squally1313

Aren't we all?

[tweet] [/tweet] Flaherty has been slightly better against lefties than righties since last year, so not sure why Descalso over Bote. But other than that, no Almora = good line up.

I don't really care why offense is down? This whole thing started because you said it'd be nice to have Burnitz's slash line in left field. You were then told that Schwarber basically already gives you that, with better defense. And then you were told that a roughly .800 OPS is more valuable in 2019, when the average OPS is .740ish, than literally every year Burnitz played, where the average OPS was higher. So...Schwarber > Burnitz, agreed? First, any discussion about Schwarber and Burnitz should never be about defense because both should be described as "adequate" defensively. As I posted before, Schwarber wouldn't be removed so often for defensive reasons if he was "above average" as many of you claim. Defensive statistics are questionable at best (i.e. Schwarber could be rated better than Griffey JR. according to some stats. You don't really believe Schwarber > Griffey JR. defensively, do you?) Secondly, Burnitz had an avg. .826 OPS and 138 runs scored over a 14 year career, while Schwarber's avg. numbers are .803 with 86 runs scored in his career. Also, Schwarber's numbers include more platooning against lefties. Obviously there are many players I would have in LF over Burnitz or Schwarber, but since Burnitz' name was brought up in jest, I would pick Burnitz over Schwarber. Regarding defense: Schwarber is at a 0.9 defensive rating for his career per FG. Burnitz, for his career, is at -44.3. We can split hairs on Schwarber's defense ("is he adequate or acceptable???") even more if you want, but dismissing it outright is wrong. Modern baseball teams, and the Cubs in general, put a premium on defense, and have usually had at least one of Almora or Heyward sitting on the bench to come in late. This also ignores the fact in those situations Schwarber is still playing 7ish innings of defense, and as discussed above, doing it better than Jeremy Burnitz. Burnitz's career high in runs scored (which, nice stat in general) is 104, so...yeah. They have stats that compare offensive output to the rest of the league. Burnitz for his career has a 110 wRC+. Schwarber has a 112. Again, that solely values hitting, see above for defense. FG also has Schwarber as the better baserunner. What am I doing with my life.

Yeah, they'll save it for a home game to really rile up the red hat crowd down there.

And...what does that have to do with anything? Are we really just at juiced ball vs juiced players after all of this? Who cares? Offense is down compared to where it was 20 years ago. By every meaningful measure. Juiced ball means more HRs. We are at record-setting era with the number of HRs. Maybe offense is down because everybody is swinging for the fences because the ball is juiced and you're rewarded handsomely for hitting .230 with 25 HRs and striking out 160 times a year. I don't really care why offense is down? This whole thing started because you said it'd be nice to have Burnitz's slash line in left field. You were then told that Schwarber basically already gives you that, with better defense. And then you were told that a roughly .800 OPS is more valuable in 2019, when the average OPS is .740ish, than literally every year Burnitz played, where the average OPS was higher. So...Schwarber > Burnitz, agreed?

You want another rainout? You know what I mean. Fine, I'll settle for it being really cool if it could just be tomorrow.

It'd be really cool if they wanted to move one of these games up to today.

That’s ironic since he spent three years grounding out to second. This is just complete perception. When Heyward was with the Braves and Cards I always thought he was most dangerous when he was pitched away and sending balls to center and left center. It felt like that never happened his 1st 3 yrs here Yep...even though by October Arrieta wasn't in god mode anymore, I remember being just in awe of this home run (2:27 mark if it doesn't start right). Bonus: this was the game the Cubs went dong crazy, so stick around and watch the whole thing. [bbvideo=560,315] [/bbvideo]

What are you even arguing at this point? Semantics? That line Tim referenced is better today than it was in Burnitz' era because the average production today is worse than the average production then. The HR rate is skyrocketing now as compared to the steroid era when we know players were using steroids to hit HRs which sounds to me like the ball is juiced now. And...what does that have to do with anything? Are we really just at juiced ball vs juiced players after all of this? Who cares? Offense is down compared to where it was 20 years ago. By every meaningful measure.

Current OPS league wide is .742 (245/321/421), which is 18th in the last 30 years. Jeremy Burnitz played over 100 games every year from 1997 to 2006. All 10 of those years had a higher league wide OPS than 2019. 2000 was the highest, at .782. Of course steroids had nothing to do with the statistics in those years. Look at the numbers of HRs hit 6105 in 2017, 5610 in 2016, and 5585 in 2018 while the ball is juiced. The other top years 5693 in 2000, 5528 in 1999, and 5458 in 2001 the players were juiced more than the balls. What are you even arguing at this point? Semantics? That line Tim referenced is better today than it was in Burnitz' era because the average production today is worse than the average production then.

The guy who has 7 home runs in 90 PAs after 10 in the previous 947? Sure? I don't think it's a hot take to say you'd rather have LaStella's April over Descalso's, but I remain pretty confident that we'll have the better player going forward. I looked at LaStella's stats a few days ago, and he's doing this with a pretty absurdly low BABIP, if I remember correctly. .188, so yeah. I mean, obviously you discount the HR/FB rate given his career/stature, but everything is really impressive, given the sample size...walk rate is double the K rate, hard hit rate is triple the soft hit rate, etc. But...90 PAs. We know what he is. Good for him/the Angels...god knows they need it. But I'll take Descalso.

Please somebody, anybody, explain why Almora should be getting more PAs than Bote right now. Why does Zagunis exist if he isn't in this game.

Fine - How about Schwarber's actual 2018 production of .238/.356/.467? Considering most of Burnitz's best seasons came during the juiced ball era, that Schwarber line from last year is more than comparable. He's also rating as an above average defender again, no matter how many times you try to claim that he's best served as a DH. Oh, but I'm sorry. Go ahead and keep banging your head against this one. In case you haven't noticed we're in the juiciest of the juice ball eras right now. Current OPS league wide is .742 (245/321/421), which is 18th in the last 30 years. Jeremy Burnitz played over 100 games every year from 1997 to 2006. All 10 of those years had a higher league wide OPS than 2019. 2000 was the highest, at .782.

Some really cool clips in here.

Based on your posts the last few weeks, that doesn't really narrow it down between the two.

I'm not saying it'd be nice if Happ 'took care' of this problem...but I'm not not saying it.

The guy who has 7 home runs in 90 PAs after 10 in the previous 947? Sure? I don't think it's a hot take to say you'd rather have LaStella's April over Descalso's, but I remain pretty confident that we'll have the better player going forward.

There is a difference between actual production and projections. I don't hate Schwarber, I just think that the Cubs would be a better team if they had traded him a couple of years ago when his trade value was high and we probably could have received some young pitching. I admire his work ethic and his majestic HRs, but he is still a DH/platoon OF. Fine - How about Schwarber's actual 2018 production of .238/.356/.467? Considering most of Burnitz's best seasons came during the juiced ball era, that Schwarber line from last year is more than comparable. He's also rating as an above average defender again, no matter how many times you try to claim that he's best served as a DH. Oh, but I'm sorry. Go ahead and keep banging your head against this one. Look, B2B has this figured out. Schwarber should have been traded at some undefined time for some undefined players (maybe even to two undefined teams, for two undefined players/groups of players?), and because of that obviously successful trade, the team that has won the most games in baseball since 2015 would be even better. After all, based on the stories we're actually aware of, Andrew Miller was supposedly on the table for Schwarber, and we passed on Miller, which was clearly a huge mistake as he only gave up a game 7 home run to 74 year old David Ross in a game we won by 1. And then put up 2.7 total fWAR in the next two years for $18m, compared to Schwarber's 4.8 fWAR for $1.1m. And then became a free agent, whereas we have Schwarber for two more years. When you look at the facts, it's obvious.

Staying up for that was thisclose to a really dumb mistake. But worth it for Schwarber, that Javy turn, and Cishek channeling Strop-y with the double fist pump on a perfect pitch for the win. Pretty awesome.

I just want to go to bed

The possibility of Bote turning into a mostly full time player (with at least acceptable defense at third and short) really opens up the possibilities in the lineup to hide weaknesses/struggling players.

I cant believe that info is not easily accessible. The Cubs broadcast has that run expectancy graphic they show so the info is out there. Oh I'm sure the play index stuff would have made this a ton easier, but I don't have nearly that kind of expertise. When I saw it was only 41 doubles/22 games, figured it wouldn't be that bad. BaseballRef PBP, search for 'double' and see what comes up. I was mostly just pissed because at the beginning I thought for sure I was proving him wrong.

It was that or rolling forward excel files for the 8th straight hour. By this point I was basically just following gamecast...I've spent 20 minutes in worse ways.

By what measure is this guy our best option.

Game 1: No leadoff doubles Game 2: No leadoff doubles Game 3: Descalso doubles to lead off the 6th, Heyward singles to bring him in (1/1) Game 4: No leadoff doubles Game 5: No doubles Game 6: No doubles Game 7: No leadoff doubles Game 8: No leadoff doubles Game 9: No doubles Game 10: Descalso leadoff double, walk, botched FC, scores on GIDP (2/2) Game 11: No leadoff doubles Game 12: No leadoff doubles Game 13: No doubles Game 14: No leadoff doubles Game 15: No leadoff doubles Game 16: Bote leadoff double, Almora popout (of course), Q K, Descalso RBI single (3/3), Descalso leadoff double, KB 9-5 DP (3/4) Game 17: No leadoff doubles Game 18: Contreras ground rule double, FO, walk, pop out, K (3/5) Game 19: KB ground rule double, FO, GO, walk, K (3/6) Game 20: Rizzo double, FO, line out, GO (3/7), Baez leadoff double, Bote single (4/8, though technically Baez ended up at third but I'm still counting it because horsefeathers this at this point) Game 21: No leadoff doubles Game 22: No leadoff doubles So 4/8. Is everyone happy now. God this might be my low point here.