Bertz

I'd love to hear anyone explain how a decision process that has the Phillies and Braves being eliminated in round 1 and the Blue Jays making it to the finals is all or even mostly about on field baseball factors.

Why do you think this is something that requires an excuse?

The Jays would be the funniest, and probably the best analogue to Ohtani picking the Angels.

I was wondering about them, I couldn't remember if we heard they got a meeting or if they were just a team that was hot and heavy for him before he posted.

So if we ignore Mike, the four teams whose fate we don't know are: Dodgers Padres Jays Cubs There's also potential for a team who has not yet been mentioned in the process to still be in. After all I don't think we knew about the Jays until this AM.

The depth the team has is legitimately fantastic. I think the question is whether they are amassing all that depth because they think it's needed to survive the marathon of the season, or if there is a certain amount being earmarked for a consolidation trade or two like you allude to. The team used 8 starters last year, and obviously would have liked a 9th or 10th to eat up some of the starts they were forced to keep giving Hendricks even after it was obvious he was cooked. The old adage of "you can never have too much starting pitching" is true. That said, the Cubs already had a good amount of depth on hand. YMMV but Rea's probably SP 8 or 9 on talent right now? And you'd hope one or both of Horton/Birdsell would pass him by midseason. So the question is is Colin Rea: A) A very underwhelming final SP addition B) The 6th starter/swingman after another yet-to-be finalized SP addition. (Pushing every SP with minor league options to Iowa to max out depth) C) A pre-emptive backfill for a trade. Like you lay out, if Dylan Cease costs two pre-arb arms that's a lot of innings going out the door. Similar deal even if you send one starter out but the guy coming back isn't as durable as Cease (one of the Rays' guys for instance) Any of the three are believable! I would like to think after all the smoke around the team taking a big swing on Luzardo that it's not A. That said Luzardo and Rea have similar salaries, so it's possble Luzardo was less an indication of what SP tier the team was looking at talent-wise and moreso just the best SP that Jed could fit into his budget puzzle.

It's interesting the amount of this that's coming from LatAm heavy reporters. Totally believable, one of the first things I'd do as a GM who just got the breakup call is shore up my IFA affairs ahead of Wednesday. But I always assumed this would be a Passan bomb or some dumb wetbutt type of situation. Never really considered the in between.

Wow, these are far more extensive cuts than I expected this early.

I like this a lot! There are some things I would push back on but I really liked this point A huge chunk of pitching injuries occur from February to April. I believe it's north of 50% when we talk major ones requiring surgery. So if you're a team like the Cubs that are the soft favorites in a mediocre decision, is it better to load up on depth pre-season and then go get someone who can start a playoff game July when you know who's actually healthy and productive this year? My gut says it's getting too cute with the problem but it's interesting to think about.

This is great, I'm glad Sasaki is formally letting people out before Wednesdays IFA deadline instead of stringing them along. If the Cubs don't get him I hope we find out today as well.

I can't find it currently but IIRC the Stuff models thought Arias was good not great. And with his lack of control I think you'd need stuff that makes you do the Tex Avery eyes to be all that upset about losing him.

I think it's definitely important to keep the calendar in perspective. Roughly half of the Top 50 free agents heading into the winter are still on the board, and a lot of guys who would fill the role of e.g. backup 3rd baseman wouldn't even make such a list. If you compare this offseason to last, Shota Imanaga was signed last Thursday, then the Michael Busch trade was Saturday. Hector Neris is two weeks from today, and Cody Bellinger is more than a week out. That said, I wouldn't expect a ton of impact from this point onward. Some of that is for bad reason: Tom Ricketts is cheap. Some of that is for good reason: Iowa is pretty legitimately loaded, and you do want to allow some opportunity for those kids to percolate up through the year. But I would say there's a possibility the team adds an impact SP from here, but anything else will clearly be complimentary pieces. A solid closer (probably one of the old guys) and two bench bats. Where that nets out is likely a team that projects to win the division by 2-3 games without that impact SP or 4-5 games if they do add him. Paired with the talent at Iowa I think that's a legitimately good spot to be in, but it also yet again feels like a missed opportunity to pull further away from the rest of the division. We've all seen the Brewers make quick work of a 3 game projected advantage before.

I've noticed in most of the early pictures out of camp the players wearing these Catapult vests. Sounds like it's tracking/monitoring equipment. Do we have a position player answer to like a Rapsodo now?

Yes, that's -1.6 WAR from the bullpen

Rea was certainly not the best tea leaf, but default assumption for payroll should essentially always be "a little under the luxury tax" unless or until there's something more concrete to override that assumption. Especially since none of the people who actually tend to know things have indicated anything inordinately bad about payroll to this point this winter.

It didn't come from anywhere he made it up.

Citation needed

Jed Hoyer appears intent on adding as much pitching depth to the Cubs as he possibly can. After adding Matt Festa and Colin Rea this week, Ken Rosenthal reports in The Athletic that the team has checked in with lefty reliever Brooks Raley. Raley, 36, started his career as a Cub before spending a few years in the KBO. Since he came back stateside in 2020 he has been one of the better lefty relievers in the league. The Cubs, even after adding Caleb Thielbar, are light on left-handed relievers. With Raley still rehabbing from surgery, he would be eligible to be put on the 60 Day injured list as soon as spring training opens. This would be a potentially savvy way for the team to stash another pitcher without eating a roster spot. View full rumor

The Cubs' pitching staff right now. Guys with asterisks have minor league options: SP - Steele, Shota, Taillon, Boyd, Rea CL - Hodge* SU - Pearson, Thielbar MR - Morgan*, Merryweather Matchup - T. Miller, Zastryzny LR - K. Thompson It's long been rumored the team will add a closer, so swapping that guy in for Zastryzny feels pretty easy. Beyond that, Keegan's roster spot is the only one that feels all that tenuous. But if you replace him with someone guaranteed a roster spot you don't have anywhere for a minor leaguer to break in unless there's a cut or an injury. This staff is too mid and Iowa has too much talent to be this inflexible.

https://www.theringer.com/2017/10/10/nfl/post-quarterback-jacksonville-jaguars-blake-bortles-denver-broncos-peyton-manning Now baseball is fundamentally different than football, and quarterback is fundamentally unique within football, but when we're talking about marginally improving your #9 starter this feels pretty apt. If we take this transaction at face value, IMO you're much more likely to lose wins through opportunity cost, whether via the dollars or via the roster spot, than you are to gain wins by improving the reliability you can expect that far down the depth chart.

He doesn't have minor league options so it's not actually that simple. Yeah when there's several injuries it's easy to see his spot on the roster, but what about when there's not? Cody Poteet is a guy of this ilk who has value because we can just leave him idling in Iowa. But Rea is very much in the way when things are going well. ZiPS projects Rea with an ERA+ of 90. 19 Cubs (not including likely Thielbar who missed the article cutoff) are currently projected better than that. Four of the depth starters in Assad, Brown, Wicks, and Poteet are projected better than that. Honestly the lack of options broadly is a roster issue. Porter Hodge and Eli Morgan are the only pitchers on the roster with options. The team will have to cut guys or abuse the IL to maneuver the roster in season. Neither is impossible, but it feels silly to do so for the sake of hoarding guys like Rea. Like I'm Mr. Positive but if there's not a subsequent trade or some unpublished injury news I can't even devil's advocate my way into this being a good idea.

Mooney, who is very much not a cheerleader for this front office, makes this sound like an addition rather than the addition.