squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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FG has the Brewers projected for 84 wins and the Reds for 82 wins, so if there's a place to bet money on the division winner ending up with less than 89 wins, I would like to bet on it. I understand the basics of just projecting out their current win/loss performance, and certainly understand that only one of them has to do it. But. - They've been outscored by a combined 22 runs this year (Cubs are +26). - They are a collective 36-23 in one run games (Brewers being especially egregious at 16-7). - Woodruff hasn't even made a rehab start yet, and already had to pause his rehab once. Far from a sure thing. - Elly and McClain are certainly fun and worrisome, but they are currently both BABIPing over .400, with De La Cruz's xwOBA 78 points lower than his current xwOBA. Andrew Abbott is fine, but he certainly can't pitch every day, Hunter Greene is delayed getting back, and the rest of their (non-Alexis Diaz) pitching is garbage. Now, the Cubs are a .500 team that hasn't gotten the results of a .500 team. They've dug themselves plenty big of a hole. But the Marlins went 53-39 with a -5 RD, the DBacks went 52-39 with a +26 RD. It's unlikely, but I think that pace puts you right there.
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Get Arenado by offering to take the Contreras contract off their hands.
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Sure, that was more based on 'sell all the good players for top 20 in the organization' comments from earlier. Though to be fair, I think it's a weird stretch with how covid delayed things. This might be outdated, but I count 9 prospects on the FG Top 100 list that have their ages listed as 25+. Wesneski being one of them, if you wanted a specific example.
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I mean, he's put up a .970 OPS since he got sent back down. Jared Young had a .733 OPS last year in AAA and had an .836 this year going into June. He had an all time month and he got rewarded for it, and I assume it will be short lived. I think most people here would agree that if you were looking at those two prospects, Mervis was, again, the better call up of the two.
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Honestly, what do you guys think is out there in terms of the rest of the league. Hoerner is 5th in 2B fWAR since the beginning of last year (6.1 fWAR in 865 PAs, the leader is Semien, 7.5 in 270 more PAs). Hoerner is a first round pick who hit at every level, and outside of a rough covid year has been a consistent producer. He's 26 years old and we have him for the next 3 years at $35m total. If that is not a 'core contributor' then there's really no pleasing you.
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Just go get another one, how hard can it be? (Pulls up list of potential 1B free agents) 1. Joey Votto, 41 years old 2. Josh Bell, if he opts out of his player option, which I can't see happening on account of his current -0.2 fWAR 3. Max Muncy, if the Dodgers don't pick up his paltry $10m option, which is only really an option if he continues to hit .195 like he is right now 4. Rhys Hoskins, had ACL surgery in March, and so you have a three year stretch of 2.0 fWAR, 2.2 fWAR, and a ruined knee. Will be 31 next year. 5. Joey Gallo, hitting .190 this year with a 40% K rate, 0.7 fWAR 6. Brandon Belt, 0.8 fWAR on a .433 BABIP. Will be 36 next year. 7. Giovanny Urshela, do I really have to keep this list going, also he has a broken pelvis (and 0.4 fWAR in 228 PAs) Do you know what this board would be doing if like, the horsefeathering Blue Jays or whatever had a dude who raked in AA/AAA last year, has raked in AAA this year, and had a rough 100 PAs in his debut? They would be trying to trade Stroman for him so they could pencil him in as the 2024 MLB first baseman after another mini rebuild.
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It's never black and white. More information is better than less information. If he comes back and shits the bed again in a bigger sample, then you probably wish him well and hope he's not the next Rizzo. If he puts up a .900 OPS, you roll the dice that he's not the next Hoffpauir. The most likely scenarios fall somewhere in the middle, and make it even less 'settled', but what we're doing now is essentially wasting ABs on guys with no future and also no present.
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Since Mervis got sent back down in the middle of June, he's basically just gone back to being the same AAA killer he was before.....293/.408/.561. It's totally possible he's just an all time AAAA guy. But given that we know our first base production outside of him is going to top out at mediocre, I think it's an easy decision to bring him back up and give him the second half to sink or swim.
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I mean, Swanson is 6th in offensive fWAR since the beginning of last year. You can make the argument that a guy putting up a .771 OPS is not a great player, but that's more a statistics/advanced metrics argument. If we're going off WAR, he's a star. You've got Hoerner at 37th, Happ at 51st, Bellinger at 82nd. Having four dudes in the top 90 in a thirty team league is good. On the pitching side, Steele is 25th since last year, Stroman is 38th, but obviously both are performing much better this year (7th and 10th). I think this is an above average team that isn't far off from being a Good team, and seems like most people want to blow it up because they don't see a path to being a Great team. Which, maybe? But starting over I think just puts us back in this same spot in like 2 years.
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Yeah it's really easy to say that 'anyone can play first base' until you make the cheap free agent signing to do that, you make the even cheaper signing to hedge against that, and then you also have the dude who raked all year (and into this year in AAA) as a further hedge, and then that all adds up it being the end of June and you've OPSed .633 from that spot. Give me consistency, and very much give me consistency with 50 dongs.
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He's always going to run hot and cold on the BABIP train given his complete lack of power. The 2 walks in his last 31 PAs is probably more concerning.
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Just go get CJ Cron for a bag of balls, give Mancini a phantom injury, let Cron start for a month and see if he find his way to the .336 xwOBA he's got so far this year (league average for first basemen is .329). If so, cool, if not and we're in it, go see who else is out there, if he sucks and we also suck, Mervis gets a two month audition.
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Whole lotto suckin’ (Blackhawks 2023 offseason)
squally1313 replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
If you were playing this out on a video game, you could retain Hall's salary (or as much of it as the rules allow) and flip him for future assets. As it plays out in real life, you probably hold onto him to give Bedard someone to play with, and hope he maintains a high enough level to flip him at some point in the 24/25 season. -
Yeah obviously they are going for simplicity in the presentation but probably need to include some sort of clarification on what you're talking about, and then today in the bottom right corner my buddy put who played for the team but didn't make the HOF for that team and so it didn't count.
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Well we've tripled our playoff odds in two weeks, from 7.1% to 21.9% as of today. Brewers are still the clear favorite, although a lot of that is based on projections that just haven't really played out so far this year....Burnes has been simply above average, not dominant, even before he got blown up in his last start. Peralta has a well earned 4.60 ERA so far this year, Zips has them for 3.5 more fWAR this season and they've combined for 1.6 so far this year, 72 games in. Who knows with Woodruff, and then you're left with Teheran (5.86 K/9), Houser (5.49 K/9), Wade Miley (5.4 K/9) and Colin Rea (Colin Rea). Yelich and William Contreras are the only hitters over 100 wRC. Basically all these teams suck, might as well give it a shot.
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Yeah the biggest advantage the Reds have over us right now is the 3.5 game lead already baked into the standings.
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Four games made up on the Brewers in the last 10 is pretty encouraging. The Reds offense looks like it has some teeth, but man that pitching is dire, especially with Greene on the IL. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=6,d
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The Cubs have a top 10 farm system and magnitudes more revenue that they can theoretically use to supplement the roster. That's going to trump whatever we've seen this year. They're still at the top of my list because they should always be at the top of this list.
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Whole lotto suckin’ (Blackhawks 2023 offseason)
squally1313 replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
The kid is 17 years old, his entire childhood was framed around the Hawks being the best and most exciting team in hockey. And he's still way too young to understand all of the garbage parts of it. (And he's a teenager raised as a once in a generation prodigy in a clearly toxic hockey culture with people fawning over him and enabling him at every turn, I certainly wouldn't bet on him being a 'good dude') -
So horsefeathering gross
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-31-23
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I know it's a bit of cherry picking to look at his season numbers immediately after a 3 hit, HR night, but man...all of a sudden he's almost improving on his high A numbers as a 21 YO in AA. Granted, still has a way to go to get back to his single A numbers, but then again those numbers would make him the best player in baseball, so probably not the most realistic path to success. But comparing AA to high A, seems like the walk rate is better, the K rate is better, his HR rate is slightly above where it was last year, SBs are similar. 2Bs and 3Bs are down, but hard to maintain the 15 triples/year pace he was on in high A. Just really encouraging looking ahead to 2024. -
Well that just seems very unlucky and mathematically should turn around soon given the overall performance of the offense this year. Will it be too late? Probably! But hard to get like, specifically angry at anyone in particular.
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Patrick Wisdom from 5/31/2021-6/8/21 hit 379/438/1138 (yes, that's slugging), with 7 home runs in 32 PAs. Morel from 5/15/23-5/23/23 hit 357/419/1071 with 6 home runs in 31 PAs. Patrick Wisdom the rest of 2021 hit 211/288/450. Morel in 2022 hit 235/308/433. Morel is probably a little better than Wisdom, but otherwise either good jokes or relax.
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Checking in here to apologize for missing a game thread start. And then to basically say that between getting a new computer at work and the URL hopping back and forth, this site has somehow ended up on the blocked list for my company. Which is where I am for basically 99% of my NSBB consumption. Which sucks. So might have to get used to coming here through my phone more. more relevant: More Morel is good, but he is not a lead off hitter. Just put Swanson there and be done with it. Ross is getting very tiring.
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Whole lotto suckin’ (Blackhawks 2023 offseason)
squally1313 replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
I don’t understand this at all. This roster is, somewhat by design, completely devoid of talent from top to bottom. Look at Edmonton with McDavid up to (and maybe including) this year. This isn’t the NBA, you need depth.
