmm I thought Bohm was due closer to $15M. Still though We're talking ~$12M available once Kelly becomes official to add a SP, a RP, and a reserve IFer. The latter I guess you can punt to a kid (Workman presumably) but that's still tough.
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Right now, and it only gets worse with Paredes sent out, this team is really light on RHH power. Player-wise Bohm + Castellanos makes a lot of sense but financially I don't really see any way to make it work without just going "welp, this here is the pitching staff I guess."
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Damn you beat me to the punch!
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Nope
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I would think so. They had 7 viable SP and hour ago, which is what made dangling Gil so plausible. Trading another, and reportedly one of your best AAA depth guys in the Bellinger deal would feel dicey.
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We are not doing this horsefeathering dance again
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Assuming team is at $30M right now - Kelly makes 8ish - Paredes makes 7ish - Bellinger makes 27, but we send let's call it 5 so we save 22 net - Tucker makes 16 So by the end of the weekend we're at ~$35M to spend. From there spend $15M on another starter, $10M on a late inning reliever, and $10M across two bench guys. Viola
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I think there's likely to be ~$10M available to safely throw at the bench, assuming Ryan Pressly is not part of the Tucker deal.
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The risk/reward balance is probably not right but Moncada fits in this bucket as well. I like Rojas, but if we're not trading for a SP of substance pay a bit of a prospect premium to the Twins for Castro. That also helps backfill the CF insurance we lose with a Bellinger deal.
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Probably
