I would suspect ultimately that there is a "Keep 2, Trade 2" decision between Ballesteros, Caissie, Alcantara, and Long. It will largely be mostly based on their performances, but I also think there's a component of what happens with Kyle Tucker.
He also should overperform his xwOBA. Speed will give him infield hits plus extra bases on more solidly hit balls. He also is pulling a bunch of fly balls, which should should help his ~average power play up like we've seen with Bellinger and Paredes.
I would guess the .370/.300 gap he was running not too long ago isn't sustainable, but the .370/.340 he's running right now might not include much luck.
Since his breakout last July 27th he's got a 129 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR. We're talking 341 PAs too, so we're past SSS territory (though not so far past that we can call *this* his true talent level).
Nothing results wise at Iowa says he's any better than he was prior to this year.
There might be stuff they like from a pitch design standpoint I'm not seeing though. He also shortened up to one inning in Saturday and got 5 whiffs, so a breadcrumb of something interesting happening.
He does require a 40 man move though, so not sure what that would be. Morgan to the 60 Day?
People want Moises to take Turner's roster spot, and I understand the impulse, but Long feels like the far more logical fit.
(Not calling for it right now, probably wouldn't pull that trigger until at least Memorial Day)
Yeah I think this is the worry if he can't catch at all. I'll throw Yuli Gurriel out as another potentially similar profile offensively.
Ballesteros might be the best bet in MiLB to be an above average hitter. But the bar at 1B is such that you're not especially fun until you leave a 120 wRC+ in the rearview mirror. And getting past a 120 wRC+ without a bunch of dongs is really tough.
There's some significant tweener potential with Moises. So despite the insanity he's displaying at the plate right now I'm comfortable with him hanging out at Iowa for a while yet.
Matt Shaw with his first dong since getting back to Iowa!
And Moises is hitting .407 at damn near the 100 plate appearance mark of the season. Feels like even with how much we're talking about him we might not be talking about him enough
I would not do this, but you do kind of wonder about Brown getting sent down. Wicks pitched yesterday so he could slide in seemlessly. And the Brewers and Giants have been ass against lefties this year (and that doesn't seem super fluke given their personnel).
I think Busch has definitely been lucky, but that shouldn't diminish the fact that he's been quite good. Put another way, he has earned All Star level production and received MVP level results. Because Gambler's Fallacy is a powerful drug a lot of people will focus on that gap, but IMO we should be focusing on that All Star level performance.
I think too it's worth noting that Busch pulls a lot of his flyballs. As a lot of spilled ink around Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes the last two years has made clear, that's an objective way to 'overperform' your x stats. (and if Tom Tango weren't so horsefeathering obstinate should just be built into them to begin with)
I'm nervous for Pressly's next outing since it'll be his first post knee procedure, but generally yeah I think the group has been sorted out. We need one of the gray beard lefties to step up but that's about it.
I can probably re-use the Kombucha girl for Nazier Mule's night. Just okay performance wise but 91 pitches and 24 batters faced is awesome to see from a young arms like him.
One thing the Brewers have been really great about the last several years is playing the long game. They don't "chase wins" by using leverage relievers while they're losing close, and they prioritize rest even if it means some suboptimal matchups.
That is something that's not hard to do when you've got a decent lead on a playoff spot. It will be interesting to see of they have the discipline to maintain that approach if they're 3-5 games back.
I'm glad you wrote this because I've started eyeballing Joe Ryan as the cost controlled starter Jed needs to add. So there's opportunity for some one-stop shopping, and honestly any of the prospect bats down at Iowa could probably be a good fit in MN, so I think the fit goes in two directions.