What is 'real talent'? Track record? Stuff? Tools? Neris had all and he's been meh. Hader got huge money and has had one of his worst seasons. It improved over time but it started really rough.
The Cubs are trying to develop their own guys (Adbert, Little. Bigge, Hodge) and they're also trying to refine unpolished guys, and have spent modestly on 'real talent' that often ends up being a poor investment. A lot of RP who signed the bigger contracts in the winter have been total JAGs. They largely outweigh the what about guys you want to point to.
So many teams build the pen the same way. People thought Jed was an idiot for taking a chance on Leiter, for example. Nobody was excited when we picked up Merryweather, Robertson, and more. We got hyped over the Morrow signing and it looked solid for like a month. You just never know. Bullpens are extremely volatile from year to year.