chopsx9

MY problem with this, unless I am reading it wrong, is that it values all victories the same. I'm in a rush so I'm probably going to botch this but.... Every team is going to win 40 games (or pick whatever number you want). My argument would be that your 80th victory is much harder to attain and is thus worth more than your 40th and therefore is going to cost more. Your 90th win is going to be exponentially more than your 80th. You could spend league mininmum on every player and you still going to win some games.

Done!

Not to be too obvious but the real crime here is that he achieved the necessary threshold. How low can you go before someone has lower? 12?

Dude I said that was a possibilty - not a likely one in my opinion. Following your exact same logic Fukudome is a much worse hitter than he is in those hot streaks...yadda yadda. His history has been to go into prolonged slumps which don't conform to any month in particular other than seeminly skipping April his first 3 years. Isn't, virtually, this exact point in my post - I just said I didn't think it was the likely outcome - it hasn't been the last two years. Yes but I would argue that in Soriano's good years his hot streaks outweighed his slumps by more than Fukudome's have to this point. Actually, the exact opposite. To assume his numbers would have gotten better goes entirerly against his history since he had those hot streaks in previous years, where he had those extra at bats, and his numbers ended up worse anyway. He was above his career numbers and I'm saying that is a result of him sitting more during his slumps. If you want to assume otherwise it's a free country...I just don't see any compelling evidence to do so.

True, and I wouldn't advocate for Kosuke to be the starting right fielder if he didn't provide very good defense in right. I'd like to see his overall offensive production rise, but he still brings more to the table than Colvin does. Also keep in mind, Colvin's home run rate was very likely completely unsustainable this year. If that lowers, his SLG lowers and that OPS drops below .800 with only decent defense. His OPS and wOBA have both gotten better each of the three years he's been in America. His PAs went up from year one to year two and then down from year two to year three. The biggest positive increase in his numbers came when his PAs increased from year one to year two. And the decreased PAs from 2009 to 2010 were mostly against righties, as he had 67 PAs against lefties in 2009 and 50 in 2010. So most of the decreased PAs were against the side he traditionally hits better. There's really nothing to support your speculation that I can see. Fukudome played virtually every game through the end of May. Somewhere in the middlish of May he began sucking hard which continued through July. The Cubs were quicker to pull the string this year and he missed probably 80 - 90 at bats during that time. I believe if he had played through that time his season numbers would have been worse. Is it possible that if the Cubs stuck with him his August hot streak would have come earlier and that it would have spurned him on to better final numbers? ABSOLUTELY. I don't think it would have, but it is certainly a possibility.

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post. What a ridiculous thing to take from that post. Read the [expletive] again I read it again, and it is still a stupid post. Anything else? I think you only read nine words of the post. A guy who doesn't believe Colvin is a legit starter makes this statement and you find it ridiculous? Of course it's a ridiculous statement. I didn't think Randy Wells had what it took to be a ML Starter - I am THRILLED that I was wrong - and I certainly never HOPED he'd suck at it. I hope every player that puts on Cubs jersey performs at a HOF level - I could care less if it validates my assessment of their playing skills. I would be first in line jumping for joy if Fukudome was NL MVP next year. Won't happen - but I'd celebrate harder than anyone.

because an earlier post said Colvin's OPS was not good for a starting RF.

For a right fielder, an .820 OPS isn't real good for a starter. Fukudome's career high is .810 and his career average is .778. AND -pure speculation on my part - I'd bet if he'd gotten the same number of at bats as he had the previous 2 years, last years number would have been a whole lot closer to his career average.

Exactly. And the Cubs will only be paying Garza $5-6 million for this coming season with the likelihood of it going up into 10 million and higher for the following two seasons. Yeah, as I've said for this trade to make sense Garza has to continue his production from Tampa at a minimum and probably improve upon it. Not to be an ass or anything but...what other possibilities are there? Isn't that the belief/assumption/hope of any trade that isn't the dump of a bad contract? Nobody trades for a player thinking if he stagnates and gets worse its all good anyway.

If Raines were a middle infielder he would have been in long ago. Not sure Alomar makes it in as an outfielder.

Stone is an ex-Cub.

Ced Landrum, FTW. Chico Walker =D>

Well, it is only Chris Davis, I don't expect someone like Rosenthal to have his ears to the ground about every Chris Davis rumbling. But shouldn't he have his ear to ground on every Cub rumbling??

Not to quibble but he's never sniffed the upper ends of those ranges. His career OBP is .368 and SLG is .410 - although it has gone up each year...still it's a little optimistic, I think, to use those ranges for him.

There's 2 1/2 years difference in their ages thats well within the ball park. That's why were not comparing slash stats. There's a whole plethora of metrics out their specifically designed to compare players of different skill sets. I can't find anywhere where I suggested that was the case. My question was they make similar salaries are they of similar value? Which is fair...I disagree...I'd bet he makes closer to Marlon Byrd money than he does 10M. (obviously assuming no dramatic changes)

In 2008, Dunn made $13 million. Kosuke made $13 mil last year. Dunn also made $12 mil last year. If I was looking for an outfielder, I'd strongly consider Kosuke over Dunn because of defense. If I had an opening at first, where I could minimize Dunn's horrid defense, I'd take Dunn in a heartbeat. The list I saw had Fukudome at 14M for last year - but the point really was do you consider them equivalent players? I don't (and I'm not nearly the Dunn fan that some are) Lets pretend Fukudome is a FA this year. Is there a team anywhere on the planet that is going to offer him $14M or 12M or 10M...?

I don't think both sides of that sentence can co-exist - it's a little late so forgive me if I am missing something. I think if the second part is true the first can't be true - outside of a Carl Pavano or Aubrey Huff like situation; or a star rookie with little service time which he really shouldn't be compared to. Would you rather have Dunn or Fukudome? Adam Dunn has never, and may never, make as much as Fukudome did last year. ....and I am not suggesting that is definitive proof but it does show what the market will bear. Is he closer in value to Marlon Byrd or Aramis Ramirez?

Is Fukudome overpaid? Yes. Yes and no. but mostly...Yes :D

Is Fukudome overpaid? Yes.

After 3 years of pretty similar results - short of a huge last three games - what you see is what you get. Great in March/April - decent enough in May (less so this year) and then he is all over the place but there is always two months in the last four where he is absolutely absymal.

Turned it around from what? The point is Zambrano was never the High 4 ERA guy he was superficially earlier in the year. Well this is true as his ERA was never in the high 4's earlier in the year it was in the mid 6's and was over 7 as late as the middle of May and didn't drop below 5 until the end of August. I think it's fair to call it a turn around. Whether he was pitching to his true ability is immaterial - he was pitching poorly. I also think there was more going on at the begining of the year than we have heard - in regards to the moving to the bullpen.

Nope. 3rd C Patterson homered to right, F Pie scored. What could have been.

In fairness what players "should" do and what they do "do" aren't always the same thing. Soriano should layoff breaking balls that are low and outside. I bet he'd agree in a second - doesn't mean he's gonna do it. By the same logic Latroy Hawkins should be approaching HOF save totals.

If your basis for comparison is facial hair...then yes.

In case nobody else says it, thanks for the effort on this post. I'm not sure what I think of Colvin overall, but this was a very informative post and interesting to read. Yeah you lost me initially at "binary opposition of fan base" but based on the above prodding I took a second look and it was, indeed, an interesting read.