squally1313

Jesus....imagine being 3-2 going into Game 6 against a short rest Josh horsefeathering Tomlin. They would just be drinking the champagne on the bench during the game, right?

The Spiegel tweets about this went on to talk about Contreras at catcher and Schwarber at DH, which would be about as offensive of a lineup as you can put out there. The Contreras part might have been speculation as opposed to insider info though... Fowler Bryant Rizzo Zob Schwarber Contreras Baez Soler Russell

The last word gives this sentence so many possibilities

I wonder if that factored into the decision to have him throw that much yesterday. Eh, if it gets rained out tonight, I assume they'll just make it up Thursday and keep everything else on schedule, so then it's four games in four days that he'd have to deal with. Would delay any potential benefit, and I guess the biggest chance of a blowout is Hendricks vs Tomlin, but not the worst if it gets rained out.

Remember right after the injury when some people were thinking he would miss the start of next year?

That's fair. And I think part of my motivation is definitely flawed in that I'm already thinking about next year...I want Contreras as the definitive starter and I want Jake, in his last year with the Cubs, to know if continues pitching like a 4+ FIP pitcher, he doesn't get his own catcher, and I'd like to see the continued confidence in Heyward given that he's here for a while. But all of that pales in comparison to winning 4 out of the next 6 games. In terms of this decision...could go either way (and probably doesn't really matter one way or the other...baseball being baseball). I'd just love a shutdown start from Jake tomorrow, and I'd love it even more if it was with Willson controlling the game from behind the plate.

I've vacillated on Miggy or Willson catching Jake practically every time Jake's started. One the hand, I see why Miggy is a good guy to have back there for him. He's pretty much the best framer in the league. Jake's a guy with a lot of movement on his stuff and he's had troubles hitting his spots. Miggy knows what he's doing back there and knows Jake and his stuff better than anyone. But, Jake's been unreliable, regardless of whatever we do to try to make him comfortable. You just can't designate a personal catcher to a guy pitching like a #4, because you might need to score some runs if he pitches like we've grown accustomed to seeing. And it's not like Willson is a train wreck or anything back there. He's graded out well with his framing. He's got a cannon for an arm. He's done a good job blocking pitches. He knows what he's doing back there, too. Hell, he caught and called an absolute gem from Kyle over the weekend in the biggest game of our lifetimes. So, I think I'd like to drop the idea of Jake being exclusive to Miggy. Where this game is a little different for me is because of the matchups. We have Schwarber back and can DH him. We have a hole in one of the corner outfield spots, thanks to Heyward being Heyward. So there is a spot there for Willson, if you still want to use him. And Bauer isn't overpowering or anything. He's had problems walking guys. Miggy always takes good ABs, even when he isn't hitting. He's disciplined and has a good eye. He's a decent bet to get on base, or even go deep, off Bauer. It's not like we are stuck using Miggy against Kershaw or something. I just think it's a good opportunity tomorrow to hope the Jake-Miggy connection pays off. I agree with pretty much everything you're saying. I guess, given the options, I'd take the better defensive option at both positions (Heyward by a lot and Contreras by a little) and go with Heyward giving you almost as much as Montero at the plate against a non-elite righty pitcher.

Arrieta's stuff is by far the hardest to handle on the staff, and Montero has done the best job of receiving that stuff. I haven't checked recently, but IIRC every strong outing Jake has had in the 2nd half has been with Montero catching. It's not a guarantee, Jake still has the most influence, but Montero is going to do a much better job of stealing strikes and knowing his stuff best for how to attack hitters. As far as the running game goes, that's definitely something to keep an eye on, but I don't think it's reason to avoid Montero's game calling benefits. Here's Arrieta's recent starts: NLCS/Montero: Reddick stole 2nd and 3rd NLDS/Montero: No attempts Pittsburgh/Montero: No attempts St. Louis/Montero: No attempts, Montero picked Adams off Milwaukee/Contreras: Villar steals 2nd twice Houston/Ross: No attempts San Fran/Contreras: Crawford stole 2nd and 3rd Pittsburgh/Contreras: 2 of 3 SB successful San Diego/Contreras: Jankowski steals 3rd Milwaukee/Contreras: Perez steals 2nd Not only does there not seem to be a huge uptick in attempts, but Contreras doesn't seem to have much of an impact either way. Thank you for doing the dirty work on this. This is where I started looking through Montero starts vs Arrieta starts to find the overlaps, and to be honest you're probably right, outside of an August 23rd outing where Jake went 8 scoreless against San Diego with Willson catching. The issue is that that was his last 'good-Jake' start besides his shutdown outing against the Cardinals, which I think everyone remembers. Other than that he's been pretty ordinary, if not below average. I think he can pitch that way to Contreras or Montero, so I don't see the need to cater to him. And I also think Coghlan (or Soler, or Heyward/Almora) is much better in the outfield than Contreras, and that's worth something too. Edit: Fixed which outfielder/catcher I was talking about in the last line.

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so... I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake? Contreras can play in the outfield, and against a RH starter there isn't much difference between Montero and Coghlan when you consider the defensive alignment needed for either to play. So do you think there's no real difference between Coghlan and Contreras in the outfield? I know tonight it didn't end up mattering at all (from what I can remember). Genuinely asking, not necessarily trying to dispute. And I guess long term picture, since you said 2017, when Schwarber comes back how would you want to play it?

Sometime in 2017, if then. Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake?

We haven't won a postseason series where we were shut out since....3 days ago.

Whatever. We're playing a team where Game horsefeathering 1 was a must win for them. We're fine. Bring on the Fred game start.

We obviously need a good Arrieta start tomorrow more than any of his other starts, but...at what point does this whole 'I need Montero to catch for me' become an issue?

God I would hate him if he wasn't on our team, but I LOVE Contreras shaking his head at Allen's first pitch down 6-0, and then getting brushed back the next pitch.

Alright Allen in...make him work

It would have been nice to at least make Allen pitch in the ninth. I, very weirdly, somehow feel more depressed about Rondon's sudden and immediate fall from shutdown closer to mop-up guy than I do about us being down 1-0. I get that it's statistically tough to win 4 in 6, but I'd put down a lot of money anywhere that has the Cubs as the underdogs going forward.

I kinda wish this was Edwards instead of Rondon.

I get the actual leverage of this situation, but I'd think you'd at least want one of your best relievers warming up right now. (They're probably warming up and I just missed the shot)

Wait did Contreras really stay in to catch and therefore Maddon actually decided Ross was a better option to hit than Soler (albeit with the pinch hitter penalty)? Interesting

I keep saying Zobrist would be the easiest to trade in the offseason and he keeps doing horsefeathers like that.

We need to score here. If my sources are right, the Cubs have never won a postseason series when we've been shut out.

Yeah super easy to just say make contact against a historically great whiff getting reliever. If it were that easy Miller wouldn't be awesome. Miller had a 44.7% K percentage against hitters trying to actually get hits this year. Hoping for Russell to just put the ball in play isn't asking for some miracle.

Miller going in the 8th means at least some fatigue going into tomorrow. Allen coming in for the 8th means we have 2 innings against a much lesser pitcher. Just looking for something here.

Ross vs Soler is whatever. Stats-wise, I know Soler is the better hitter. On the surface, I somewhat agree Soler would have had no chance. Really, Addison needs to make contact in that at-bat. He didn't come close, but he's got to give us a shot to put at least one run across.