squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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He's an improved hitter over last year by a vast majority of the advanced metrics and every other team in baseball is more than capable of seeing that. Teams don't trade for players because they are riding hot BABIP streaks.
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I’m not going to get into some no win argument about the merits of expected stats, but if we’re using those as gospel then we should also be trying to dump Cody bellinger (who i was told repeatedly to ignore xwOBA) immediately. Can’t have it both ways.
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I don't think Chris Morel is a bad hitter. I don't think he's capable of playing third base, I don't think his overall skill set is enough to warrant any discussion where he takes second base from Nico, and I don't think his bat is elite enough, even if the luck turns, to hand him the DH job, especially when you've got Suzuki already here and producing the numbers Morel is thus far only expected to have. I think there is a chance that other teams might think he's playable at second base (or would be willing to try him in a corner outfield role), that there's a chance they think his bat is better than their options at DH, or that he's still just more reps away from improving as a fielder, and they're a couple years away and he's got tons of team control. As an example, the Red Sox have a team .701 OPS from the DH spot, a .559 OPS from 2B (-1.6 fWAR combined), and a 52% chance to make the playoffs. If other teams value him higher than we do, we should consider trading him, even if he's still a pretty safe bet to be among the 13 best offensive players in the org on opening day next year.
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Your second sentence and fourth sentence are kinda in conflict though, right? If he's replacement level, then we aren't getting anything for him. If he's worth giving up something good for, he's going to be hard to replace. There are 53 starters over 90 innings this year with an ERA below that 3.92 number. Taillon is 19th. As boring as he may be as a pitcher, they don't fall off trees.
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I go back and forth in terms of what I actually believe and eventually just appeal to authority. How many thousands of hours were spent by smart people getting paid to do this to create the best possible all encompassing stat. Also worth pointing out (maybe) that the Cubs are 17th in defensive value added since last year and 11th in offensive value added (a little driven by good baserunning). Nico and Dansby are elite. The rest are a smattering from above average (Happ) to bad (Morel).
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Are you saying that a run created is more valuable than a run prevented?
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Why
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I don't know. In the same way you aren't going to fool other teams by pointing to Taillon's ERA (and covering up his FIP/xFIP), other teams are absolutely aware that Morel is underperforming his xwOBA by 51 points, that he's cut his K rate from 31% last year to 23.5% this year, his walk rate went from 8.5% to 10.9%, etc. Another year of control is gone and third base is probably written off, but there's a quality bat there that hasn't failed yet at second base.
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But how do you judge good players? By height?
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So are you making the argument that there's no point in building an elite team, just need to get into the playoffs and then it becomes more or less a crapshoot?
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Can you expand on this please
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I generally try to avoid just throwing out random trades, but feel like the only defensive position left for Morel to maybe fake it at is second base. The Red Sox have gotten pretty comfortably the worst production at second base in baseball this year. They moved David Hamilton over to second about a month ago and he's put up a 105 wRC this year which is admirable, so it's righting the ship a little bit, but he can't hit lefties at all and also doesn't really have much of a pedigree. How close does Morel come to getting us Teel? I'd be willing to give up more if needed. They've got Connor Wong and his 125 wRC through 2028 to fill the catching spot. In the short run we get by with Mastro and Wisdom, in the middle run we look at Murray, Shaw, Triantos. By opening day 2025 we'll have more data on the kids and another offseason to go after Chapman or trade for a long term solution. You move Seiya into a more full time DH role, give PCA daily starts, have RF for Cody (or Canario, or Caissie, or Alcantara). Aware this is more of a Sell discussion given Teel is probably at least a year away. But don't think removing Morel from the equation changes anything for the teams success the rest of the year.
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Jed Hoyer and the French Radical
squally1313 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
That team plus Hendricks at $16m, Bote at $5.5m, Neris at $9m, Smyly at $8.5m, Gomes at $6m, Barnhart at $2.5m, Mancini at $7m (total of $55.5m for a combined -1 WAR for the Cubs this year) all coming off the books. -
Yeah but Taillon isn't like, a shortstop. You need at least 5 of them, realistically 7-8. All of the pro-trade arguments essentially come down to clearing his salary because it's looking slightly underwater as a contract and just hoping it gets used in a different manner. We already have Hendricks (16m), Neris (hopefully) (9m), Bote (5.5m), Smyly (8.5m) coming off the books as essentially pure salary relief (by that I mean you don't have to replace their production/position), there's plenty of money and/or prospects there already to get us a front line starter without creating a hole there for the next 6 months and just assuming we'll fill it.
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Jed Hoyer and the French Radical
squally1313 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Bregman scares me. There's the short porch in left in Houston, the pretty clear decline in surface level stats, the fact that he's just another 30 year old first division/non all star starter on what will inevitably be another $20m deal. Really, I just want Shaw or Caissie to blow up somehow, despite having no expectations that the Cubs can produce that kind of bat. -
Jed Hoyer and the French Radical
squally1313 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Fair. I think, to your point, it looks exceedingly difficult to take this core and turn it into a 95 win team without blowing it up, which is probably what OP was (poorly/badly) trying to say when he talked about 'valuable sense' of the term playoff contender. But if you were to just make our catcher and third base production 20th in baseball vs where it is now (30th and 28th), that's 3 more wins just so far this year. Can you build a monster team if you have Happ/Bellinger/Seiya/Dansby/Nico/Busch fairly locked into your lineup? Probably not. Can you build an 87 win team? Yeah, and you aren't that far off. -
Jed Hoyer and the French Radical
squally1313 replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
I mean, filthy pitching staff plus best pen in several years plus the current offense, ranked 18th in baseball, is....a pretty good team on its own? Find a way to fit a premium bat around Busch/Happ/Dansby/Nico/Seiya, with PCA, Caissie, Shaw, Triantos, Alcantara, Ballesteros, etc all as either options or trade bait. -
I'm sure there will be a name or two that gets thrown out there, but that's conveniently skipping the following steps: PTR just putting the money right back in the team and not just telling Jed good luck with the farm dudes (Brandon Birdsell, opening day 5th starter!) The Cubs actually having to make the best contract offer during free agency You already have him, he's signed, he's going to probably give you as many starts as you want out of him.
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I'm not going to pretend to be the prospect guy around here, but nothing about a 25 year old (26 in August) with a 5.4 BB/9 rate in AAA screams 'let's trade the guy who has given us 250 innings of a 4.20 ERA and is outperforming last year'. We free up $18m a year to do....what? Giolito got 2/$30 after a 1 WAR season, Eduardo Rodriguez got 4/$80 after a 3 win season, neither of them have thrown a pitch this year.
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I feel like some people just want the Cubs to Declare They Are Sellers but haven't actually thought through how seemingly useless the whole exercise would be. All our good players are signed, reasonably so, for the next two years. All our bad players can't get you anything of value. Like, sure, do the Michael Scott 'I Declare Bankruptcy' thing if you want. But the normal sell off trades are good offensive players/starters on expiring deals or shutdown relievers. We have none of those. Relatedly, trading Taillon for a 40 FV guy when we've already used 9 different starters this year and Horton will definitely be on an innings limit next year seems a little rash.
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lol nevermind ok see you guys later
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Purely pitching wise….hes been…mostly fine right? Two line drives and a HBP in 10 batters. Fine is probably too generous, and obviously he screwed himself on that throw into center but the actual pitching is ok enough.
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Can we just forfeit? (We’re probably going to win)
