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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    People who hated the manager said his last name a lot?
  2. squally1313
    I would have pulled him before the sixth for the heat, for September, etc. But ‘gassed’ is kinda just how Steele looks all the time. side note: this is fun as hell, maybe we can keep trying and deal with 2025 later?
  3. squally1313
    Yeah I can’t get behind the whole ‘well if they make it, who cares, they’re going to lose’ argument. They probably will! Guess who else probably will? Every other team in baseball. Any team going into playoffs as better than like…4/1 odds is a bad bet. and that’s totally ignoring all the outcomes in between. Apparently no one had fun watching the 2015 season.
  4. squally1313
    I think he absolutely should have a analytical understanding of how the team is going to perform the rest of the year, with some standard deviation bars built in, etc. But I think being 4 games back and being 7 games back come Sunday night changes the math on 'can we make the playoffs' quite a bit. Ohtani is projected to be worth 3 wins the rest of the year, as an extreme example.
  5. squally1313
    If you need any help....
  6. squally1313
    Tauchman has basically been Carlos Santana against righties, which is great. That hypothetical trade lets you move Belli back to CF (where he's very valuable!) at least against lefties, if not just more in general. Obviously moot now, the bigger point being that there are dudes out there who shore up the bottom half of the major league roster in exchange for like, the 19th most valuable outfielder in our system.
  7. squally1313
    I didn't say that exact trade, though it would certainly improve the team if it hastened the departure of Mancini. But the chance to replace Mancini, Mastro, Barnhart (and probably Wisdom) with 100ish wRC hitters at the expense of like...a few Chase Shrumpfs? Yes please.
  8. squally1313
    The Brewers just got Carlos Santana, a league average first baseman, for an 18 year old who wasn't on the Brewers Top 40 list back in December and has had 52 below average ABs in the Complex League since then. Go do those trades.
  9. squally1313
    That's mostly fair. I don't think the potential benefit to 2025 and beyond is worth throwing away the admittedly mediocre chance they have this season. To be clear, I'm definitely like, running a present value of future potential benefits when making that determination. Give me somewhat good baseball now over hopefully very good baseball in the future. But also worth talking about the current state of the system, the plethora of prospects, and the crunch coming. You're not going to find many teams this offseason willing to trade impact MLB talent for minor leaguers. There's only like, 6 of them now. That might change come midseason, but it's not a guarantee, serious roster decisions will have to be made by then, and also that means unless you win free agency in a big way, you're probably looking at a team that's going to end up exactly where we are now.
  10. squally1313
    I don't want to reduce your whole post to this line, but you can't say this and then continue advocating for trading two of our four best players and giving up on the next two months of baseball. The current baseball team is 12-6 in their last 18 games. Not sure what else you're looking for. Go do things to make them more likely to win now, not in 2025.
  11. squally1313
    Two points here: 1. Repeating myself from another thread, but if you give up on the year and trade Bellinger as a .500 team, there's no way it's a good look for us when it comes to trying to sign him in the offseason, as obviously signing him by itself just brings you back to a .500 team. 2. Especially hard pass on being sellers if you can't meaningfully improve the 2024 team. I'll take the 15-20% shot this year over someone's 5th best prospect that might help us in 2025.
  12. squally1313
    Money is obviously the main determining factor, but it's not the end all be all, and the Cubs as a .500 team giving up and trading their best offensive player is a pretty big negative in terms of their sales pitch to Bellinger in the offseason. This isn't a 'these kids make too many damn money' argument....far from it, but it's worth pointing out that Bellinger, due to his early career success, has already made $58m in his career. This isn't a Contreras situation ($22m career going into the last offseason), there's probably some personal preference that's going to impact this decision.
  13. squally1313
    I just don't think the future potential upside outweighs the value of giving the rest of this year a shot. We make these trades, we just add to this glut of 40-50 FV prospects, which isn't a bad thing in and of itself, but we aren't going to add impact talent. And then you're going to get, what, 6 weeks of play in our system to make some determinations before you need to make some serious roster decisions? And if we're in late July and there are only like, 6 teams in sell mode, how many are you going to find in the offseason willing to trade real MLB talent for a bunch of minor league potential?
  14. squally1313
    You and I both know that it's unreasonable. Besides the fact that if they're willing to drop that much money (they aren't) and are able to beat out all the other teams that want top 5 FAs (they won't)....just skip the 31 year old third baseman, etc and go sign the best player on the planet.
  15. squally1313
    Just realized in this scenario we're writing off Bellinger too, so there goes most of the Chapman upgrade value.
  16. squally1313
    The first one replaces Stroman, at best. Is there any other option who has managed to post 4.00 ERA (or FIP) in AAA yet? There's no one out there that's going to require PCA, so that's a moot point. So it's basically just, win the Chapman sweepstakes and hope Mervis hits (which is true in either scenario) because the FA options are dire.
  17. squally1313
    Ah, yes, just sign like, three of the top 5 free agents. Got it, thanks
  18. squally1313
    Like the people in camp 'this team isn't good enough' are basically saying a team that has played to a +48 RD in 101 games is just not worthy of getting a shot, and are only going to be satisfied with some juggernaut. And the argument essentially comes down to: 1. Take a slightly above .500 team 2. Make it worse to get prospects 3. ?????????? 4. Be a 95 win team, immediately apparently, because god forbid we're an 82 win team this time next year, then we'll have to go back to step one.
  19. squally1313
    Just throwing it out there that we could also like, try and win baseball games these next two months rather than making the team worse and symbolically waving the white flag in the hopes of getting a package similar to what the Sox just got (a fringe-y at best defensive catcher with a .332 slugging percentage and an almost 24 year old pitcher who has pitched all of 30 innings this year, most of them in AA, and gotten rocked in all of them). Don't think I'll be losing much sleep over not getting guys like that.
  20. squally1313
    The peripherals have dipped, but he had a .235 BABIP in that stretch leading up to London and it's been .375 since. It's somewhere in the middle, right where he's always been. If you don't think we need Marcus Stroman, but still want to win....that's misguided.
  21. squally1313
    God I hate Mikolas. This is probably the Cardinals version of the World Series, but then again the last two games were the Sox version of the same. Just go take three of four, Brewers are down in Atlanta and the Reds are at the Dodgers (and also suck), so could be real interesting coming out of Sunday.
  22. squally1313
    I kinda....wouldn't mind a half assed approach? Trade some dudes in the 11-20 range, hold on to your prized assets, basically let it ride with this squad and a couple competent reinforcements to shore up glaring weak spots. Give yourself a couple months to figure out the Bellinger approach, etc. There's not enough talent out there to improve a .500 team to an 87 win team at this point in the season. The team just has to play slightly better (not out of the question!) and hope for some pythag luck.
  23. squally1313
    Hi guys. We should Buy.
  24. squally1313
    Lol that's incredible that I haven't even noticed. Everyone who hasn't been here 20 years took one look at the Politics thread and just nope'd out so quickly. Don't blame them in the least.
  25. squally1313
    Was mostly tongue in cheek. Had planned to come up with a second trade where pick up Javy's contract, but couldn't find anyone from the Tigers roster that would have made the joke land.
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