Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,389

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    29

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'm not an authority, but I wrote up Miller and Woo about a month ago Both are very very fun arms. I like Miller more than Woo, but Woo has a lot of big fans too (I know Eno Sarris for instance lusts after him quite a bit).
  2. Bertz
    I am generally anti trading Nico. That said I do think the Mariners are the one team where you can form a deal that makes sense. For instance I wrote this up a few weeks ago
  3. Bertz
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere. Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well. No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target. One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield. Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him? View full rumor
  4. Bertz
    More information about "Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade"
    Because of the logical fit, a Mariners/Cubs swap of infielders for starting pitching has been oft discussed in the blog-o-sphere. Turns out it has been discussed in real life as well. No specific names are mentioned from Seattle's side, but it's hard to imagine someone other than one of their young starting pitchers being Jed's target. One potential wrinkle is that the Mariners seem to prefer addressing first and third base rather than the middle infield. Would Hoerner move over to third base? Or is Hoerner uniquely talented enough that they would move someone else internally over to the hot corner to accommodate him?
  5. Bertz
    It's two injuries to the same part of his body, and that elbow has now totally been replaced. Acting like he's Jacob deGrom with a medical chart a mile long is exactly what I was referring to.
  6. Bertz
    Ah, so we're holding him responsible for Covid too?
  7. Bertz
    Fans definitely are not comfortable doing anything beyond just averaging yearly MLB innings when thinking about injury risk. Saw it with Glasnow discussions last year, Boyd this year. If you have the audacity to have a mid year arm surgery that impacts two different seasons you get shat on way more than cleanly missing a single calendar year.
  8. Bertz
    Based on Fangraphs current depth charts, the Cubs have the #18 rotation in baseball right now. It's not quite as bad as that sounds, there are 6 teams ahead of them by less than a win. But still it's an average to below average rotation right now, with youth you can hope on for more but not count on. If you swap Assad and Kilian's 167 innings and 1.3 WAR for Crochet's 170 innings and 4.9 WAR, the Cubs jump all the way to #4, a couple tenths of a win behind the Braves.
  9. Bertz
    I wouldn't consider either to be a rumor, but both Kiley McDaniel and Jim Bowden wrote up "Trades I'd make" type columns today and sent Cody to the Astros. I guess that fit from the Astros perspective is more attractive than I've been giving it credit for.
  10. Bertz
    Honestly I think the Boyd signing makes it very easy to trade a starter without worrying about backfill. Like I this is the SP depth chart if we acquire a new guy: MLB SP - Steele, Shota, New Guy, Taillon, Boyd MLB LRP - Assad Iowa SP - Wicks, Brown, Horton, Birdsell, Noland And this assumes the door is shut on Wesneski and Kilian starting. Like no such thing as too much pitching, but I think we can comfortably move one young arm this winter. And I wouldn't be comfortable doing it but it wouldn't be totally reckless to consider moving a second in the right circumstances.
  11. Bertz
    I've generally been under the assumption that any SP trade this winter is going to be a Panera style "You Pick 2" where the other team gets one of the Iowa bats and one of the Iowa/pre-arb arms. There are limitations, like I'm not giving up Shaw or Brown (my favorite bat and arm respectively) in a Jesus Luzardo trade, but that's my rough mental model. For Crochet? No limits from me. I'd try and push towards three slightly lesser pieces, e.g. Alcantara/Caissie/Assad instead of Shaw/Brown. But ultimately this feels like an opportunity to *really* move the needle, and at a time where the farm is deep enough to take the hit mostly in stride. Two years of ace level production for $10-15M total at a time where patroll is a bit inflexible is probably only behind a Soto signing as potential impact moves likely to be available over the next 24 months.
  12. Bertz
    Eric Longenhagen, who lives in AZ and thus has a very up to date scouting report based on Moises' time in the AFL, recently said this I still think something in the Mitch Garver mold makes sense. He gets maybe one dedicated guy in the rotation that he catches every time, and gets some assorted time after late inning roster moves, but is primarily a 1B/DH.
  13. Bertz
    This is very much blunt and imperfect, but the league average FIP 1st time through the order for SPs was 3.92 this year. Overall FIP for SPs was 4.15. About a quarter of a run. Crochet's FIP 1st time through the order from July onward was 3.10. So even if we add on that typical penalty he's a fairly elite SP (Max Fried had a 3.33 FIP this year for instance). Hell even if we double it he's in line with Corbin Burnes, Tanner Bibee, and Bryce Miller in the 3.50s.
  14. Bertz
    I think the answer is pretty clearly that Assad either becomes trade bait or sees his role reduced. If Jed had signed some $5-8M arm like Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez I think you could see some sort of competition. But at $14M the team clearly likes Boyd and he is getting a rotation slot and likely a decent amount of leash. Assad has been a valuable member of the club the last few years and seems like a good dude. But there have been glaring markers for regression the entire time. I know Trueblood found some interesting stuff around him using the fat part of the field on fly balls, but that feels very much "here's what happened" vs. "this is a skill." We should assume Assad's ERA should more or less match his peripherals going forward. And while in '23 his peripherals said "league average SP" last year they slid and were paired with a drop in velo. Javier is/was the weakest member of the team slated to get full time play, and Jed presumably replacing him with Boyd is a sign of the aggressiveness we've been begging him to show more of.
  15. Bertz
    The teams are an absolute perfect match on paper. Acquiring an impact talent on a $3M salary is Jed's dream move, while the Sox would clearly like to be able to show progress this year with near MLB ready talent. TBD if the Sox are willing to suffer the PR or Jed is willing to win a likely fierce bidding war, but the deal makes all kinds of sense.
  16. Bertz
    Oops, slow on the draw, please delete
  17. Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs. Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper. The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency. Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget. From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year. Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order. View full rumor
  18. Bertz
    This morning, MLB Network's JP Morosi lists the Cubs along with the Red Sox as notable candidates for White Sox ace Garret Crochet While cross-town deal are always more difficult to get across the line, the Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel deals in recent years have shown big deals can still get done between the clubs. Setting aside messy politics, the two clubs are actually very strong fits for each other on paper. The Cubs want to add pitching talent, yet have self imposed payroll restrictions keeping them from shopping at the top of free agency. Crochet's $3M projected salary can fit any team's budget. From the White Sox perspective, they're hoping to avoid furthering the historic levels of futility they displayed last year. Selecting the Cubs as a trade partner allows them to acquire potential impact minor league talent that has a first half of 2025 ETA and can help the big league club in short order.
  19. Bertz
    Rosenthal's article this evening says the expectation is this gets done before the end of the winter meetings, with a decent chance at it happening before they start.
  20. Bertz
    I would guess the team adds a starting caliber bat. Someone who is a better hitter than Bellinger but not necessarily a better player. In my mind's eye this is Tyler O'Neill, but don't get too hung up on him specifically. But it looks something like this - Yankees take Bellinger and his contract for a nominal return - Cubs sign Tyler O'Neill for 2-3 years and $15-18M per. He is now the starting right fielder - In addition to backfilling Bellinger, you have A) saved $7-10M outright and (IMO) B) eliminated the need for a Patrick Wisdom backfill on the bench The Cubs now have $35-40M to spend under the cap, and the to-do list is: additional SP, late inning reliever, reserve IFer (ideally LHH), and backup catcher. That is a bit tight if you do all your shopping in FA, but pretty easy if you stack even one more trade on.
  21. Bertz
    I would guess one of the appeals of the Yankees as a trade partner is they can likely take Bellinger's salary with no strings attached. They're ~$80M under last year's payroll and have a fairly complete pitching staff. They could do something like Bellinger plus Bregman and then use the last ~$20M to clean up around the edges. Seems like most other teams would need to do a deal with some offsetting salary. With Soto's decision appearing close and most of the FA pool intact, I think just saving Bellinger's salary and wiping our hands clean would be my preferred path if it's presented.
  22. Bertz
    The note that they only have like $16M to play with even after some extensive cuts at the non-tender deadline is kinda nuts. You'd guess Luis Castillo is extremely available. Something to keep in mind if Jed's able to move Bellinger.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah I think by default it'd be Seiya, but with plenty of situations where Happ would be preferable instead.
  24. Bertz
    If BA's report that he's a good bench player now is true, there's an extremely high floor. A high contact bat that can cover 2B/3B/OF and steal ~50 bases is valuable. Even if he's an 80-something wRC+ guy that's a premium bench player.
  25. Bertz
    I hadn't seen this yet, great news. Makes sense with how much time he lost to injury last year I guess. Definitely changes the calculus on him sticking on the 40 man. I still don't think he's very high on the depth chart, but he's very unlikely to be cut now.
×
×
  • Create New...