Bertz

This is notably worse than the Cubs even with a very generous innings projection for Brandon Woodruff.

For the third time in less than a week the Cubs are being tied to a left handed (or switch hitting) 3rd baseman. This time it's former White Sox Yoan Moncada. Moncada is entering his age 30 season and looking to rebuild value after a few years marred by injury. The Cubs meanwhile appear to be looking for someone who can plausibly handle full time 3rd base duties if Matt Shaw proves not yet ready for primetime. Given that Moncada, Josh Rojas, and Hyeseong Kim can all bat from the left side, it appears that having that platoon compliment to Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner is also being viewed as a desirable trait. View full rumor

Essentially every free agent SP has exceeded projections this winter, and there are still several teams out there looking to spend some money (Tigers, Giants, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays). I won't say no chance to Flaherty's market collapsing because there were some rumors about a shoulder injury around the deadline, but you should still expect something in the vicinity of $100M for him.

We don't need to overthink this. The Dodgers lineup is great but it's a bit of a mess defensively and so they wanted a defensive oriented bench player. Miguel Rojas is one, but he's old and doesn't help in CF.

Cubs fans are bad about overrating finesse guys because of Maddux and Hendricks, but Connor Noland being the team's ~11th starter is still a good sign of a healthy roster.

Cartaya would be worth trading something minor for to stash at Iowa.

I saw Juan Yepez get mentioned on Fangraphs earlier today. He'd be a decent option for that 1B platoon-mate with Busch. The Nats now have Lowe and Bell at 1B/DH so he's squeezed out of a firm role in DC. He's still making league minimum, would be cheap to acquire (someone like Kilian?), and has one more minor league options left so could be stashed at Iowa.

The Athletic guys mentioned him a few weeks back as someone Jed might circle back to if his market lingered.

Chris Taylor probably needs to get in touch with a realtor. I wouldn't hate him after he gets to FA, he's not good anymore but he's probably better than Brujan.

I'm cleaning out unread tabs in Chrome and came across this story from a few weeks ago The tl;dr is that Rosen used consistency of release point to attempt to measure command rather than pitch results, and the results largely make intuitive sense. Towards the bottom of the article there's a Top 20 and a Bottom 20. Shota and Steele both rank in the Top 5, and Taillon’s 11. Certainly feels like Jed has a type. Makes me wonder if Jed could trade for another top "command" guy on this list. A few that feel plausible: - Chris Paddack on the Twins is in his walk year and the Twins are trying to cut salary. I believe we got linked to him a while back when he was a Padre as well? - Kutter Crawford appears to be the Red Sox #6 starter. Could we do a young player swap to nab him in exchange for some players Breslow liked over here? - Jon Gray's still got velo, is there something easily fixable to get him back to missing bats? Rangers are right up against the LT and might like to repurpose his money - Rays are probably not actively looking to move SPs after the Springs trade, but they're always open for business so I bet Baz or Littell could be had

So we're going to be able to back into who's still legitimately in the Sasaki sweepstakes by who doesn't post a bunch of kid signing pics on 1/15 right?

Can't hurt to ask!

My understanding is that the defense is supposed to be pretty top notch and the questions are around the bat. So it's probably one of those where it's just assumed he could slide back over to 3rd and excel. Like if we needed to move Nico over for some reason.

It's easy just ask Google Gemini

I don't love going multi-year for a player of this caliber. That said it's a nominal salary and left handed infielder is not something we're overflowing with on the farm. I do like that this paired with the Josh Rojas stuff seems to confirm that an (ideally LHH) infielder is a definite item still on the to-do list.

Bullpen right now is likely: Closer - TBD external acquisition Setup - Hodge, Pearson Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar Long Relief - One of Assad/Wicks/Poteet Keegan Thompson and Rob Zastryzny are likely around in case someone gets hurt in ST. Or maybe with all the off days in April the team foregoes an early season long reliever and one makes the OD roster that way? Thompson is sort of in between a regular short reliever and a long guy as is Then you have Palencia, Roberts, Little, Neely, and Hollowell as your Iowa shuttle guys I wish I felt comfortable calling one of Thielbar/Merrweather/Morgan a setup guy from Day 1, but otherwise assuming that closer is on the way it's a pretty solid and very deep group.

It's kind of crazy how much the pitch models like Thielbar. PitchingBot is one of the ones on Fangraphs, and they actually have an ERA estimator. i.e. If a guy has a Stuff grade of X and a Command grade of Y they tend to have an ERA of Z. This model says Thielbar "earned" a 3.12 ERA over the last three years, which is 10th among lefty relievers behind Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman. Even last season when Thielbar got blown up his projected ERA was 3.28, ironically tied with AJ Minter and right in the vicinity of guys like Bryan Hudson and Aaron Bummer. Stuff+ arguably likes him more. He's 11th in Stuff and 5th in overall Pitching the last three years among lefty relievers. Ironically again tied with AJ Minter on the latter. Again this model thinks he was just fine in 2024, he ranked 11th in Stuff and 10th in overall Pitching. I don't want to get too far out over my skis on this stuff, but he's definitely not the finesse lefty you expect when you see a 38 year old with a 93 MPH fastball. I think there's a floor of a quality LOOGY with pretty real potential for quality setup work.

These are the other FA 3B of note. I don't think Rojas is substantially better than most of these guys holistically, but he did feel like a better fit. I wonder if he went to the White Sox to ensure everyday at bats. Luis Urias Pros: Still young (entering his age 28 season) has been an above average hitter 3 of the last 4 years Cons: 3 straight years losing significant time to injury. SSS but Statcast says his defense slipped in a big way last year. Right handed hitter. Jorge Polanco Pros: By far the most likely guy to give you impact offense. Switch hitter excels against righties so compliments our current IF Cons: Coming off knee surgery. Not a ton of experience at 3B. Might be too good to not get a starting job somewhere Yoan Moncada Pros: Big time power and patience. Getting away from the White Sox feels like a potentially meaningful change of scenery Cons: Has not been an impact guy since '21, largely due to injury. Is much more effective as a RHH so his switch hitting isn't as useful as we'd like Paul Dejong Pros: Was a pretty great comeback story last year, played at about a 2.5 WAR pace with a strong power+defense combo Cons: He was mostly a disaster from 2020-2023 Donovan Solano Pros: Consistently above average bat Cons: Old, RHH, very much a 1B/3B tweener Amed Rosario Pros: Plays everywhere. Good contact and SB numbers. Surprising raw power Cons: RHH. SSS defensive numbers all over the dirt are ugly. Swings at everything

I'm curious what about the Padres' plans change based on the Sasaki decision. Like does landing Sasaki make a Cease trade more likely because you feel like you've backfilled his star power and can settle for improving depth? Or does it make it less likely because you've filled your biggest need for league minimum, so suddenly dumpster diving for e.g. a LFer (run it back with Peralta?) doesn't feel as bad? I think you can logic it either direction if they miss too. But yeah I agree a Dylan Cease trade feels kind of perfect from the Cubs' end. I actually like that he's in his walk year. In addition to keeping costs manageable, it feels like having the option to pivot to Cease if you fail to extend Tucker has value. And of course replacing Assad in the rotation with Cease is a massive massive upgrade. Like you say the Cubs would be heavy favorites in the Central and probably have an argument for being as good as any non-Dodger team.

Scratch this one off the list

It's absolutely astonishing to me that people watched last year's team and don't see the value in having depth that isn't horsefeathers. Like you couldn't find a better case study and yet the majority of the fanbase just completely whiffs on the lesson.

Gio Urshela should not be a meaningful part of any team's 1B plans