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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah if we're going to make a move like this Bregman is not the guy I'd use this bullet on. Both for Bregman-specific reasons and Matt Shaw reasons. One year pillow deal so he can shed his QO and re-enter next year's market? Hell yeah. 5 year deal? Eeeekkk.
  2. Bertz
    I think Nico would definitely go. I don't know that it would be Seattle. Nico for Castillo would no longer work financially, and the Mariners appear to have really stuck to their guns on the "we're not trading our young pitching" pledge. Cleveland maybe? I know they traded away a very similar guy in Gimenez, but Nico is signed to a much shorter term so he wouldn't be blocking Bazzana long term.
  3. Bertz
    I saw this AM that the Rangers are considering having Jon Gray move into late inning relief. That's either a very sad attempt at leverage or a very funny sign that they're tapped out financially.
  4. Bertz
    Start following this monstrosity of a BlueSky bot
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    I think the assumption should be that most of the guys who have minor league options will be using them until there is injury or underperformance. There will be injuries, particularly early in the year, but the goal with the pitching staff this winter both in words and actions certainly seems to be maxing out on depth. I love Brown as much as anyone, but he threw just 55 innings last year and none after early June. He can make a handful of starts at Iowa before it should be considered wasting bullets.
  7. Bertz
    I don't imagine Pearson will ultimately get a real crack in the rotation. That said, if he's stretching out maybe he's used as a 2-3 inning guy (with leverage!) a la Keegan Thompson at the height of his powers? A bullpen like this would be pretty horsefeathering sweet: Closer - Pressly 1 Inning Setup - Robertson, Hodge Multi-Inning Setup - Pearson Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar That multi-inning setup role Pearson resides in would also be an opportune role to get Brown/Horton/Birdsell into the mix at various points through the year as well.
  8. Bertz
    Robertson is a veteran closer, but has not always insisted on save opps. So it may not be an accident that it's Pressly and Robertson getting talked about concurrently. You can pair Pressly and Robertson, while you (probably) can't pair Pressly and Jansen for instance.
  9. Bertz
    This really sounds like it's more or less ready to go and just contingent on Pressly saying yes. I also liked this:
  10. Bertz
    I'm an "age is just a number" guy for pitchers, though I will say 40 and beyond does make me a little extra nervous. But Robertson has been consistently dominant since he came back from TJ so it's hard to find anything wrong with him besides his birthday. This would get a hell yeah from me.
  11. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6084614/2025/01/23/astros-alex-bregman-free-agent-discussions?source=user-shared-article My guess is there's a deal done conditioned on Bregman going back to the Astros and/or Pressly waiving his NTC. That's mean Bob jumped the gun but it's still likely to go down.
  12. Bertz
    This is a really good question, I believe the answer is no though. I believe on an administrative level we'd return him, he'd go back to being a non 40 man prospect for the Tigers, and then we'd acquire him as such.
  13. Bertz
    Usually when there's a disconnect like this between the national guys and the local guys it's a semantics thing and the team just doesn't like the deal being framed as almost done. Inevitably though a deal gets confirmed within an hour or two. Bob though is very liable to just totally bungle something like this.
  14. Bertz
    Ryan Pressly took a step back last year, but he was still 29th among relievers in Stuff+ (one spot ahead of AJ Puk, two spots behind Luke Weaver) and 44th in xFIP (two spots behind Luke Weaver, 4 behind Tanner Scott). So yes he's declined but he's gone from elite to still very good. ZiPS projects him for a 3.35 ERA. Probably knock a 10-15 points off of that in the conversion from Houston to Wrigley.
  15. Bertz
    Nice, I wanted Pressly during certain variations of the Tucker deal. I would rank him pretty close to Kenley Jansen among the FA RPs, so at his salary the player return needs to be nominal. One of our relievers feeling the roster squeeze like Keegan Thompson?
  16. Bertz
    By the way this math has been done ad nauseum. Here's a Pete Palmer article from 43 years ago that built on three already existing analyses: https://sabr.org/journal/article/runs-and-wins/
  17. Bertz
    Cade Horton either needing shoulder surgery or twelve months of rehab is a prominent that comes to my mind.
  18. Bertz
    No. It's the contrarian who the burden of proof falls on. Especially given your propensity to make horsefeathers up, I'm not going to put effort into proving e.g. the sky isn't purple.
  19. Bertz
    I think if you want to say that runs saved =/= runs scored then its incumbent on you to prove that out. Ditto tossing out park adjustments.
  20. Bertz
    On a park adjusted basis the Cubs offense was better than their pitching last year. On top of that they've added Kyle Tucker, and you'd expect that the worst of Amaya/Busch/PCA's growing pains are in the rear view mirror.
  21. Bertz
    A 1B is a virtual certainty. After trading Bellinger and Mervis there's not another 1B on the 40 man roster. Miguel Amaya has played 4 games at 1B since the pandemic, and as it stands he's the team's most experienced defensive option if Busch needs a day off. The question is what beyond that. If you don't add anyone, just give the spot to one of the lesser kids (Canario, Brujan, Workman), you're running out a lesser team to open the year but you're keeping a roster spot warm for when any of the prospects starts making noise at Iowa. If you add someone, like a Yoan Moncada or a Jorge Polanco, you give the team a *very* strong bench but make it that much harder to break any of the kids to break onto the roster. I'd prefer the latter but it's not a total slam dunk.
  22. Bertz
    I don't know if I agree with this conclusion (I think it presupposes Brujan's name is written in pen on the OD roster), but if it is the right read I think you'd expect a RHH 1B and that to be that as far as the bench goes. If it is right read, I'd really want to work out a deal with the Tigers to keep Workman. Need as many potential bullets as possible down at Iowa for 3B if Shaw flops and Berti is your only MLB safety net.
  23. Bertz
    I mentioned this in the megathread but this is a better place for it: If Berti is an upgraded version of Brujan this is great. If Berti is the primary backup to Shaw I'd be very nervous.
  24. Bertz
    Berti instead of Brujan as the utility guy would be great Berti as the Matt Shaw handcuff....yeesh Losing out on Scott should mean we can squeeze in a third bench salary, so I'm hopeful for the former. Berti, Moncada, Canha, and Finnegan for instance likely comes in a bit under $30M still?
  25. Bertz
    Is this intentional? Because if so bravo if not boy do I have some funny news for you.
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