Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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https://www.mlb.com/news/ian-happ-wins-arbitration-case-against-cubs https://www.mlb.com/news/ian-happ-cubs-agree-to-extension
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I'm about as sympathetic as you're going to find on these types of arguments generally, but A) 29 is still very much on the young side for a long term contract to start B) the Cubs have essentially no money aside from Swanson tied up past 2026 C) Tucker's about as safe, consistent, and well rounded as you're going to get an opportunity to watch yourself to Like if you say no to Tucker, you're pretty much categorically out on these sorts of deals broadly? Because even the 25/26 year old who reach FA are starting to get 13/14 year deals, so you're not getting away from paying players in their late 30's unless you refuse to play the game entirely.
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Also not that it's been much of a secret but outright dumping Mastro further outlines that a LHH infielder is going to get added to the big league bench. Also makes me wonder if the intention is to trade to keep Workman even if the Rule 5 stuff doesn't work out.
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FWIW both of the pitch models on Fangraphs actually like what he did in limited time last year quite a bit
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I mean sure we're not tracking the actual documents getting submitted to the league office, but they drag their feet on getting this information out publicly on every single deadline. And there's no strategic value to the secrecy around these administrative items.
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Okay the Cubs always wait until the last horsefeathering minute on these sorts of deadlines but two hours is still a lot. You really do have to wonder if something is up, good or bad.
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Going to keep attempting to manifest this until we hear a Kyle Tucker arb number
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Feels like this idea's not really evolving
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Sasaki is notoriously reclusive
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Really glad this is no longer 5pm on a Friday
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Yeah I'm probably toward the higher end of that, but something like Steele/Shota on a rate basis. So if you combine that with the aesthetics of a triple digit fastball you're looking at someone comparable to Hunter Greene. Hunter Greene is great! But I have a feeling fans (and not just Cubs fans in this case) are going to have a meltdown when he's not a god-like rookie like Strasburg or Skenes.
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So this is probably worth asking: How good do you think Roki Sasaki is going to be? Because I feel like a lot of people are getting very far out in front of their skis.
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Feels like having to face the juggernaut Dodgers is potentially more of a feature more than a bug
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A good amount of Cubs love in here
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I would guess it's quite unlikely, but I wonder what the chances are that Tucker gets extended in the next few days in lieu of settling on an arbitration salary. I think even if we knew 100% that Tucker would get extended, Opening Day +/- two weeks is by far the smartest money for when it would happen. That said, some reasons I'm wondering about this: - It would explain the urgency to get the Bellinger deal done despite no teed up followup move - Not only was there not an immediate followup to the Bellinger deal, it has been deafeningly silent. The team signed a cheap LH reliever and has been sniffing around various cheap LHH infielders. These are not things Jed needed to free up $25M for. You know what $25M could do though? It could bridge you from a $16M arb salary to a $35M extension salary - The team absolutely has to sit down and talk dollars with Tucker's camp anyway - Arbitration negotiations are ugly, and you probably don't want your first substantive interaction with your new star to be so ugly. Arguing about numbers between $350-400M is presumably less contentious than arguing between $15-17M
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Yeah I tend to think that the primary value of this data is going to be in establishing a baseline. Similar to Max Exit Velocity, but likely much faster to return meaningful results. For example I remember Cody Bellinger hit a ball 109 MPH in the first week or two of the '23 season after topping out at 107 his last two years with the Dodgers. That alone didn't immediately say he was fixed, but it made me hop on board the bandwagon much faster than I would normally find appropriate. With our current data you generally need months of data to say whether someone is breaking out or is suddenly cooked. With this bat tracking data I could see arriving at reasonable conclusions in weeks.
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The thing about Kim is that while he might be a good option for the Cubs, the Cubs are an awful option for him. He is presumably going to take a 1 year pillow contract. I'd think he'd want to go somewhere with a more clear path to playing time, particularly playing time at shortstop. The Cubs would very clearly want Swanson, Hoerner and Shaw to play themselves in front of Kim.
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Sharma and Mooney put out a podcast last night. Not a ton in there, but some notes: - This week is dead because of the arb deadline. Don't expect anything of substance for at least a few more days. It's not just the teams that are preoccupied, but also the agents (I had personally never thought about that) - The team is certainly going to add a late inning closer type reliever. With how many options are out there and how late in the winter it is, don't be surprised if Jed does his patented wait out the market play - The team is going to add another SP. Feels like this could go a number of directions. But even if it just ends up being someone boring like Kyle Gibson, seems pretty certain they're adding someone - They expect something of substance to happen by Cubs convention. Didn't seem to be informed by any sense of something specific, my guess is just that the team generally just likes to have something shiny to talk about then. If you'll recall the Michael Busch deal got done a couple days before last year's convention
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Really really good read. Zombo seems pretty clearly to be viewed as Breslow's successor. Should also color how you view certain acquisitions this winter. For example I know Greg Zumach tied one of Zombo's videos talking up certain characteristics to the Cody Poteet acquisition.
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Verlander seems pretty cooked, but that park and that defense might be able to keep him viable and let him rack up some more milestones, which would be cool
