squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Hard pass.
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This may not be how pitching works, but given Theo's comments about not ruling out Chatwood/Quintana playing limited roles down the stretch, it could be beneficial to see if Lester or Mills can generate a little more success if they're told they're only getting one or two times through the line up. I know it runs counter to trying to save the bullpen where we're at now, but our playoff strategy is basically getting good/long starts from Yu and Kyle, and then patching together the rest of the games, and potentially carrying Q/Chatwood/Adbert means there wouldn't be any need for Lester or Mills to see a lot of hitters.
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Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot? Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week. its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 13-3 start to finish 35-25. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport. And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.
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Do we have an official explanation as to where JD is? Twitter search isn’t giving me anything.
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David Ross might not be very good at this.
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9/8 Cubs (Mills) vs Reds (Mahle) 7:15 MSN
squally1313 replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Something like Schwarber leading off the 7th with a walk and getting replaced by Hamilton at first sounds pretty great to me. -
We have the best outfield in baseball so far this year, Billy Hamilton wasn't signed to start. He comes in for Schwarber if we ever decide to take an early lead in games again, and he steals bases when you need him to later on. He's terrible at everything else.
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i hope they win like 40 games in this fake season so next season kicks them in the dick when it isn't so easy Pretty sure they’re still playing in the AL Central last year.
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Team wide we're at a 102 wRC, 3rd best walk rate, 4th worst K rate, 6th in total offensive fWAR, though some of that is helped by baserunning (5th) and defense (9th). Happ and Heyward are over 150 wRC, Rizzo/Schwarber/Kipnis/Bote are between 105 and 121. Contreras/Baez/Bryant/Hoerner have been very bad, Almora historically bad but he's gone so whatever.
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Yeah I have to believe this is true. 3-1 in particular, we usually take. But when we swing we hit a ton of lazy pops. Because I'm bored... 2-0 count: 13/31, 3 doubles, 4 HRs, .419/.438/.903, 221 total PAs 2-1 count: 17/51, 5 doubles, 2 HRs, .333/.321/.549, 309 total PAs 3-1 count: 9/32, 2 doubles, 2 HRs, .281/.680/.531, 144 total PAs Don't think there's a way to compare all the teams in these, but picking the Dodgers to compare (Cardinals have too few games, rest of the division sucks at hitting): 2-0 count: 8/38, 1 double, 1 HR, .216/.211/.324, 222 total PAs 2-1 count: 26/74, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HRs, .351/.368/.730, 307 total PAs 3-1 count: 17/63, 4 doubles, 4 HRs, .346/.753/.654, 135 total PAs Based on this very small sample, yeah, take a lot in these counts, and the quality of contact for 2-1 and 3-1 is much worse (2-0 is weirdly much better).
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These moves, assuming all the main guys are healthy (and not sub replacement players, looking at you Javy), should give us a lineup that wrecks lefties. You could run out something like this: KB Souza Contreras Martinez Baez Rizzo Happ Bote Hoerner Not going to help you much against, say, Gray/Bauer/Castillo in a three game series. But there's Kershaw/Urias, Fried in Atlanta.
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This can be in reference to anything you want, up to and including this entire board since about 4 days after we won the world series.
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Kuhl is due for some serious BABIP/LOB/everything regression, hopefully it's tonight. I'd probably still take Hoerner's glove (and development) over Martinez against RHP, but I get you want to try out your new toy.
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I'm going to assume you just posted this to the wrong thread, but you thinking they made him go hang out in South Bend until he was healthy is pretty funny.
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Will be very interesting to see if baseball follows. Somehow the only quotes I was seeing from the Brewers was from Hader, which....could you not find literally anyone else associated with the team?
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8/26/20 Cubs (BDJ) @ Tigers (Fulmur) 6:10 CST
squally1313 replied to weis21's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Wrigley is basically as close to Kenosha as the Brewers are. Boycott the game, see how the Ricketts react. -
He’s really only been a real elite hitter in 2018 until September and then a month or two last year. Saw some tweet the other day about it. He’s been shockingly average from a wRC+ standpoint outside of that period. There's a pretty big gap between elite and what he's doing this year though. How many people, with how flawed he is as a hitter, thought he'd be an elite hitter? We had hope, sure. But 2018 sure seemed like a career year at the time. In 2017, he had 4 of 6 months with a OPS+ of 116 or higher. 2018 he was above 100 each month, and above 140 in 4 of the 6 months. 2019 he was above 100 for 4 of 5 months (4 PA in Sept) and had 3 of 5 over 110. His 83 OPS+ right now would be his worst monthly split since April 2017. We don't necessarily need runner-up MVP Javy (though it certainly would be nice), but we do need a 100-110 OPS+ Javy. Javy provides value in a lot of ways, and I think you're right in that few around here expected him to maintain an elite offensive profile. Doesn't make him a worthless player by any means, but taking him out of the 3 spot in the line up shouldn't be controversial given where he's at right now. And yes, I know he's hit the ball really hard the last couple games. Show it for a week and then you can reevaluate.
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Picking nits, but Pujols first season with the Angels was the only one where he put up over 3 fWAR, which was 2012. Since then he's had one other season above 2 fWAR, and in the last 5 years before 2020, he was worth a combined -0.2 fWAR. Disaster of a contract.
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Really enjoyed reading that, thanks for the update. Anecdotally, the hardest thing to practice away from an actual course is the short game. I went to the lake shore driving range and put like, 10 straight lob wedges within an 8 foot circle 50 yards out and felt on top of the world. And then the next round I played was an endless march back and forth over the green as I skulled one wedge after another. You just really need to get used to how actual grass/ground reacts to your high loft clubs. What also helped was just acknowledging that I wasn't Phil Mickelson, and getting comfortable just quarter swinging a PW and letting it roll to two putt territory.
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It's the clear disdain of college students coupled with the 'play a game for me to watch (for free!)' that really gets me.
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Ian Happ has been the best offensive player on our team since he was called back up. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2020&month=1000&season1=2019&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-07-25&enddate=2020-08-19
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Well, now that the bullpen doesn't look like a total dumpster fire, just slot Quintana into Chatwood's spot and hope Chatwood can provide a live pen arm if he gets healthy this year.
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Honestly, if you (or anyone for that matter) need extra people to split them with I may be interested until my number is called. I live 7 blocks away from Wrigley but I probably wouldn't go all the time even if I could so actually having a limited number of tickets at a lower cost makes sense for me until I can get my own. Might take you up on that too (or at least, I've thought about opening it up to the board). I'm at the age where my friends are having kids (as did we) and moving out of the city...last year I had to kinda scramble to find people to pick up 5 games just to get our number down to 20. Who knows what's going to happen next year though...
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Yeah there’s more evidence Javy isn’t all that elite of a hitter than he is, at this point. Which makes sense with his profile. It also looks like we are continuing the wildly successful practice over the last ~3 years of letting guys just play through injuries with this KB wrist/hand/elbow/finger thing. At the least I hope he’s sitting going in to or coming out of the off days the next two Thursday's. I like that lineup with where we are at and what we know. Switch Bote and Heyward at the bottom now that I think about it more....makes it too easy for a tough lefty late in the game otherwise, even though Heyward profiles better as that 'second leadoff'. But yeah, Baez going forward seems to be absolutely still a first division starter, but someone you want to wait until his hot streaks come up before handing him a top spot in the line up.
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Just saw a super fun stat that Baez over his last like 450 PAs (since his heel injury last May) has been like a 90 wRC hitter. Between that and Kris Bryant's Nagging Injury, I present to you the new lineup (CC David Ross). Rizzo Happ Contreras Schwarber KB Kipnis Baez Bote Heyward