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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    FWIW ZiPS sees Caissie running BABIPs in the .340s and .350s the next few years. Low O-contact rates and plus power are generally a good combo for a sustainably high BABIP.
  2. Bertz
    No Japan series (at least no playing the field) but good to go for domestic opening day is really starting to sound like the appropriate place to set expectations. Fingers crossed.
  3. Bertz
    I'd expect one reliever not both. The bullpen's already nominally full, though the way the rumors have gone make you think they're pretty comfortable cutting Merryweather. Counsell's press conference on, I think Tuesday, talked about adding help at 1B and "not being afraid to add another reliever on an MLB contract." So between that and what's written by Trueblood and the Athletic Turner/Robertson is the best guess.
  4. Bertz
    Citation?
  5. Bertz
    Yeah the payroll stuff seems whatever. I actually rolled my eyes at Jed's attempt at retconning the Bellinger saga. I think payroll's legitimately down a smidge, I think Jed's just being his usual cagey self about what he can spend for leverage, and there's a bit of "well yeah of course an owner's going to be a big part of that convo" to the process stuff. Mooney just tonight reiterated the look to add a Turner/Canha type and said and that "the front office never stops looking for more pitching." So I'm not super worried that the wallet's literally empty. I think from an execution standpoint, the rotation is obviously a guy short. And Rea REALLY sticks out like a sore thumb. I don't understand committing that money, and maybe more importantly that roster spot, to someone whose value seems to be mostly not being bad in a wide variety of roles. That is a floor raising move you do when your pitching staff is paper thin. On this team it seems inevitable that he spends large chunks of the season just in the way. And if you're right that Jed is left holding a bag, then Rea could have very easily been Max Scherzer. There's pressure on the team to have either absolutely nailed the Boyd signing or have one of the young SPs step up in a big big way. Either are easy to envision, but jeez neither is something I'd want to count on in my walk year.
  6. Bertz
    I'd love to see what quotes from him make you think that.
  7. Bertz
    This is great. And I think it's worth noting that this is the extent of the impact, more or less turning a blue state into a red one tax wise. It's something with marginal value and not the "one weird trick for giving Shohei Ohtani $70M a year" that causes so much wailing and gnashing of teeth. (Also probably worth noting the Cubs deferred a bunch of Jason Heyward's deal....)
  8. Bertz
    This is a little different from the playoff odds that live on FG every day. Dan Szymborski's system here actually does some accounting for depth, and it looks like that gave the Brewers a bit of a bump and accordingly knocked the Cubs down a peg.
  9. Bertz
    If you think about it at the very top end a guy like Robertson might make $12M? That's 10% of what they were offering to commit to Bregman. And Turner's certainly going to make less than that. The semantics leave some wiggle room to disappoint, but this time yesterday our expectation if they didn't come down with Bregman was Turner and another reliever, and I don't think anything he said today contradicts that.
  10. Bertz
    Yeah that definitely sounds like we can close the book on a big trade. Don't feel like it foregoes bench/bullpen moves though, especially with Counsell basically saying those were going to happen the day before yesterday.
  11. Bertz
    It's very simple time value of money stuff. There's no advantage. It gives sticker shock, but it's very much above board. That's why every time when the actual terms of the deals come out they magically equate to a deal more or less in line with expectations.
  12. Bertz
    Deferred money is not a competitive advantage lol
  13. Bertz
    I think broadly at this level of player ownership is part of the convo. I think too with Jed being in his walk year guaranteeing ~$90M past his current contract involves some asking for permission.
  14. Bertz
    - Check in one last time on Cease - Sign Turner and Robertson - Be open minded about options for that last bench spot Easy peasy. Then next month if the health situation is solid, you can consider some small deals to trade away some of the pitching depth that's not stashable at Iowa.
  15. Bertz
    I didn't even think about how Bregman choosing Boston screws over the Cards until I saw this (Judge is a Brewers fan). Very nice little bonus.
  16. Bertz
    The way the Athletic article about Turner was written, that sounded pretty far down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a Cub tomorrow or Friday. The Pivetta thing likely means that Cease is close to getting dealt Hopefully the offseason can be done, from our perspective at least, by the weekend.
  17. Bertz
    Chandler Rome is Houston's Athletic Writer, so that would seem to be that. And wowza, $40M per year!?
  18. Bertz
    Given the ownership turmoil it seems very likely the Padres care more about real dollars than the cap. So Pivetta and Kings salaries being less than their cap hits is certainly a feature not a bug.
  19. Bertz
    I'm totally fine with Bregman going to Detroit, but when's the last time Ofman had sources worth a damn. Legitimately back to the Hendry era, no?
  20. Bertz
    Yeah I just posted in the general thread but Passan speculated just yesterday about the Padres signing Pivetta and then trading one of their guys.
  21. Bertz
    Soooooo Nick Pivetta to the Padres, and Jeff Passan wrote this yesterday Especially with Bregman sounding close, hold onto your butts?
  22. Bertz
    "Don't worry, we'll just dump money at the deadline while still maintaining our competitive ability" is like the epitome of the Tobias Fünke "but it might work for us" meme.
  23. Bertz
    Especially given he played winterball and didn't touch 1B yeah it's pretty clear this is a Bregman related deal. That said, they could have had Connor Joe or Ty France for just $200Kish more. So I'm curious which of these is why Canario's now the play: - Those guys were understandably not willing to wait on Bregman's decision before taking the bird in hand, so Jed's gotta scramble a bit - That $200K matters to Jed (might imply a sign Bregman keep Hoerner scenario?) - The team doesn't love Canario anymore (clearly) but still likes him more than that caliber of veteran It doesn't ultimately matter and we'll never know, but that second one popped into my head as a potential implication.
  24. Bertz
    Nodding to Trueblood's article this afternoon, I anticipate one bench player will be someone with a *very* tenuous grasp on a roster spot. They are keeping a spot warm until there's a multi-day but not IL-worthy injury or one of the prospects goes ultra instinct and forces a callup. Canario is still in the org IMO because there are certain permutations where it makes sense for him to be that guy compared to Workman or Brujan. But all three are clinging to the roster by their fingernails IMO.
  25. Bertz
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