squally1313

I mean, no, you're not wrong. The Cubs have played at a 94 win pace so far this year (wth the 10th hardest SOS). Not to repeat myself from the other thread, but I don't think anyone saw them as a 94 win team going into the year, and I don't think anyone sees meaningful improvements that would change the original assertion (PCA moves it up, Steele moves it down, etc). Thankfully, the wins are already banked and you can't take them away, and playing the rest of the year as the team most people thought they were (high 80s win total) gets you to a 90+ win team.

Brain dumping here because last night's game sucked and then it was hot as hell in our house so I lingered on it more than I/anyone should. We're 79 games in, and I think, though the particulars have changed a little, my opinion of the true talent level of the team as currently constructed is largely unchanged from what it was going into the season, which is that it's roughly an 88 win team. PCA found another level, but it's important to remember that the FG projections loved him (like 4.5-5 fWAR if I remember), and I think that step up is more or less offset by losing Steele. My analysis of the rest of the offense hasn't changed much based on first half performance. Horner/Suzuki/Swanson are all trending to be worth between 3 and 4 wins, Busch a shade under 3, Happ had a slow start but I still think he's the same player going forward. Carson Kelly is still Just Carson Kelly, but we were able to bank some wins off of his Barry Bonds stint, which is nice.Pitching is, minus Steele, overall the same for me too. Horton is better than I thought, but I'm downgrading Shota a little based on what we saw earlier in the year. Bullpen is So anyways, 88 win team. Split the next two games, as an 88 win team should, and you're looking at 47-34 at the halfway point. Another 44 wins in the second half gets us to 91. Do I think that's enough to win the division? Pretty definitively yes. It requires the Cardinals and/or Brewers playing at a 93 win pace the rest of the year to overtake us, and I just don't see the talent level there for that to be a reasonable expectation. On the flip side, I think we're still a clear step behind the Dodgers, and probably not quite at the level of the Phillies. There are moves to make to get us to the Phillies level or even better, and I think we should make them, if just to solidify the division chances (the fact that both teams are right there is a little more concerning than simply a two team race). We have the money, we have the prospect capital, we have essentially our whole lineup returning next year (besides, obviously, Tucker). We should lean into this window. The Dodgers will be better, but playoff baseball is stupid and coin flippy and we should maximize our chances at appearances and ideally byes. As for the Jed conversation...as someone who has generally been on his side, I think if he doesn't make it he probably has to go. We usually like to appeal to process over results here and I think the org is in a healthy spot. But I also think we, or at least I, tend to appeal to authority sometimes when moves are made/not made and I don't quite understand the reasoning. "Well this guy looks like he sucks, but Jed's found talent in these spots before, etc" and I think after a hypothetical three years of missing the playoffs, you almost have to do the opposite. I look at the overall decisions/process and see a (flawed) playoff team, but....you have to actually make them at some point. Three seasons of some level of 'going for it' is a large enough sample size that the process over results thing starts to lose a little authority.

Which pitch is seiya going to get screwed on

First and third and one out for a strikeout prone LHB vs a tough LHP is not a guaranteed run

5’10”, 260 lb right fielder dives into the netting to make the play. Sure.

Christ ump

Yeah I know there are very valid logistical/contractual reasons against this, but if we can have Brown simultaneously learn a third pitch while also not accruing any innings for like, a month, that would be fantastic. Easy to say you can just throw him into the bullpen when he looks fixed, but....Colin Rea still exists and starters break a lot.

Hodge up Brown down

Mets 1-9, though it's probably pretty likely that those fans are actually jumping off bridges. (Tigers are actually 5-5, same as Cubs, but their subreddit as far as I can tell is just them being pumped about Javy being the leading CF vote getting for the ASG, which is pretty amazing/sweet. The Baez/PCA connections are insane.)

Your goalposts are just constantly on wheels huh

This guy seems cool

Donovan Solano career wRC: 98 carson Kelly career wRC: 89

Hahaha yeah the dude who JOed in a parking lot hit multiple home runs this series.

Other guy: this is the worst pitching performance in baseball’s storied history me: I don’t know man, there were some obviously unique circumstances going on here, we’ve been pretty good all year Other guy: I hope your life gets better, homophobic slur

Our backup catcher was the best hitter in baseball for like 6 weeks dude

I hope we go down to St. Louis and prove how much better of a team we are for obvious reasons, but also to at least temporarily shut up the half of this board who hate this team

The guy who has been a cubs fan for 48 years has never watched a wrigley game where the wind is howling out

(Almost) all bullpen pitchers suck

If you’d like to watch baseball but don’t feel like watching a terrible pitcher lose to a great pitcher, but still want terrible umps, LSU/coastal Carolina could be a good one, they just tossed the CCU manager and first base coach in the first inning, crowd is great.

Oh look, 119 wRC for Happ

Insane second page of this thread

Update the lead off stat again

well going to try to enjoy my friday which means getting the horsefeathers out of this thread. cubs are good, see you guys tomorrow

Do you think the cubs are good

Never putting the ball in fair territory but only striking out once is pretty impressive in its own way