Regardless of whether the math works out on whether he'd pay for himself (I think you're right, btw...), if he were to make it known he wouldn't sign more than a one year deal, if no one were willing to pay the max $20 mil posting fee, then it comes down to who is willing to pay the most. So long as one team were to make a bid, someone will get the rights to negotiate with him. That number doesn't have to get to $20 mil to get him in play. Probably close to every team in baseball would be willing to take him on a one year deal for at least the minimum posting fee plus the max salary they could offer him. So the question is, would his team refrain from posting him if they weren't confident they'd get $20 million? Why would a contender that's got money, NOT give an ace a one year, 30ish mill deal? Getting a team to fork over a 20 mill posting fee for him, even just for a year, is a no-brainer. I agree... that wasn't what I was trying to say. The posting fee only gets to $20 mil if someone bids $20 mil, and I would bet multiple teams would. Just saying that even in the unlikely scenario where no team were inclined to pay a $20 mil posting fee to only have him for a year, there would still be bidding, and he'd still be in play. I'm not convinced this new CBA will delay him as much as everyone thinks. If he wants to play in the MLB badly enough, it'll happen.