squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread
squally1313 replied to Crusader's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Eh. 2023 Madrigal gave you 1.2 fWAR in 290 PAs, very good defense somehow, and an 85 wRC with an 8% K rate. It may not be replicable, and it almost certainly isn't 2025 Madrigal. But glove/contact is plenty sufficient for me. -
Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread
squally1313 replied to Crusader's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I honestly don't see a lot of difference between 2025 Matt Shaw and 2025 Yoan Moncada. Both are likely to struggle, but hold the promise of upside and cheap production, if they're both around I'm not sure you can really give either one a full roll of the dice. Give me 2023 Madrigal or just a glove first guy because that's probably where the biggest questions fall for Shaw, as long as they are cheap, and see what happens. -
I would have rather they signed Chapman last year than Bellinger, but that scenario only exists in an alternate, Kyle Tucker-less world so whatever. Every single person would have lost their horsefeathers if we had signed no one last year, and while he wasn't the best he was certainly better than a Jordan Montgomery path. It's fine, wish he would have played better and then opted out, whatever. You can play the market perception game both ways. We have a logjam and a money crunch, the Yankees need a guy like Bellinger and him at 2 years is probably better than Santander at 6 or whatever. Both teams have a bunch of things going on right now and sorting out the combination of money and prospects heading in either direction probably depends on where the other moves fall out. If we had already signed a closer and an upper tier bench bat and we NEEDED to dump Bellinger to get back under the cap, sure, I'd be worried. Absolute worst case, we go into next year with a moderately inefficient allocation of talent. It's probably going to be fine.
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Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread
squally1313 replied to Crusader's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Is there anything to suggest workman would have a better April in the pros than Shaw would? Or is this more about wanting shaw to check all the boxes on his way up before giving him the spot? Because if that’s the case, I still lean towards Shaw skipping his AAA graduation ceremony and jumping in the deep end. He’s done more at AAA than PCA ever did, and yeah, it was a rough 6-8 weeks for PCA but he came out of it alright and if our alternate third base plan doesn’t involve league average production anyways…might as well run with Shaw and give yourself the chance that he’s a unicorn? -
lol everyone was expecting 9m-10m a year but yeah sure, got to doom boner somehow after everything that happened today
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No that wasn’t a shot. I’m pretty sure what Bertz is referring to and what I am are aligned. He would have hit 26 home runs last year if every fly ball he hit was at Houston’s stadium. Tucker being a lefty and not really taking advantage of the Crawford boxes is just another testament of how good he is and how seamlessly his talent will travel.
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Claiming 20% of the twitter revenue here from whoever this is here
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Hey Roki Sasaki, we just added a fourth Gold Glover to our defense, PCA is probably the best center fielder in baseball, and Carson Kelly is excellent behind the plate. Please ignore third base thanks.
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If Paredes played every single game in Houston last year, he would have hit 26 home runs. Tucker hit 23 in 78 games.
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Alright let me nuke whatever credit I built up here: Suzuki is now our 5th best defensive outfielder, by a good margin, and has come out publicly in the last 48 hours about wanting to play the field. Does it make any sense at all to explore trading him for an actual return instead of a Bellinger salary dump? The obvious (and most likely correct) answer is no, why would you take away your second best hitter, etc. But there's an argument an essentially full time DH Suzuki tops out at a 3 fWAR guy, and if he moves the needle on, say, a Seattle starting pitcher, maybe you think about it? Totally insane?
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Makes you wonder why he's already had so many postseason opportunities. Insane that he already has 247 career PAs in the post season. 80 more than any Cub ever. Even his mediocre postseason numbers give him more HRs, runs, RBIs than any Cub.
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Tucker's 180 wRC last year would have been the second best Cubs offensive performance in the modern era (I'm excluding Ross Barnes hitting .429 in 1876, apologies to the Barnes family). 2001 Sosa and that's it. 2005 Derreck Lee? 170 1998 Sosa? 159 2016 KB? 146
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Happ Tucker Suzuki Busch Dansby PCA Hoerner Shaw Amaya
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Hey Brock what is the max amount of dumb 'this will never happen because Hoyer is a pussy' posts I can quote in a single post?
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Now do 2024 wRC/wOBA (after lowering the minimum PA threshold)
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oh baby
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The worst, most terrified GM in baseball on the verge of turning Chris Morel and the 73rd best prospect in baseball into a 180 wRC hitter over multiple trades in a 6 month period
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You're especially all over the place today
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Like, Gavin Lux put up 251/320/383 with negative defensive production last year and that was good enough for 1.5 fWAR in 487 PAs. This isn't a Shaw v Lux prospect pedigree comparison, it's more me saying that Shaw can lose 225 points of OPS from his AAA performance and still be ok.
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In the same way that Matt Shaw isn't Kris Bryant, he also isn't PCA. PCA more or less bottomed out in AAA offensively, at least in terms of what you'd expect from a top prospect (60 games and 275 PAs of like a 103 wRC). Shaw put up 142 wRC in his 35 games/152 PAs there, and has since had a loud offseason in terms of non-Cub production. Now, Shaw certainly isn't going to give you the defensive production as a backstop, but casting PCAs pre-August offensive production (550 OPS, 55 wRC) on Shaw isn't fair either.
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Castellanos to the Cubs, ok sure, good call
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I mean, that's an absurd tweet
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Wait, hold on. Matt Shaw is absolutely not Kris Bryant. But not a single person here is expecting him to put up 6 fWAR in his rookie season. I won't speak for anyone else here, but I'm totally fine with the expectation being a 3 win upgrade from Bellinger to Tucker and a 1.5 win downgrade from Paredes (3) to Shaw (1.5). I'll take the marginal upgrade, plus whatever we get for Bellinger, plus the $15ish m in 2025 net salary reduction, plus 12 months of exclusive negotiation with Tucker, plus the possibility of the right side of the bell curve on Shaw's performance. Shaw will most likely struggle. It's harder to hide that when you try to trot out the line up of 9 above average players. It's easier when you have a 160-180 wRC bat in the middle of it.
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Probably, until they sign Burnes.
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While I'm still on Team Shaw-Opening-Day-Starter, I'll acknowledge we need someone else on the roster. If we're going to dip into something like Moncada....just re-sign Wisdom for $1m. Warm body, good fit in the clubhouse, etc. Whatever money we have needs to go to the pitching staff.
