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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    It's not nearly as bad as April. Honestly only three series in this stretch are all that intimidating. The next two against Detroit/Philly, and then @ the Yankees heading into the ASB. Teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and STL aren't bad, but they're not worth stressing over IMO.
  2. Bertz
    Honestly even setting aside his struggles Miller's spot was probably at least a little warm the moment they signed Brasier. Can't carry a ton of ROOGYs at once.
  3. Bertz
    I'll say if the rumor of Jed wanting to get a SP in house sooner rather than later is true, Gallen's easily the best option IMO. Bring him in, give Hottovy a month to see if his issues are indeed a quick fix him, if not (or god forbid there's further injury) go back to market at the end of July. Similar to Billy Beane adding Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester in 2014.
  4. Bertz
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotation-troubles/ Ben Clemens lays out a fairly compelling case that he's simply throwing too many fastballs
  5. Bertz
    If we assume Birdsell/McCollough come back no worse for the wear, I think it's something like this for the upper level arms: Wiggins <gap> Birdsell <gap> Sanders Gallagher McCollough <gap> Kipp Noland Then for the further away guys the ones of note are Mule, Erian Rodriguez, and I guess Florentino. I don't know much about him but a double digit K game is enough to throw you on the radar. They're not really apples to apples with the guys above but I'd probably squeeze them into the gap between McCollough and Kipp?
  6. Bertz
    This makes what, the 4th or 5th double digit K game on the farm this year? I honestly think we might have had 0 last year, and the year before that a few from Brown but nobody else. Some of it is the opportunity of working deeper into games (10 of 22 is a lot easier than 10 of 18), but also Zombro definitely seems to be the real deal.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah I'm looking forward to getting more info too. From watching plus the little bit out there it looks like - Fastball 91-95 like you said. Plays WAY up because of its movement though - Big loopy curveball in the low 70s. Feels like these have fallen out of style so it stood out - Tight gyro slider in the mid to upper 80's - Slow change in the upper 70's with a lot of movement Honestly it's similar to Shota's repertoire but from the other side. The breaking balls are more north/south than east/west, and I'd be shocked if Gallagher's change grades anywhere close to Shota's split, but superficially there's a lot of overlap.
  8. Bertz
    Washington has no reason to settle for quantity over quality
  9. Bertz
    I'd assume Shaw/Horton/Brown are generally off limits in discussions this summer. Gore's the one guy realistically available that would be an exception. Probably to the point that he'd cost two of them.
  10. Bertz
    Given the timing a real TJ surgery would have knocked him out all of next year, particularly because it's his second. So it actually does matter quite a bit.
  11. Bertz
    He hasn't been toiling at Iowa long enough for that, but it's not way far off. I think too the stuff get underrated because of the velocity, but he's got a Justin Steele type of deal going on where his fastball is really more of a cutter. And 89-91 on a cutter isn't actually *that* light in the velo department. But good command, good groundball rates, and okay swing and miss? That'll play for a back end of the rotation arm
  12. Bertz
    Up to 19% CS. Hardly a Molina out there but under the new rules that's adequate.
  13. Bertz
    6 shutout innings from Connor Noland. I really think if we needed him to he could make a couple starts and hold his own.
  14. Bertz
    105 pitchers have thrown at least 50 innings. Among them Ben Brown is 30th highest in terms of pitches in the zone. He's 11th in first strike percentage.
  15. Bertz
    Gore's batted ball data is worse than Brown's. Which is not to say Brown's is good but to show what a more reasonable expectation is for a guy with sterling peripherals and poor batted ball data (underperforming your FIP by ~half a run)
  16. Bertz
    This next 8 games is *rough*. Gore tonight, then @Tigers (where we draw Skubal and Flaherty) and @Phillies (where we draw Luzardo and Wheeler) It immediately mellows out again with the Pirates, but this is probably the hardest short stretch of the year.
  17. Bertz
    Power is always the streakiest aspect of a hitter, and as you pointed out he's underperforming his xwOBA by a healthy amount.
  18. Bertz
    Cards are down three and the Royals have a pretty stellar bullpen. We're probably about to be up 5 games I don't want to get cocky but man if I was one of the other teams in the division it'd feel like it's getting late pretty early here
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    Logging on to see Wiggins worked into the 7th with only one walk
  21. Bertz
    The good and the bad of Alcantara is that there's nothing obviously wrong with him. The velo is down a smidge, and the stuff with it, but not even remotely close to enough to explain what's happening. He's just been a turd out there. There might be a super easy fix, but that's an expensive gamble. My POV would be that he should cost very little in terms of players unless the Marlins pay down some of his 2026 salary (and before you laugh they might need to spend some $$$ to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA).
  22. Bertz
    Jeff Passan said this morning that the Rays will probably make Drew Rasmussen available. Rasmussen and Pete Fairbanks would be a very direct and straightforward way for Jed to October-ize this pitching staff
  23. Bertz
    It's not worth a separate rumor thread but the Athletic this AM made it sound like the team wants to bring Jorge Lopez back
  24. Bertz
    They said similar with Steele/Alzolay/Thompson a few years ago. I suspect these measures help them "land the plane" so to speak as opposed to allow them to go way over their projections. E.g. if they were expecting 120 IP out of Horton coming into the year, these would help them navigate between 100-140 rather than open up the possibility of like 180. I think these measures also are why they don't just do what Squally is saying and trade for someone now and put Horton on the phantom IL. As much as we refer to a pitcher's innings as bullets it's not really so clean and zero sum in practice.
  25. Bertz
    Demographically I'd love a redo of the '22 draft and just go pitching pitching pitching. For one because the system could use it, and for another because Tyler Zombro appears to be the goods. Pitching trade secrets seem to only have a few years of shelf life, so go all in on leveraging him until all his tricks are public domain.
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