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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I would also guess that there's a good chance a condition of netting Sasaki is running a 6 man rotation (or something creative that treats him like he's in one). Even if you KNOW you're getting Sasaki you want 5 other SPs to pair with him.
  2. Bertz
    You have to be logged in to see the quoted tweet but basically a short thread from a Mets fan about Frankie Montas and how teams are more and more looking at pitchers as their arsenals instead of as their past performance. Feels just as relevant to Boyd as Montas
  3. Bertz
    I'll say going with a guy who is good on a rate basis but you're worried about volume makes the second SP feel pretty inevitable. I'd be tugging my collar a lot more if I'd woken up to like a Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn signing.
  4. Bertz
    Glad your article about platoon splits at Wrigley is linked here because it popped into my head as I was reading about him and I wanted to revisit it. Like you have up top, if this is the lesser of two SPs being added this winter this is a fun little signing. I expect pretty strong results on a per inning basis, but not a lot of innings. I think with the cadre of young arms the Cubs have, that's the perfect tradeoff to have from a back-end arm. Another nice thing about Boyd is unlike Drew Smyly he actually has proper platoon splits, so if he does back up performance wise and shifts into that vacated long relief role it feels a lot easier to leverage him.
  5. Bertz
    I'd presume we're trading for a SP now, and Boyd is going to slot in as the #2 guy from this winter. If not, woof obviously, but if so this is pretty fun. He got very successfully pitch labbed last year by Cleveland. Still in SSS which is why he didn't get paid more but he might be quite good. I'd imagine he functions as a sort of deluxe Smyly. I'm sure as part of signing he got assurances on a rotation spot, but I doubt he has an iron grip on it. Also with his durability questions ultimately ending up in the bullpen is very possible.
  6. Bertz
    Reading this has me wondering about Cody Bellinger for a bad contract AND another good player. For instance Cody Bellinger for Nick Castellanos, Jose Alvarado, and money to cover Castellanos' 2026 salary? Or Cody Bellinger for Jordan Montgomery and one of AZ's late inning arms (Ryan Thompson)? You're not freeing up money, but you're knocking a couple other items off the to-do list while keeping salary flat.
  7. Bertz
    Hopefully he has one of those Erick Fedde type journeys and comes back in two years the mid rotation starter we always hoped for.
  8. Bertz
    Michael Busch's 2023-2024 trajectory should be your median expectation for any big time hitting prospect at this point. - Really rough first month as you arrive in MLB - Really good month as you figure out how pitchers are attacking you and adjust - Another deep slump as pitchers adjust back - Figure out pitchers' round 2 gameplan, reach equilibrium and be roughly who you are with normal ebbs and flows going forward I think Matt Shaw is going to be significantly better offensively than Nico Hoerner in time. Something like a 120 wRC+. However in the early going he's going to have some real struggles as he adjusts to MLB. He's also not nearly the baserunner or defender Nico is. If you've got a plan where you deal Nico away and net a major upgrade elsewhere, fine let's run Shaw out there as the everyday 2B. But there is very little chance he's just straight up better than Hoerner in 2025.
  9. Bertz
    Offensively? It's probably close. Holistically? It's probably not.
  10. Bertz
    Doing things just for the sake of doing things or "switching things up" is a tried and true way to make a bad decision.
  11. Bertz
    I think building a bullpen of doom like you do here with Holmes and Hoffman is a fun end-around to some of the tough positions this offseason poses. Especially since our rotation is pretty innings-eater-y already, and Miller furthers that. Joc's interesting. On one hand I want that role to be a righty, on the other hand he's turned into a hell of a bat and should be grabbable on a 1 year deal like this. I don't love Lorenzen personally. I think if you're looking at SPs in that price range I'd look at guys who got successfully pitch labbed this past season but due to track record and durability still aren't going to make a ton of money. e.g. Matt Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, or Jakob Junis. With the young pitching we have, I'd prioritize 80-100 innings I feel really good about over 130-150 I don't.
  12. Bertz
  13. Bertz
    I think the fans are the only ones with a problem with them. The players are clearly agreeing to these deals when they don't have to.
  14. Bertz
    Nothing in here is worth starting a new topic for, but a couple things stood out to me: - Sharma and Mooney seemed pretty confident the team will make a trade of consequence. Not really any details on who, or even certainty it would be a SP. Sharma focused on the Mariners, and Mooney brought up Jordan Montgomery or one of the Twins SPs, but it all seemed spitbally - The team wasn't hot after Kikuchi. He's in the tier they're looking at but it sounded like they would basically "get around" to him. They also confirmed the rough level of investment the team is trying to make is $20-25M a year for 2-4 years. Sharma focused on Nate Eovaldi, but again it felt like putting pieces together and not reporting intent
  15. Bertz
    The rotation is realistically the only place to add bulk wins. - The bench and bullpen, while both clearly needing to be addressed, do not offer the playing time required to rack up a lot of impact - Every starting spot on the roster (sans arguably catcher) is filled with a quality first division starter. So the team specific replacement level is quite high, and purchasing WAR doesn't really translate much into added wins So if the team half asses it with the rotation, say adding Walker Buehler and calling it a day, we're basically locked in to a mediocre offseason. That's not the end of the world, the team would probably be modest favorites to win the division and with the crew at Iowa probably have as much additional upside as any team in the league. But it would very much be a missed opportunity and fly in the face of the "90 win projection" comments from the end of the season.
  16. Bertz
    Yes. Manaea, Severino, and Pivetta are three guys in the "upper middle class" Jed is reportedly eying who have a qualifying offer attached.
  17. Bertz
    I think our assumption should be that the SP market, at least in FA, will be pretty picked over by the end of the winter meetings. Boras isn't dragging his feet like last year, as both Snell and Kikuchi are Boras guys. Burnes and Manaea are both Boras guys, but I believe everyone else of note is with CAA or smaller agencies. There's not going to be the artificial delay we saw last year, at least not on the pitching side of things. So Jed's got to either move in the next ~2 weeks, or be comfortable boxing himself into a corner where he has to make a trade. I would think the play, even if you're wanting to deal Bellinger still, would be to get your big SP in house and let a Bellinger trade hold up/dictate your subsequent moves. You can always trade for relief and bench help in the event you get left holding the bag, but there's only so much SP inventory every winter.
  18. Bertz
    I am torn between loving Nate Eovaldi in isolation and hating an offseason where he's the headline move. I'd love some indication beyond wish casting around here that they're planning to both sign and trade for a starter. That still feels like the logical way to thread the needle between Jed/ownership's austerity impulses and the fans' desire for impact.
  19. Bertz
    Case in point even Justin Steele was a guy who got 2nd round money
  20. Bertz
    Echoing national reports, the local writers for The Athletic this morning indicated that the Cubs would be doing their offseason shopping in the "upper-middle" tier of the free agent market, trusting their pitching development to get the most out of their acquisition. Sharma and Mooney also indicated that the Qualifying Offer is a major factor of consideration in their targets, seemingly ruling out upper middle options like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea. Nate Eovaldi and Walker Buehler both get name checked as players who would fit the team's parameters, though it may also be that the Cubs instead turn to the trade market to do their shopping. View full rumor
  21. Bertz
    More information about "Cubs Looking At Free Agent Starters In The "Same Tier" As Shota Imanaga"
    Echoing national reports, the local writers for The Athletic this morning indicated that the Cubs would be doing their offseason shopping in the "upper-middle" tier of the free agent market, trusting their pitching development to get the most out of their acquisition. Sharma and Mooney also indicated that the Qualifying Offer is a major factor of consideration in their targets, seemingly ruling out upper middle options like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea. Nate Eovaldi and Walker Buehler both get name checked as players who would fit the team's parameters, though it may also be that the Cubs instead turn to the trade market to do their shopping.
  22. Bertz
    Again I won't fault anyone for assuming the worst about the Ricketts, but payroll has always been a stones throw from the luxury tax with these exceptions: - When the team was very bad - When the last core was ascending circa 2014-2015 and the team had so many pre-arb stars they basically couldn't spend to the tax - 2021 coming off of COVID and with major short term attendance questions Maybe the Comcast carriage deal is looking rocky and that will be the team's excuse for austerity. Again never put anything past Tom. But trying to trade Bellinger IMO doesn't say anything like that, and cutting Tauchman definitely doesnt. He's got very little playing time after PCA started hitting, there'snot much reason to think that would have changed in 2025. I was surprised he didn't have a bit of trade value, but there was very little shot in my mind of him making it to opening day.
  23. Bertz
    Rojas, at an extremely young age for his level, showed really good walk, strikeout, and groundball numbers. Fans having some Kevin Made or Aramis Ademan ptsd is not unreasonable, but it feels like with Rojas we're sort of just waiting on his man strength to kick in and how much defensive value he loses in the process. But he seems to have the approach to be a big time dude.
  24. Bertz
    There's a really tough line to walk with this team between continuing to add depth to a unit that got severely exposed last April/May and adding filler that blocks potential impact arms like Palencia. It's not too dissimilar from adding to the lineup actually. The current bullpen group is one or two arms short, depending on the quality of the first arm added. If you add one impact arm (Clay Holmes?), it feels like aside from the normal minor league free agents you can probably call it a day. If you skimp on that top guy, let's say you end up with Jose LeClerc because I saw someone on Twitter stumping for him, I think you *need* another arm beyond him. That has the knock on effect of making it tougher to incorporate a Palencia or a Neely.
  25. Bertz
    So never count out the Ricketts finding ways to disappoint, but the linking of Bellinger trade rumors with "payroll is going down" feels reactionary. Anyone who's tried to game out this offseason (say with a certain website's handy payroll blueprint tool) can see things are really tight even with payroll being flat at the LT. If you want Jed to make substantial improvements this winter, which everyone seems to, the options are to free up money or expend a good bit of prospect capital. Bellinger is easily the most logical choice for the former. There's also the simple fact that money becomes less useful the deeper into FA we get into FA, so what Boob framed as desperation might be more like urgency.
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