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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    And he did it in 78 GAMES! Do people not understand how insane his season was last year? The wRC difference between 2024 Kyle Tucker and peak Kris Bryant (2016) is bigger than the difference between 2016 KB and 2024 Isaac Paredes. In terms of raw, slash line production, the only Cub comparables in the last 40 years are Sosa and 2005 DLee. In terms of league-relative performance, it's 2001 Sammy and that's it. He's 6th in outfield fWAR since 2022. It's Judge, Betts, Soto, Yordan, and Julio, and on a per/PA rate he's better than Julio. That's a combined like 50 years and $2b of contracts (don't quote me on that). These guys aren't available. 80% of Kyle Tucker is an unrealistic goal for any of our outfield prospects. It's not 'not easy', it's almost impossible.
  2. squally1313
    Yeah look how much everyone loved Kyle Hendricks this year!
  3. squally1313
    Ran the quick math on the zips projections for the 3 teams and it's the Cubs at 48.6, Brewers at 42.8, and Reds at 32.6, so there's a pretty huge gap there, though this was obviously before Lux and his 1.5 fWAR came over. They HATE the Reds bullpen, -0.3 combined projection there. And they love DLC and McLain (9 wins combined) but think that Candelario and Encarnacion-Strand are only going to give them about 2.5 wins total from the corners (little more now with Lux I assume). Outfield is pretty uninspiring too. Rotation certainly has potential, but not a whole lot else there besides the middle of the infield.
  4. squally1313
    Even more of a pass? Guy hasn't taken a major league at bad in three years and has a career .282 OBP. Giving him 20+ games with 3+ PAs just to carry a 9th bullpen guy seems to be significantly more creative than it's worth.
  5. squally1313
    Matthew Boyd was more valuable than Lorenzen in 90 less innings last year. I'm sure Lorenzen didn't want to pitch out of the bullpen (Fangraphs has him slotted as fourth in the Royals rotation next year), and I'd put him at the very most as our 6th best option right now (Assad outpitched him last year) in a world where everyone expects us to sign a better starter anyways. He's fine for $7m I guess, but we don't need him.
  6. squally1313
    I mean, the Cubs went into 2017, fresh off a World Series win driven by pitching and defense, needing to replace Jason Hammel and his all of 1.3 fWAR from a 103 win 2016 team. We could have done better than the assorted nonsense we went through pre-Quintana, but going out and getting some top line free agent to slot in behind Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/just above Lackey would certainly not be at the top of the list. They made a lot of mistakes in those years after (most of them, in my opinion, in the lower levels of the system), but throwing this particular one on the Rickett's pile seems a bit excessive.
  7. squally1313
    They can obviously fit a pitcher at a big 2025 salary. There's likely a one year crunch in 2026, and I think that's probably driving the push to stay under the cap this year and reset the count. But after 2026 they have roughly $80m (Happ, Seiya, Taillon, Boyd, Hoerner) coming off the books. They can absolutely have three guys taking up $100m of what will be a $250m first tier cap. I don't know if they necessarily want to lock in on a particular guy this offseason when they can probably go short term and still be pretty easy division favorites. But three guys making up 40% of our salary isn't that outrageous. You're basically just consolidating Happ and Suzuki into Tucker and then Taillon and Boyd into someone like Burnes or whatever.
  8. squally1313
  9. squally1313
    Do we know that? Starting pitcher, backup catcher, the biggest trade of the offseason and then also the Bellinger trade and it's not even January.
  10. squally1313
    I can maybe get on board with his defensive versatility, but he was a below average hitter in AAA last year and has a .264 OBP in almost 400 MLB PAs. Basically non-existent walk rate, K rates consistently above 20%. I generally trust Tom's finds, but it is a gigantic leap from what he's done to 'maybe he can take over for Hoerner next year'.
  11. squally1313
    Well, sure, but that's not happening
  12. squally1313
    This may sound defeatist, but if we don't get him....go to the Dodgers. It's not like we're going to competing with them for a wild card spot, yeah their chances of beating us in the NLCS go from 60% to 62%, who cares. Better them than the Mets, Padres, Giants in terms of the Cubs playoff chances.
  13. squally1313
    There's certainly a little bit of a cliff at the end of 2026. But it's moving, slowly, in the right direction. Your starting 1B, SS, CF, (presumably) 3B, and C are all under control through at least 2029, your top two starters are here through 2027/2028, Wicks/Brown/Hodge are all potential big pieces with loads of control. I think there's a likelihood that they're going to feel pretty comfortable with the roster by the end of this offseason for this 2025-2026 stretch (while allowing for some internal/external additions), and probably shy away from locking themselves into a large contract on a good, not-elite guy such as Cease until they see where the holes are really going to be. Happ and Suzuki falling off after 2026 requires a lot of attention IF Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros don't pan out. Boyd and Taillon having 2 years left becomes a problem then (if not sooner) if Horton/Birdsell/Wicks/Brown don't turn into starters. Etc.
  14. squally1313
    Sasaki is basically an incredible bonus that costs basically nothing to whoever ends up with him and should not impede or impact the decision making of the Cubs (or any other team) while they wait out his decision. Having both him and Imanaga in the rotation, to say nothing of guys like Boyd, Steele, and Luzardo that have battled injuries, would really lend itself to a 6 man rotation until you run into an inevitable injury. Also lets you really be comfortable letting someone like Ben Brown (or Horton) loose as a bullpen arm.
  15. squally1313
    Some very quick back of the envelope math on Cubs and other teams of interest (they have yet to do any other NL Central team): Cubs 48.6 Braves 53.1 Phillies 42.2 Dodgers 56.5 Giants (without Adames) 39.9 Arizona 43.7
  16. squally1313
    Luzurdo at 2.2 adds another win, but yeah, I guess pitching is a little lower than I'd like. Kinda drooling at the offensive projections though.
  17. squally1313
    These are....really good, right?
  18. squally1313
  19. squally1313
    lol what a reread of this thread given everything that's happened in the last month
  20. squally1313
    FG has Scott at 3/36. For a 30 year old reliever that seems pretty reasonable, but A. pitching has been going for above market pretty consistently, and B. in a Luzardo world, maybe they're a little concerned by making their top pen guy a lefty. I'm realizing you probably have Canario penciled in because he's out of options, but honestly....he could be gone tomorrow and I wouldn't think about him again. Too many Ks. For me you've got 6 spots to fill (3 bench, 3 pen). At least one on each side will be filled internally. I think there are three signings, and they should stay flexible on what becomes available. A top reliever is the biggest needle mover, so that should be priority A, but a big bat off the bench is a fun luxury to have.
  21. squally1313
    Who is going to give 30 year old Yoan Moncada an automatic starting job?
  22. squally1313
    I don't see any need to give Canario a roster spot unless you run out of money doing other things (and even then, if we suddenly needed an outfield starter, he's probably third on my list of non-Happ/PCA/Tucker/Suzuki options). A Luzardo trade leaves you with a complete, but very injury prone starting 5. Probably two of Assad/Wicks/Brown are your long guys/6th starters, Hodge/Miller/Pearson are locks, three spots for Keegan/Morgan/Little/Merryweather/Palencia/Roberts/almost assuredly a free agent, maybe two. AAA rotation of Wicks (to pick a name from above)/Horton/Birdsell/Poteet/Kilian/whatever is good starting depth. This is basically me trying to decide between 2 relievers and a bench guy or 1 reliever and 2 bench guys. I think you aim high for a Tanner Scott or as close as you can to that. If you get him, then it's Moncada/Canario call it a day. If you have to settle for a lesser reliever, go get two solid bench bats?
  23. squally1313
    We've already made a serious upgrade of the backup catcher role, who typically gets the most ABs of any bench position. We probably won't spend the money this way, but for the $24m we just freed up, you could sign Pederson ($14m/year, 151 wRC last year, projected 125 this year) and Randall Grichuk (151 wRC against LHP last year) and come out even salary wise. It's up to Jed to use that money to give us more production than Cody as a 4th/5th outfielder would have, but it's certainly doable.
  24. squally1313
    Not considering anything else, sure. But you can't keep the $27m guy around as a fallback option for the league minimum dude who outhit him last year in over 550 PAs while being 5ish years younger. If Busch falls apart somehow (and there's not really much to say he should, his worst month was a 97 wRC in August and he put up a 117 wRC in September), then you hand out 1B gloves to Caissie and Ballesteros and go from there. Plus we're probably looking at a league average bat at minimum that can cover first being signed for the bench.
  25. squally1313
    Random thoughts: Another trade where we trade away a guy with a particular skill set that seems ideal for the stadium we're trading him to Saw a tweet that says we're covering $2.5m this year and $2.5m of either the opt out payment or the salary next year. Does that matter for luxury tax purposes? Cody Poteet. I don't understand question and I won't respond to it. In terms of the luxury tax situation, I think where I'm at right now, looking optimistically, is that Jed and Tom know they're going to be over the tax in 2026 (and then likely under in 2027 when all those contracts fall off) and so there has always been a pretty strict directive to stay under this year to reset the count. Now, them going over by a rounding error in 2024 started the clock in the first place and made it marginally more important to stay under this year so that the 2026 penalty would be 30% instead of 50% if they went over in 2025. But, I still don't think it mattered much. With Luzurdo in tow, roughly $32m for two bench bats and a reliever. If that falls apart...things get a little interesting. If that goes through, as mentioned elsewhere, we're basically done with a team that should be comfortably favored to win the division and project in the upper 80s by Christmas.
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