squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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i think we're more upset at the rundiff than the loss It's really the best possible scenario around here...that way, there's reason to complain after every run scored against us.
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Oh no guys we might be 25-7
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There are no better words in the english language to describe Kyle Hendricks as 'perpetually out of place-looking'.
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Grandpa granddong incoming.
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I forgot how entertaining these games were when we aren't playing supposedly 'good' teams. Let's wear down the bullpen in game one.
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Lester's strand rate is going to even out eventually, but I'm going to enjoy it in the meantime.
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Eh, it's a baseball board discussing a decision that has merits on both sides. Far better than some of the other things that get argued around here. It's the third inning, whatever.
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Ah, yes, of course. I'm sure that was your best effort. Yeah, this is pretty much what I was getting at. I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but I'm wondering how good you have to be before you start tipping the scale. To go off TT's example... (This website seems pretty helpful: http://turner.faculty.swau.edu/mathematics/math241/materials/playoff/) A 130 win Cubs team going against an 88 win Giants team has a 67.6% chance of winning that series. Just assuming the Cubs have to win 3 of those series (longer series would help the Cubs, but tougher opponents would hurt, so assume it balances out), you'd be looking at a 31% chance of winning it all. Assuming I ran the math right. Edit: To add in some basics of the math, the Cubs would have a 59.6% chance of winning an individual game, based on Cubs winning percentage divided by (Cubs winning percentage + Giants winning percentage). 21.2% chance of sweeping, 25.7% chance of winning in 4, 20.7% chance of winning in 5.
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I guess the only thing you could maybe get away with is saying it would be slightly less of a crapshoot. This is really rough math but is probably wrong, but a true talent level 105 win team has a 64.8% chance of winning every game. I can't figure out the best way to run 5/7 game simulations, but if you have a 64.8% chance of winning each series, your odds of winning the World Series are 27.2% (64.8^3). Conversely, a 90 win team ends up with a 17.1% chance. Of course, that's before you take into account that in both scenarios you're playing teams that are probably better than .500 teams, so drop both numbers a little bit. Fangraphs shows it a lot better, and almost definitely using better math. We're projected to win 102 games, and our odds of winning the World Series are 18.7%. We'll probably avoid the play-in game at this point (96% chance to win the division per FG), but an 8 team playoff decided purely on coin flips gives every team a 12.5% chance. This was a lot of words to come to the same conclusion as everyone else did. Yes, they are still a crapshoot.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-9-16
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
They could become Vogelbombs again... Bombs are so 2014. These are Vogeldongs. -
Rizzo's dong would say otherwise
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What about Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, or Addison Russell? Yes. All 3 of them would surprise me as well. I could maybe see Soler testing positive for some sort of questionable substance, since I'm sure the guy takes a ton of supplements. Arrieta wouldn't shock me, even though I really do think he's clean. So, to be clear.... Would never trust a person again: Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber Wouldn't shock me: Arrieta Would surprise me: Heyward, Fowler, Russell Could see it: Soler I would ask about someone like Strop, but....I think I get the picture.
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I was more like 'oh good, baez is starting today' and then a little disappointed when it was over Russell. I get LaStella is tearing the cover off the ball right now, I just...can't bring myself to care. I'd love to see more of the Baez in center thing once Fowler slows down...maybe give us another option besides Almora and having to move Heyward after this year.
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Does it matter? With Bryant and Zobrist both with the ability to play OF and Soler not hitting, you can start them both every day if you wanted to. FWIW, I think Russell still has more offensive upside than Baez and is on par or better as a defender. In terms of predicting future performance, Russell has probably been the better offensive player this year too. Jav is maybe hitting the ball a little harder, but they have the same K rate and Russell's 14% BB rate looks a lot better than Baez' 4%. Put Baez' BAPIP on Russell's numbers and they'd be pretty amazing. Russell has played 25 games and has 0.8 WAR. Over 150, that's 4.8. Let's not mess with what's working.
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Agreed. Talking about the Cubs as a 'clean cut' bunch is the same type of worthless crap we'd mock if it came from people in St. Louis. Yeah but c'mon, that's apples to oranges. If Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber tests positive for PED's, I'll probably never trust a person ever again. What about Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, or Addison Russell?
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+1 and <3 Agreed. Talking about the Cubs as a 'clean cut' bunch is the same type of worthless crap we'd mock if it came from people in St. Louis.
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What's wrong with being drunk on a Thursday.
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Lol at that half assed celebration between werth and harper
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Wood might do Rondon a solid here
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Wait about 7 minutes.
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Russell 'n Zo
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Hahahahahahahaha
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Yeah because he warmed during the top of the 8th suppose i could see a wood/rondon combo inning but you'd think he'd be at least up at that point He probably sat down during that 13 minute review.
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That's why Rondon isn't coming in
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Definitely want Taylor over Murphy in that situation.