squally1313
-
Posts
10,357 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
23
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by squally1313
-
Nico Hoerner underwent successful right flexor tendon surgery
squally1313 replied to KCCub's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Oh no our 3.9 fWAR second baseman was actually playing through an injury, now he's getting it fixed and I'm upset that might mean we can't trade him -
Agreed that that is how that works, but the whole point of getting a Nick Martinez (not at all tied to him specifically, but going along with your example) is because he's (somewhat significantly) less likely to pitch like ass than a Javier Assad. Martinez just put up a year that was 3.5x better, fWAR wise, than Assad's best year (2024) in 5 less innings. Putting out a lesser pitcher because it offers more flexibility to swap him out for the guys that the lesser pitcher beat out for the spot is a good use of depth, but you risk emulating our bullpen revolving door in the 5th spot....you'll probably eventually end up with a solution, but what's it going to cost you in the meantime?
-
First part is fair, assuming we don't get pitcher-attritioned on the front end as opposed to the back end like we did this year. Obviously you can't gameplan for a Steele injury, but the forearm injury in September and the thought that we're one of those away from Jameson Taillon, Third Starter as a team with playoff aspirations is pretty depressing. As for the second part, I think dumping a bunch of money into the rotation also helps the bullpen. You go get two starters and keep Assad and Wicks stretched out either in the swing role or in Iowa, and then you tell Brown and Horton that they aren't starting this year and to go see how hard they can throw in two inning spurts. I'd rather go that route than throwing a dart at the 'FA relievers who gave you 1 fWAR last year' board.
-
I had a whole thing typed out but ultimately what it comes down to is that I don't really want any of those guys being our #5 starter going into next year. All of them outside of Assad are probably limited to 100 innings next year, if that. Assad had a brutal second half, Wicks' 35 innings were worse on a FIP/xFIP basis than Hendricks, Horton had 5 middling to bad starts in AAA and then blew up. And it's really just a matter of where to spend this money. I'll change my plan if we get Soto or swing a trade for a Vlad or Tucker or whatever other high AAV middle of the order guy, but why not spend $40m of the $50m on loading up the rotation? I don't think the offense needs any more $10m-$15m guys. Either go big, elite bat (and then use the Iowa lineup to get a starter), or find a competent catcher and a lefty masher and dump the rest of your resources into the rotation.
-
Definitely agreed on not wanting Buehler as the top option. Would push back a little on the notion that they have plenty of coverage, innings wise, internally. Had 860 innings by starters last year, and you're having to replace Hendricks (116) while ideally not wanting to lean on Assad (147) as much. I don't think you need to target a Buehler type to be your 6th/7th starters, but I would like 2 starters, one a step up from Taillon and one on close to the same ground.
-
2024 Other Games/Playoffs
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
I'm aware I'm very much oversimplifying this, but it seems outrageous to take this entire week off and then start the WS on Friday night and all the football of the weekend. Admit defeat and figure out a way to have games mid-week as much as possible. Having said that, will be interesting to see the national interest here. You couldn't have scripted this better if you're running MLB. Just hoping it's a good, long series. -
Why would you take Tom Ricketts at his word on anything
-
2024 Other Games/Playoffs
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Soto is incredible -
No you called out stratos for saying Jed has done well on long term deals and then unilaterally decided that ‘long term’ meant 6 or more years, which conveniently excludes taillon, shota, and Suzuki (all good contracts!). In his post he obviously meant to include those guys and then you excluded them from the argument. Goalposts, etc. Which, after all that, meant in your world Jed has signed one ‘long term deal’, out of the 19 total during his tenure, which has thus far also gone very well. Good point though!
-
There have been 19 contracts of 6 or more years handed out since Jed took over. He’s one of the 19. That’s by definition above average.
-
-
Everyone in this thread back on August 1 in an alternate world: "the Cubs are 5 games back of a wild card spot and we essentially just signaled to the team that we are punting on this year to save Rickett's $100k????"
-
2024 Other Games/Playoffs
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
I'm pretty capable of admiring an organization's approach to baseball without cheering for them, much less talking horsefeathers to hypothetical non-fans. Ohtani is great, but pretty tired/over most of the rest of the roster. -
Can we do a better link
-
Cubs had a 24.5% chance of making the playoffs at the trading deadline last year. I don't know, seems pretty "risky" to hold onto the established starting pitcher and go for the small playoff chance rather than dump him for minor league talent! But that's just me.
-
Look, if the lessons you took from the Theo regime were that we needed to make 'risky' moves like the Quintana deal or the Kimbrel signing, you are looking in all the wrong places. It'd be like watching a football team hit a 50 yard bomb for a TD and then take an excessive celebration penalty after and lamenting why your team doesn't do the excessive celebrating. Jed should, by way of emulating Theo: Identify minor league talent that can be acquired in trade and turn into elite talent. I think he's fine on that so far, but obviously there aren't any Rizzos or Arrietas around. Develop minor league talent into actual major league success. Maybe KB, Baez, and Schwarber were just better players than Wicks/Horton/Shaw/Smith, but at least some responsibility falls on the guy in charge of the organization. This also comes into play in the bullpen. Do a better job on the fringes of the roster so that you have Tommy La Stella and Chris Coghlan and not Hosmer and Madrigal. These (and more) are valid criticisms.
-
Yep, you really nailed it with the 'you need to take risks to be successful, just look at the Jake Arrieta deal' argument.
-
We talking trades in general? Our starting first baseman, center fielder, and third baseman next year were acquired in trades. Alcantara and Caissie were both acquired in trades. As were Wesneski and Kilian, though obviously diminishing returns there. If you want to argue that Theo did a better job selling major league players on bad teams for prospects than Jed has done so far....sure. Arrieta and Rizzo trades go down in history. But that is very much not 'risky' behavior and very much not what your original argument was. Or are we just ultimately settling on 'Theo is a better GM than Hoyer', because, man, really going out on a limb there.
-
Yeah, all in trades where we were sending major league talent for minor league prospects. Is that the risky behavior you're looking for? Because Jed has done pretty good there (see: PCA).
-
Was Theo more successful in his 10 year run as Chicago's GM than Hoyer has been in his 4 years? Of course, the flags flying in Wrigley show that. Did the Quintana trade or the Soler/Wade Davis trade or the Kimbrel signing have anything to do with that success? No. Your argument was that 'willing to take risks' correlated to success, and then showed a bunch of examples that didn't lead to success and arguably hamstrung the beginning of Jed's time. Theo signed Lester, Jed signed Swanson (first two years fWAR, 9.1 to 9.2). Theo signed Heyward, Jed has committed $100m to Bellinger. Maybe it's possible that the success that Theo had wasn't from trading prospects for big names, but from Rizzo, KB, Javy, Russell (acquired in a sell trade!), Hendricks, Arrieta, etc coming through the system and becoming elite players at cost controlled salaries, something that just stopped happening under Theo right around 2017.
-
So the intention in your original post was to give a fair, even handed, comprehensive even, look at the things Theo did right and the things he did wrong? You meant to include the Kimbrel signing and Quintana trades as criticisms of Theo?
-
General Offseason Priorities
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Sure but he had player options, and if Belli at 2/60 is a 50/50 proposition after his 2024, Chapman at 2/36 after his would be pretty much a guarantee. So you'd be out Chapman (and presumably Paredes), but you have had about 4 more 'wins' in 2024 and also 6 months to decide if you wanted to come up with a(n ideally more palatable) extension, or you'd be sure you had $80m to spend this offseason. -
General Offseason Priorities
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Well the currently locked up version of Chapman, agreed. The one year deal Chapman would be a lot easier than where we're at now (though I'm more down on Bellinger than I probably should be). -
General Offseason Priorities
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
...having said that, signing Chapman instead of Bellinger would have been much better for 2024 and beyond 2024 purposes -
Yeah you know who would have looked nice on these last two Jed Hoyer teams that were competitive until September? Dylan Cease and his 8.2 fWAR over that time!
