Bertz

It really does not sound like things are far enough apart between Boras and the Tigers/BoSox for something like this to be at all likely.

It feels like it could go either way, and really depends on what conversations between Roki and the Padres are like. If Roki's looped in and comfortable with the longer term view I do imagine Cease gets shown the door, but on the flip side he might view them trading their best pitcher right after he commits to be a slap in the face. I do expect that Preller has about 34 moves lined up and is going to go on a full-on transaction bender very shortly after Roki makes his decision. We're a good fit for several Padres so I wouldn't be surprised if we get caught up in that maelstrom.

Teams and players have flexibility with how they handle extensions. So let's say you're going to sign Tucker to a 10 year deal, the Cubs and Tucker could choose whether to make that 2025-2034, or 2026-2035. The latter would leave more money to spend this year, while the former would reduce how much of Tucker's decline phase you're paying him for at the end of a deal.

MLB Pipeline is probably closest to a source of truth IMO. Jim Callis has been the best at this stuff for approaching 20 years. That said he very much does his job via working the phones, while the guys at Fangraphs or BP are doing more actual scouting/analysis. I would generally recommend MLB as your primary and then choose a secondary between BP/FG/ESPN based on who you vibe with the most.

One thing worth really driving home on that 3rd point is there's just such a long lead time before you can get a read on this stuff. The Cubs were kings of LatAm from 2011-2015, things fell apart more or less overnight, and we didn't really start feeling that something was up until 2018ish?

This will get called sour grapes. but the Dodgers perpetually have these breakout performances in the extremely hitter friendly Low A California League. Their players annual pepper throughout top 100 lists and yet the best position player they've produced since COVID is Michael Busch.

It's wild how people still have not figured out how to contextualize California League production.

Probably a good place to post this I think there's a decent chance he gets smacked around by big league lefties (I know he hasn't had issues to this point), but essentially everything else is there already. One kind of weird thing is that ZiPS hates him. For a guy who is a data darling I expected the opposite and to need to go "woah woah woah pump the brakes buddy" to the projections. I am curious what the hell it sees that has it throwing up the red flag.

With nearly 3 months til opening day you'd presume he can play 1B from jump. Then 3B by midseason?

Via Sharma in his writeup of the team losing out on Sasaki. Not "the team is definitely going to add more starting pitching and here are some names to watch" but appears to back up Rea just being a depth move with or without winning the Sasaki lottery.

How do you reconcile this decision being a referendum on the Cubs with the fact that two of the five best teams in the league were given the cold shoulder from jump. Why aren't the Mets with their Scrooge McDuck owner a finalist? My theory is that in the absence of financial incentives Sasaki is making his choice based on geography. But apparently I'm being obtuse.

By this logic we're a better team than the Braves and Phillies

I'd love to hear anyone explain how a decision process that has the Phillies and Braves being eliminated in round 1 and the Blue Jays making it to the finals is all or even mostly about on field baseball factors.

Why do you think this is something that requires an excuse?

The Jays would be the funniest, and probably the best analogue to Ohtani picking the Angels.

I was wondering about them, I couldn't remember if we heard they got a meeting or if they were just a team that was hot and heavy for him before he posted.

So if we ignore Mike, the four teams whose fate we don't know are: Dodgers Padres Jays Cubs There's also potential for a team who has not yet been mentioned in the process to still be in. After all I don't think we knew about the Jays until this AM.

The depth the team has is legitimately fantastic. I think the question is whether they are amassing all that depth because they think it's needed to survive the marathon of the season, or if there is a certain amount being earmarked for a consolidation trade or two like you allude to. The team used 8 starters last year, and obviously would have liked a 9th or 10th to eat up some of the starts they were forced to keep giving Hendricks even after it was obvious he was cooked. The old adage of "you can never have too much starting pitching" is true. That said, the Cubs already had a good amount of depth on hand. YMMV but Rea's probably SP 8 or 9 on talent right now? And you'd hope one or both of Horton/Birdsell would pass him by midseason. So the question is is Colin Rea: A) A very underwhelming final SP addition B) The 6th starter/swingman after another yet-to-be finalized SP addition. (Pushing every SP with minor league options to Iowa to max out depth) C) A pre-emptive backfill for a trade. Like you lay out, if Dylan Cease costs two pre-arb arms that's a lot of innings going out the door. Similar deal even if you send one starter out but the guy coming back isn't as durable as Cease (one of the Rays' guys for instance) Any of the three are believable! I would like to think after all the smoke around the team taking a big swing on Luzardo that it's not A. That said Luzardo and Rea have similar salaries, so it's possble Luzardo was less an indication of what SP tier the team was looking at talent-wise and moreso just the best SP that Jed could fit into his budget puzzle.

It's interesting the amount of this that's coming from LatAm heavy reporters. Totally believable, one of the first things I'd do as a GM who just got the breakup call is shore up my IFA affairs ahead of Wednesday. But I always assumed this would be a Passan bomb or some dumb wetbutt type of situation. Never really considered the in between.

Wow, these are far more extensive cuts than I expected this early.

I like this a lot! There are some things I would push back on but I really liked this point A huge chunk of pitching injuries occur from February to April. I believe it's north of 50% when we talk major ones requiring surgery. So if you're a team like the Cubs that are the soft favorites in a mediocre decision, is it better to load up on depth pre-season and then go get someone who can start a playoff game July when you know who's actually healthy and productive this year? My gut says it's getting too cute with the problem but it's interesting to think about.

This is great, I'm glad Sasaki is formally letting people out before Wednesdays IFA deadline instead of stringing them along. If the Cubs don't get him I hope we find out today as well.

I can't find it currently but IIRC the Stuff models thought Arias was good not great. And with his lack of control I think you'd need stuff that makes you do the Tex Avery eyes to be all that upset about losing him.

I think it's definitely important to keep the calendar in perspective. Roughly half of the Top 50 free agents heading into the winter are still on the board, and a lot of guys who would fill the role of e.g. backup 3rd baseman wouldn't even make such a list. If you compare this offseason to last, Shota Imanaga was signed last Thursday, then the Michael Busch trade was Saturday. Hector Neris is two weeks from today, and Cody Bellinger is more than a week out. That said, I wouldn't expect a ton of impact from this point onward. Some of that is for bad reason: Tom Ricketts is cheap. Some of that is for good reason: Iowa is pretty legitimately loaded, and you do want to allow some opportunity for those kids to percolate up through the year. But I would say there's a possibility the team adds an impact SP from here, but anything else will clearly be complimentary pieces. A solid closer (probably one of the old guys) and two bench bats. Where that nets out is likely a team that projects to win the division by 2-3 games without that impact SP or 4-5 games if they do add him. Paired with the talent at Iowa I think that's a legitimately good spot to be in, but it also yet again feels like a missed opportunity to pull further away from the rest of the division. We've all seen the Brewers make quick work of a 3 game projected advantage before.