Regular Show

Lots of good stuff in the latest UMP podcast on Fangraphs. Eric and Kiley talk about a bunch of different topics. Eric gives his take on Cubs prospects Erick Leal, Trent Giambrone and Nico Hoerner. Not big believers in Leal and think his stuff won't be good enough to get big-league hitters out consistently. They mention how he has a really good breaking ball. They talk about Giambrone and Eric says he is a good multi-positional prospect with a good athletic swing. He likes Giambrone more than Bote last year. Says he is better defensively, but doesn't have as much power as Bote. Lots of interesting stuff on Hoerner. Mentioned the divisive opinions on whether he can stick at SS because of the throwing/arm. Hoerner didn't run as well in the AFL. Eric said he was a "plus plus runner in the spring". Thinks the Cubs tweaked his swing and is showing way more power now. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdongenhagen-project-ep-6/

He's mentioned in an article on fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-kieran-lovegrove-is-loquacious-and-available/

[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]

[tweet] [/tweet] Well, this news sucks for Royals fans.

[tweet] [/tweet] I'm sure Dr. Jazayerli is not happy about this development lol.

[tweet] [/tweet] No mention of Nico among the fastest runners in the AFL. So that doesn't mean he's slow or below-average in terms of running; just not among the most elite runners in the AFL (according to Jim Callis). On a good note, Nico is mentioned in the "others considered" for Best Hitter. Vlad Jr. won Best Hitter and Best Power (no surprise there). Nate Pearson won Best Fastball.

[tweet] [/tweet]

I knew I had read the 4.1 somewhere. Apparently it was "consistently 4.1-4.2". Even at 4.2, Law's version of "below average" is ridiculous. http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-nico-hoerner/ I want to talk to some scouts and ask them what his normal range is because 4.2-4.1 time to first for a RHH is actually plus to plus-plus (70) territory and I'm not sure Hoerner is that fast. Maybe Law just caught him on a bad day? I like Law's scouting reports and he's generally very good. I think I only disagree with his notes/scouting reports occasionally and it's usually over a draft prospect.

You guys know how I feel about rankings and those scouting grades! As far as I can tell this and Law’s claims are both heavily subjective Honestly can’t say I’m impressed by the few things that have come out of the AFL on Hoerner. He’s been pushed yada yada but the tools seem second division Being clocked at 4.1 isn't subjective. That's borderline plus speed from a RH hitter. I am probably with you on most of Hoerner's tools being 2nd division though. The hope is that the 45 power turns into 55 down the road with launch angle stuff, and that the speed/instincts will allow the 50 arm to stay at SS. There's also the hope that the 55 bat can slightly bump up to 60. We aren't talking about a superstar even if everything aligns perfectly, but the sum of the parts is a 1st division starter with some luck and good player development. Yeah, I agree with that assessment. It's just hard to know what the final product will look like or how he'll develop over the next couple years. He might get instruction/guidance on how to field better/make his arm stronger/alter his swing and use his lower-half to hit for more power. He should get a little bit stronger naturally as he matures, but he's pretty close to physically maxed out. Also, the most important tool for me for a position player is the hit tool. You have to hit (or be crazy good defensively) to stick in the big leagues and sometimes plus hitters develop some game power that goes beyond their raw power. No one projected Mookie Betts or Jose Altuve to have this much power. They certainly don't show it during BP. If Hoerner's hit tool is really special maybe the power comes down the road. Also, launch angle stuff can help like in Bote's case, but I don't want to mess with his swing. Last thing is speed can be measured, but I didn't have a time and I haven't seen one online. A 4.1 time to first is very good and matches what I saw on film. Should be rated a plus in running if that's his normal time. Also, seems like a better runner underway once he gets going like KB. I don't expect him to be a prolific basestealer but maybe his instincts are really good. We'll have a better idea next year once he gets promoted (or starts the season) to AA.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1054031458778656768[/tweet] Somehow missed this one. Talks about Vlad Jr. in the beginning and how he'll have to move off 3B eventually. 1B/DH is his future. Talks about how bored he looks out there and is trying to have fun/take big swings to entertain the crowds. These are the only Cubs prospects he talks about (no report on Giambrone). Not a glowing opinion on Hoerner from Keith Law. I think he's an average to slightly above-average runner. Looks pretty fast on film. I mean you can measure this by clocking his time to first. I'm surprised he doesn't mention the swing or hit tool. Again, maybe this report was from early in the AFL? Doesn't mention the arm or how he rates it. He mentions a bunch of other prospects in the article.

Well, he's not wrong lol.

I'm facing someone who has him in fantasy hoops so I hope that doesn't happen... I have Steph on my squad and was hoping he would go off for 50+ pts again.

I was looking up more info on Brett Baty and came across this old tweet lol: [tweet] [/tweet]

He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu. Yeah, he definitely doesn't have the upside of Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I think it comes down to how much power he'll ultimately develop. I was down on the pick on draft night because there were still some high upside pitchers available. I didn't realize Nico would be this good with the bat. I don't care about lineup construction too much, but he could be our long-term solution at leadoff as a high-average/high-OBP guy.

I can't tell if you're making fun of me or being earnest...

[tweet] [/tweet]

I think if we want someone in this multi-inning role we should look to Tampa Bay and what they've been doing. They have a lot of interesting relievers. I like Ryne Stanek, but it's going to be hard to acquire him. Also, Eovaldi will be signed as a starter and the Cubs should stay far away from him. I think he's getting hurt again and I think signing him for more than a 1-year deal (plus an option or multiple options) is stupid. Great stuff, but a terrible delivery/arm action.

Oh okay. Ah, so I don't think he has good enough command to be a multi-inning fireman either. He definitely has the stuff for that role. Maybe if his control/command improves? During his bad stretches he just struggles to throw strikes so the chances of having a bad inning/outing would only increase in a multi-inning role.

I think in the abstract that makes sense, but I also have a sneaking suspicion that 2019 is the year Edwards blows his arm out. He doesn't have the control or command to be a starter. Come on guys. Also, I could see Edwards wearing down and there's a much greater chance of him getting hurt if you made him a starter. Dude just can't fill out and get stronger. I'm not sure about "blowing out his arm" because honestly he doesn't overexert himself on the mound. His pitching mechanics are fine (like in terms of staying healthy; maybe not the best for good command/control). He's a good athlete and has a good delivery. Every pitcher can get hurt and blow out their UCL, but Hendricks and Edwards are two pitchers I'd put near the bottom of the list. I'd put good money on them never getting a TJS in their careers.

You can vote Nico in: Nico is most definitely getting into the game now. This vote shouldn't even be close.

The Warriors look even more unstoppable this year. Steph is playing on another level right now and could win another MVP. I think Boogie Cousins will be a nice addition once he's ready. KD looks more comfortable in this offense now. I think Houston is the only team capable of beating them, and they might need to trade for Butler to have a good chance. Also, need CP3 to stay healthy.

Yeah, one of those bad seasons got the Red Sox the #7 pick and they selected Andrew Benintendi (the Cubs wanted him badly and were two picks behind them). The other bad season and another #7 pick led to them selecting LHP Trey Ball, who is not a pitcher or really a prospect anymore. So much luck is involved in the draft and teams messing up selections and allowing other teams to capitalize with their picks. We don't get KB in the 2013 draft if the Astros aren't stupid when they decided to take Mark Appel #1.

To be fair, Steve Pearce is some kind of October monster that can't be slayed. He's batting .286/.432/.600 in the postseason. Yeah, SSS and all that, but he was really good during the regular season as well.

[tweet] [/tweet]

Again, I'm almost positive the Cubs will NOT lose their first round pick for signing Bryce Harper (after he receives the QO from the Nats). I'm pretty sure I'm right. I'm doubting myself because multiple posters here keep saying this... I believe the Cubs would lose their 2nd round pick + $500K in IFA money for the next signing period. If they finished the season over the luxury tax threshold I believe they would lose their 2nd round and 5th round picks + $1 mil in IFA money. I don't think the Cubs finished the season over the luxury tax and just managed to stay underneath it.