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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Too much for me, I think. Cubs are going from Assad (1) to Crochet (4.5) and then from Hoerner (4) to Shaw (1.5?)*. Wicks and Caissie is a lot for a win. I think Caissie becomes more important in a post Hoerner world where there's less uncertainty about offensive production (ie if Shaw falls on his face), and a rotation where 60% of it is Crochet/Steele/Boyd still needs plenty of depth. Would rather let them figure out Ballesteros or else go further down the minor league rungs since the Sox aren't close to contention. *Plus roughly $15m in cap space over the next two years. Edit: Said another way, we've got a 2 year window right now and the Sox very clearly don't, so I would prioritize keeping pieces who can provide help in that window (Caissie, Wicks, Horton) and try to sell them on Cam Smith, Jaxon Wiggins, Christian Hernandez, etc.
  2. squally1313
    And that's with picking up like...$7m in cap space. Lineup: Happ/Seiya/Cody/Busch/Paredes/Shaw/Swanson/PCA/Amaya. Bench is....very unsettled Pitching: Crochet/Steele/Shota/Taillon/Boyd and last years bullpen Fangraphs has our total number at $201m right now with the first lux tax cap at $241. Let's say the number is $230m internally for whatever reason, going from Nico's $11.5m to Crochet's $3m is another $8.5 and so we'd be at roughly $37.5m to address the bullpen/catcher/bench. Would be fine going cheap on catcher (and maybe bench) and going to get a high quality bench to go back to the discussed 10 guys/9 spots arrangement, but gives you some flexibility. Depending, of course, on what other prospects would be included.
  3. squally1313
    (gigantic shrug) It's a podcast. Were these guys discussing the Matt Boyd deal before it landed? Anyone have the Busch or Paredes trades in advance last year? They're filling space.
  4. squally1313
    The 116 innings we got from Kyle Hendricks last year, as a start. 147 starter innings from Assad generating 1 fWAR would be the next one. Also, who is saying it satisfied any palette?
  5. squally1313
    Are there even 10 teams in baseball that can satisfy giving up three of your top prospects in baseball that are at a level of those three (22, 34, 55 per MLB)? A quick glance is like, the Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Red Sox. Couple more teams could probably get away with two better prospects (Orioles, Padres) but seems like a tough barrier to entry to have that many teams be in the conversation.
  6. squally1313
    I assume this part is contingent on the Soto domino falling somewhere besides the Bronx, but sounds like we'll know that in the next few days anyways.
  7. squally1313
    I think he would have to basically be lapping the field offensively (like, 150+ wRC) to consider calling him up this year. Start him every day behind the plate and see if he can get to a passable spot. 104 wRC in AAA getting called up as a bat-only option in his age 21 season doesn't make any sense.
  8. squally1313
    It's been talked about before, but his bat has progressed at a pace that was probably detrimental to his future as a catcher. He's basically gotten 55-70 games at each level because until AAA his worst offensive performance was a 128 wRC, and as someone who was never known as a plus defensive guy, I can't imagine that's a pace that is going to optimize his defensive development. Like, a little apples to oranges, but this is going to be his age 21 season and he's comfortably the starting AAA catcher, if not knocking on the door. At that point, Rutschman was playing rookie and A ball. Now, the counter point is someone like William Contreras got 382 minor league games starting at age 17 (like Ballesteros), which is only 31 more than Ballesteros has. But that might be an outlier (Willson got 517 games), and I think the everpresent concerns about Ballesteros behind the plate means him coming up at a pace that outstrips all these guys is a little ambitious.
  9. squally1313
    You pick up a starter to replace Assad. +2 You pick up a catcher to bump Amaya to back up. +1 Bullpen upgrades. +1.5? Going from Paredes to Peraza/Shaw. -1.5 Going from Hoerner to Lowe. -1.5 Removing Bellinger as your right fielder, leaving either a hole at RF or DH. -1 Prospect/depth, remove Triantos/Rojas/Gray/Sanders/Alcantara/Kilian, add Riggio/Beeter. Minimal 2025 loss, definitely worse off long term. I don't know, based on all that obviously exact science above, we're netting out at like the same end game, with worse prospect depth? I missed a couple things I'm sure.
  10. squally1313
    An unproveable statement delivered as factual and the end all be all of the conversation. Perfect.
  11. squally1313
    But in a sport where value comes from multiple different avenues, it uses a whole bunch of data and people working full time to determine how to contextualize offensive value vs baserunning value vs defensive value (and to that front, the value of elite/good/bad defense at different positions) and a far better way to try to compare what would otherwise be apples and oranges. Whereas most people around here, in their pursuit to minimize the advanced statistics, just place arbitrary weights on how important offensive production is vs defensive production (or how important it is at certain positions, or how important on base/ball on bat skills are vs slugging/power, etc etc etc). Like, (as a hypothetical, do not put actual players into these roles) comparing the best offensive/worst defensive player in baseball to the worst offensive/best defensive player in baseball is borderline impossible without some sort of attempt to weigh player As offensive contributions vs player Bs defensive contributions. Which player will lead to more wins? How many more wins?
  12. squally1313
    It's not that WAR is some end all be all summation of a player's value. It's that referring to someone as a 4 win player or a 2 win player or whatever is, like, infinitely more helpful than 'a league-average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense'. Ok, how valuable is that compared to a second baseman who is a good hitter but plays bad defense? Or a first baseman who is a really good hitter but is bad defensively even for a first baseman? Or a DH with a .350 wOBA? Or a first baseman who is a league average hitter (with no power) who plays good defense?
  13. squally1313
    I mean, I get your points, but you should probably care about the reasons if you’re going to come to some final conclusion on the deal 12 hours into the contract.
  14. squally1313
    Will the players taking his roster spot give us better production than you would expect him to give us?
  15. squally1313
    I get the feeling I could that for every GM in baseball if I also just chose to willfully ignore all the good deals they did
  16. squally1313
    Yeah you're probably right just in that even a 'cost controlled' game changer in the rotation or the lineup is probably in the $10m-$15m range, if not higher. Me and everyone else keeps coming back to the Mariners just because of the different pieces (Miller/Woo at league minimum, Kirby for cheap, Castillo/Bellinger swap, Bellinger in general to shore up their RF/DH spots, Haniger as salary relief, good amount of prospects on both sides to square things up, similar position on the 'contention' scale, etc etc etc) and all the ways they can fit together, but being stuck with one team for all my dreams is probably wishful thinking.
  17. squally1313
    I'm still holding out hope for a cost controlled bat or arm (through a pretty significant prospect cost), and then the rest of the free agent money going mostly to the one they don't trade for, with whatever's left shoring up the pen or catcher. Bellinger becoming your de facto first guy off the bench makes me a lot less worried about the other two non-catcher guys on there. Shaw or Triantos will still be there in case of a Paredes/Swanson/Hoerner injury, Happ/PCA/Seiya/Bellinger/Busch/new bat/whoever is left of Caissie/Alcantara can handle any other injuries.
  18. squally1313
    I think that's a fall back option at best. I assume you're talking about the 13 innings in 2022 for Seattle, where the ERA was sparkling but he also threw 9 walks in under 14 innings (including a one out, one walk playoff performance). He's always been death on lefties, so there's specific opponents/situations where it would work. And, realistically, you're probably looking at stretches where he's not up at full starter-strength so there's opportunity there.
  19. squally1313
    On the one (more important) hand, I probably would not have made this signing. There's some interesting ways to look at it if you squint the right way and it's especially a move that has to be looked at as part of the broader picture, but...pass. On the other hand, committing $14m/year to a pitcher like this (on sale dollar store DeGrom?) doesn't really scream 'PTR is handcuffing Jed and the payroll is most definitely coming down'. You just don't (or I guess, 'can't') make this move in a world where you have like $30m to spend, especially this early on.
  20. squally1313
    I think it's maybe a problem of conflating causation and correlation. Like there are only a handful of these guys every year, us not signing one (and we have before) does not equate to the Cubs overly/disproportionately caring about the pick loss as much as it means that there are just not a lot of these players out there and there are 30 teams. Like, the conclusion of the Juan Soto saga will not be that 29 teams were unwilling to commit serious money to a free agent of his caliber, it just means that he can only sign with one team.
  21. squally1313
    Point/counterpoint: Point: I agree with you, 98% of draft picks are not worth nearly as much as an actual major league player, or even the incremental cost or however you want to define it. Counterpoint: Extending that sample size to 2014 brings in a certain Mississippi southpaw who has been kinda awesome the last few years. Countercounterpoint: If you would tell me that the last remaining barrier in signing a QO player this offseason would be that we were giving up a top 30ish starter in 2033, I'd still make that trade.
  22. squally1313
    1. This is Bob Nightengale, in the slowest period of the major league season, needing to write something to fulfill his job title as 'baseball writer'. Yawn, grain of salt, etc etc 2. While I kinda get Tom's point, even in his very Tom way of saying it, I think it's....putting the cart before the horse? Is that the right analogy? There's a budget of debatable firmness in place internally as well as league wide guardrails that reinforce those budget constraints. I wish the players took home 80% of the revenue and we could stop worrying about making sure PTR gets his standard 15% yearly ROI for effectively doing nothing. But that's not the case. I want Jed to go out and spend every single dollar he can pry away from the ownership group, and I realize that with that pool of money, there are decisions that need to be made to maximize actual production on the field. $20m or $30m or whatever doesn't just add 3-4 wins to your record. I'm not sitting here griping about Cody Bellinger Making Too Much Money. I'm saying I would rather have Corbin Burnes because I think it makes us win more, and while there exists a world where we can have a both, it's much less likely than in a world where someone else is paying Bellinger the money he deserves. To use one example.
  23. squally1313
  24. squally1313
    Phil Bickford to the cubs on a (everyone, relax) minor league deal. Searched his name to see if anyone else has posted about this and came to the conclusion that everyone here thought he sucked/was washed up back in August. So there’s that.
  25. squally1313
    Everything I'm seeing has him getting $25m-$30m a year. I'd love if that was a rounding error for the Cubs, but realistically that comes at the expense of a top line starter or a more impactful offensive (less impactful defensive) player. But then you're hurting someone else's WAR by giving them a disproportionate amount of PAs against the toughest pitchers, and obviously we're focused on overall wins, not individual.
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