Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Yeah it feels like, especially given how much talent hits FA after '26, Shota's going to be in a situation where you'd rather hold onto him a year too long than a year too little.
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You would think this would indicate another move being not far behind if they set a deadline of yesterday
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And he followed up with Shaw
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This guy built out an app for doing Statcast sliders for AAA
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I think the big thing is the rotation if Luzardo ends up being the last SP. Having 3 SPs all leave at the same time is really rough timing, I think there might be a low key need to trade out of one of Taillon/Boyd/Luzardo and backfill with someone longer term essentially no matter what next winter. Yeah position player side it looks rough right now, but to your point if we're feeling good about either of Caissie or Alcantara at this time next year it shouldn't be too bumpy.
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Something I learned recently from a Szymborksi chat is that the replacement level is 47.5, and that there is exactly 1000 WAR to be earned in a given season. I guess that maths out to have league-wide WAR and league-wide wins line up at the end of the year.
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Wow, ZiPS has liked a number of players more than Steamer for a few years, namely Swanson and Busch, but I expected ZiPS to be like 2-3 wins north of steamer not like 6-7.
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This feels like when a little kid learns "Guess what, chicken butt" and gets some positive attention and then to chase the high tries the bit on everyone they see for the next week.
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So I think if you're the Cubs the questions you have to ask yourself from here as you fill out the roster are: 1. Do both you and Tucker feel comfortable having him play CF and/or 1B? 2. Of the non-Shaw kids at Iowa, which one(s) are you comfortable giving MLB at bats to in April/May if there's an injury? Adding a 3B to the bench is a given. But the answer to these two questions colors whether you also add a CF, a 1B, or both. Plus how to weight the allocation of resources between those bench spots. 3. Is Luzardo the SP you wanted, or is he the SP you basically had to pursue if you couldn't find a satisfactory Bellinger deal? With ~$40M to play with, adding a $15M SP like Dylan Cease is pretty doable. Hell if you gave him an extra year to keep the AAV down adding a Jack Flaherty wouldn't be insane. So now that you do have options it's probably good to confirm you're pursuing Luzardo because you think he's a GUY not because he's the best guy you could get for a sub $10M salary without blowing up the farm.
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ZiPS is weirdly feeling Poteet. A 99 ERA+ as a SP is a lot more than I was expecting from the big ol' pile of meh I got from initially perusing his Fangraphs page. I'm assuming Assad + a bat for Luzardo. Poteet opening the year as the long reliever until one of Wicks/Brown/Horton prove they're healthy and the rust is gone down at Iowa.
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I'm not sure there's any point this winter where a trade for Kirby or Gilbert felt less likely than it does right now.
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Now that we know we don't need to skimp on the bullpen, I want two relievers for sure. One of the really good old guys, and then someone with higher octane stuff. One needs to be a lefty, or at least a righty who statistically performs like a lefty like Kirby Yates.
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Given how much money the Bellinger trade freed up I'd be shocked if two bench bats aren't brought in. Then Kelly obviously has a spot and I would guess one bench spot is left available to be won for the various kids and NRIs. Canario/Workman/Mastro/etc.
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International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2024 Class
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
This has zero bearing in Sasaki. You operate in case you're not getting him until you do. The only team that can/could act at all presumptive about it is the Dodgers. If you get Sasaki you have to kill your 2025 IFA class and realistically blow up damn near every relationship you have down in LatAm. It's not like this handshake agreement is any more unbreakable or any less horsefeathers to break than the others. -
I think Kim gets more than that and ensured starter level playing time, but yeah roughly this. If Luzardo is your last SP there's a TON of latitude on the bench/bullpen stuff.
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So if our former assumptions hold, there's now $40M to address SP, the bench, and the bullpen. If Luzardo is the SP, that's enough money to do pretty close to whatever you want for the reserves.
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I don't know what a Cody Poteet is so if Jed kicked in more than like $5M along with Belli then he got worked pretty bad.
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I think knowing Suzuki's qualms with being a full time DH even if the team wanted to run Cohen-esque payroll you'd ideally make a move. I think also this is realistically the easiest remaining way to squeeze some more raw power onto the team.
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Not sure if this is coming from his connections or him reacting to the other smoke.
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If Bellinger's indeed done, paired with the urgency around the Luzardo rumors and there is a pretty decent chance we have a fairly complete roster heading into the holidays. Just bench and bullpen work left over for January.
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Aside from this I think the most interesting thing from the presser is that the Astros called after the Paredes trade before the trade deadline and tried to get Jed to flip him then. Otherwise Jed's answers all seemed to affirm the state of things that the beat writers are generally putting out there.
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Jed just shut down Michael Busch to 3B talk. He leaves himself outs in most answers but that was pretty definitive.
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