Bertz

I think the difference between what Passan actually said here and what the local guys said last week is pretty negligible.

We actually managed to keep our Japanese import from last offseason healthy?

You know who is an incredible, glove perfect fit for this roster? Randal Grichuk. Even as I've been unable to shut up about a lefty masher all offseason, because of his Cardinals tenure combined with not being able to cover 1B (and pre-Bellinger some 1B coverage felt pretty necessary), I've completely ignored him. But he DEMOLISHES lefties. His wRC+ is 150 against them over the last three years, in nearly 500 PAs too so not really small sample size. It comes with power too, 25 dongs (a 30 per 600 PA pace) and a .573 slugging. Defensively the story is a bit mixed. His speed is still fine, and DRS makes it seem like he was trash at Coors field but can handle himself elsewhere. Statcast thinks he has been pretty awful even after leaving. I'd believe anything from pure DH to "can still fake it in CF," but one of the bonuses to Bellinger opting in is on this roster any defense this guy provides is purely a bonus. He also feels pretty unequivocally like a bench player, there shouldn't be any messiness about offering X amount of playing time like you might have with certain other options.

You know what, kudos to them for keeping me on my toes. They knew I was braced for something like Chase Strumpf at #14 but they had another trick up their sleeve.

I honest to god have no idea if this is a great joke or if you're being serious

This is suspiciously normal. Where's the signature BA nonsense? Is Brailyn Marquez #11 or something.

Gut feeling: The Dodgers-Soto stuff doesn't have a lot of legs and it's mostly Boras using them as a boogeyman so neither NYC team gets comfortable thinking it's realistically a two horse race. I'd peg them for something more like Willy Adames, re-signing Teoscar, and a pitcher

I wish I could find it, but there was an article earlier this year talking about Imanaga’s transition, and it mentioned that with experience the Cubs have gotten really good at all the soft hospitality type things with their Japanese players. I remember an anecdote about the post game food. A lot of teams don't provide anything Japanese, and even some teams that do it might be like a couple pre-packed sushi rolls from the case at Whole Foods. The Cubs have like actual meals for Shota and Seiya and the interpreters. If you're placing odds it should be like 30-40% Dodgers, 40-50% anywhere else on the West Coast. But I think you could make an argument for the Cubs being the top option among markets that don't touch the Pacific. Seiya seems to like it here, Darvish liked it here, seems like Shota frigging LOVES it here.

Dodgers have to be considered the favorite, though you do have to wonder if the idea of going somewhere that he'd be 3rd billing would work against them. Padres feel like the next most likely. West Coast, gets to hang with his idol, continue building that Yankees/Red Sox style deal they've got over there. Beyond that I think you have to always assume West Coast by default. The Darvish stuff does give us more of a chance than I thought. Imanaga mentioned that Darvish recommended Chicago pretty profusely. And I think having Imanaga and Suzuki here already obviously helps.

Looks like Eric Longehagen is going to do his Cubs prospect list early this year instead of June like the last two years

I'm becoming pretty adamantly two starters pilled. One via trade one via FA. - It makes settling in FA less problematic. For instance Nate Eovaldi as a big fish is a very disappointing offseason. Nate Eovaldi paired with any the Mariners is one hell of a rotation upgrade - Similarly, you can feel empowered to be a bit more creative in the trade. For instance, I love Trueblood's Griffin Jax idea. But you simply cannot do that and then consider the rotation finished. You can't really even just pair him with a boring innings eater. As tantalizing as the upside is, it's a move where you have to insulate yourself both on innings and performance - Aside from catcher, where the market sucks, and some bench/bullpen spots (where playing time make racking up WAR tough) Assad as a definite SP is pretty clearly the weakest link on the roster - It's a way to use some of the asset depth at Iowa while still adding a longer term asset - It can be done somewhat independently of anything else, it's not something that e.g. only works if you can sign Alex Bregman first

The Athletic Guys have been putting out a lot this week. If you add it all up, I think this is the takeaway in terms of offseason plan/direction - Starting pitcher is the top item on the to-do list and where the team plans to invest the most resources. That probably means someone pretty top of market, but the team does trust their pitching development so it may end up someone mid market who they just really like (such as Imanaga). - Pitching depth has been mentioned A LOT. This certainty applies to the bullpen, where Jed said something to the extent of "we should just assume 3 relievers will get hurt in April again" but I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to SP as well. I wonder if the big SP comes via trade if they do someone like Shane Bieber on top of that - The team is looking to do some heavy lifting in trades. That said if you circle back to Jed's end of season press conference, plus his last two big trades, he's mentioned that he prefers getting team control when giving up major talent - Catcher is a certainty to be addressed. After Amaya's strong second half though it will no longer be someone like O'Hoppe, instead expect one of the veteran FAs like d'Arnaud, Jansen, or Kelly - The team is not worried about Hoerner, so don't expect a starting caliber 2B addition. They do want a LHH infielder for the bench though - Nothing else about the offense has really been brought up. So either the team is being tight lipped or it's low priority. I would assume at minimum someone in the Patrick Wisdom mold is on the way?

It's two things, neither of which make it any less silly: - Adames is unequivocally the best players at his position in his free agent class - Adames is a 30 homer guy rather than a 25 homer guy. Nevermind that he's worse overall

Bregman is a good hitter, but if you look at what he's done post juiced ball he's more Ian Happ than star. And Ian Happ at 2B would be great, but Bregman will probably be a below average at 2B (in addition to the lack of experience he's slowed down A LOT). You probably get similar net production to Hoerner, but trade 15 runs of defense for 15 runs of offense. Worth considering in a vacuum, but worth getting older and substantially more expensive? Adames feels even more silly. He has a 108 wRC+ the last three years, Hoerner is at 105. You are getting A LOT more homeruns, but you're barely getting better overall.

This feels like a lot of money to barely, if at all, upgrade the team?

In addition to the kids, I think there's some argument for doing one of Happ or Suzuki. One of the medium term concerns with this roster is the cliff after 2026. Right now Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, Taillon and, if he doesn't opt out next winter Bellinger, all become FAs. Plus several of the bench/bullpen types. That's a lot of talent to see head out the door all at once. I wonder if you could do a minor extension with Happ or Suzuki. Something like guarantee salary for '27 while adding a club option for '28?

One thing I just realized: whether intentional or not the Cubs' offseason does not necessarily need to run through Scott Boras. Burnes, Snell, and Kikuchi are Boras clients, but the rest of the prominent SPs including Fried aren't. Bellinger opting in means the team isn't playing in the waters of guys like Pete Alonso. Bregman went out the windows with the Paredes trade. Like I don't know the agent of every reliever and bench guy, but Kikuchi and maybe Tyler O'neill are the only guys that feel like potential Jed targets, are Boras clients, and are slated to make enough money to be subject to potentially be part of any shenanigans.

I'd presume at least one of those SPs would go back to Seattle in a deal, so it'd be sort of depth-neutral. What you'd be doing is adding talent (or at minimum certainty) to that 5th starter spot. Given how settled things are on the position player side, I tend to think it's actually one of the most effective ways to bulk add wins to this roster.

Part of the problem with Caissie is that while he's the most clearly blocked right now, we have essentially zero LHH power behind him in the system. Like there's nothing at Tenn, at SB I guess you could hope on Edgar Alvarez going all Johnny Long on us next year, and then Ramon or Escobar at Myrtle? It's not enough that you can flat refuse to move him, but I do think that moving Alcantara would be preferable. Triantos has gotten favorable reviews in limited time in center, and with his contact/speed combo and ability to at least nominally play the infield more naturally slides into a reserve role.

I'm going to stump for Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo a bit. I do not at all consider them consolation prizes Bryce Miller: - Is one of only 21 pitchers to top 180 innings last year. He started 29 games last year (major plus minors) and 26 the year before that. It is about as clean of an arm as you'll find, and at 26 should be past the first "injury nexus" - Among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Miller is 14th in Stuff+ overall, and 4th on his fastball specifically. If you don't like the pitch models, he's 33rd in just pure fastball velo, two spots behind Zack Wheeler - Throws a lot of strikes (75th percentile) and yet still gets a ton of swing and miss within the strike zone (74th percentile) - The one singular negative I can find on him is some pretty stark home/road splits this year. Given part of Safeco's deal is a wonky batters eye it's worth looking into more Bryan Woo: - Throws even more strikes than Miller, in fact is second in the league behind only Justin Steele. His in zone swing and miss is pretty average (52nd percentile) but you could potentially juice that by simply not throwing such an overwhelming number of pitches in the zone and fishing for chase a bit more - Seriously, he throws so many strikes. His walk rate was the lowest in baseball this year - Woo is 30th in Stuff+, and 39th in raw fastball velo - You need more innings to be sure this is skill, but he to this point has generated a lot of soft contact - Like Miller, there are some notable home/road splits. It's not necessarily a problem, some people just find more comfort at home, but with Seattle being involved it raises an eyebrow I would probably widen the ring of guys I'd move Shaw for to include Miller. Woo, being a half step behind Miller pretty much all around, I think would be just outside. But broadly Jed should absolutely look into all of these guys. Getting one AND making a big FA splash would give you a rotation with a very good chance for being the best in the league while still leaving resources for the other items on the offseason to-do list.

I think you should take the under on nearly any 1B prospect, but especially one without stupid power. But he's on the right side of the age relative to league equation, he's got great K/BB numbers, good Statcast numbers, and of course the patience and contact numbers, and of course the actual production. A year ago I didn't know who he was, and now he's a guy in the 10-15 range of a really good farm. Something in the Christian Walker neighborhood feels like an imminently reasonable outcome.

With the way that it's so easy to fit Shaw onto the roster in addition to his actual resume, he's pretty close to untouchable for me. But for any of the Mariners young guys? For them we can talk.

It makes sense, of the quintet of bats at Iowa Caissie is the guy likely most able to step in and take a job from jump on opening day. At the same time he's got the toughest short term path to everyday at bats. I will say, given that it looks like the club isn't prioritizing adding a power bat trading the guy at Iowa with the most power does feel like it comes with particula potential to blow up in our faces.

It's wild how few alternatives there are to Castro. Lefty infielders are apparently all stars or scrubs at this point. If you miss on him it's a wide gap to a bunch of guys in the Cavan Biggio tier. I agree I think he is the guy this winter where I am most locked in on a specific name and not an idea or a tier of players. On trade, I really liked Trueblood's trade for Griffin Jax and make him a starter idea. That would really juice the upside in the 5th starter spot, but has the nice safe fallback of returning him to the pen where he's dominant. It would also, to the broader convo, be something that would require cashing in some of the trade chips.