squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Yeah that rousing .740 OPS from Bellinger (which he's lucky to have based on the expected stats) is clearly what's going on here.
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This is way better given the context. And the fact that it was just long ago enough that it probably caught him by surprise.
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Yeah it's really not the 50/50 calls or the fluke hits or whatever that has done this team in. That's why the season is as long as it is, so that in theory those things even out and regress to a normal level. We're where we are because we have 2 excellent starting pitchers, a handful of good players, and a bunch of really bad performances on both sides of the ball.
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Both of those last two points are still related to the expanded playoffs though, in my opinion. 2 weeks ago a Cubs-like team on the fringe probably wasn't willing to make anyone of value (the 'right player') because there was still time to go on a run. When that run doesn't materialize before the end of the July, that team becomes more willing to make those players available. As for back in the day, 60 years there were 10 teams in each league and you needed to win the league to go to the playoffs (which was obviously just the World Series). On June 15th, 1965, 7 of the 20 teams were double digits back of the league leaders.
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Hahaha I mean, I'm firmly team Keep Him but I don't think I need to do a lot of emotional preparation to properly handle a Jameson Taillon trade. It'd be fine. I think ultimately the people that want to trade him are the same people that think the group of players signed for the next 2-3 seasons (Happ, Hoerner, Dansby, Seiya, maybe Cody, etc) aren't a good enough core to do anything substantial, which is a different argument but if you're in that boat then we should probably be looking at a fire sale more than just one semi-big trade.
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Gross.
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Just because his pinch hitters didn't succeed does not mean the original option would have. You're talking like 30% v 35%, actual differences are probably smaller than that. Busch and Tauchman are, in the sample size of 1 AB, marginally better than Wisdom and Bote, but Koenig is also better against lefties than righties. Wisdom hit a ball 104 MPH with a .350 xBA, Bote 96 MPH with a .290 xBA. Megill is significantly better against righties. I don't think managers really matter at all, but whatever value they do bring is in the macro. Saying otherwise is just doing the same stuff we did with Ross last year.
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I don't think Counsell is bad. But I think it's a fine take in that managers aren't the answer to any substantial question, and counting on the person in that role to have some outsized tangible impact is probably dumb. But then again the difference in salary is a rounding error, so whatever.
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horsefeathers terrible 2-0 call, cool cool
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5 wins from one player >> 5 wins from 2 players. If anything, the current iteration of this roster (2.5 win players for daysss) highlights the importance of this. And I think it's pretty fair to question whether a team making a playoff push would have two guys they realistically believed were 2 months of baseball away from being 3 and 2 win major league players but were choosing not to use them in said playoff push. Even the Orioles, who everyone will tell you has juggernauts all over the field blocking elite prospects, have given substantial PAs to Mountcastle (374, 0.9fWAR), Ramon Urias (166 PAs, 0.4 fWAR), Mullins (300 PAs, 0.3 fWAR), and Austin Hays (169 PAs, 0.1 fWAR).
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We're literally a year removed from calling up a bad defensive third baseman from AAA with a 180 wRC in 134 PAs and now we're going to trade our best pitcher, with years of control, to replace him with another no-glove third baseman and a corner outfielder/DH guy with a Baseball Savant page full of blue bars despite the sparkling wRC. That's not to say that those guys will or would suck, but trading the guy who almost certainly does not suck in the least because of 'downside' or just so we can say that We Were Sellers, is a very weird Shiny New Toy'Grass is Always Greener situation.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Tampa and St Louis huh. Well, color me shocked. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-19-24
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I disagree with the 'mismanagement' part. Players can just be bad at things. But the Ballesteros debate is interesting because I think a position like catcher needs to be learned and progressed at each level of the minors, but his bat is just carrying him on this express train up to AAA at age 20. 87 games at single A (.394 OBP when promoted), 56 games at high A to end 2023 (128 wRC), 56 games at AA (151 wRC), and now 20 games of 114 wRC in Iowa. For his age and number of games caught, you'd probably want him in high A behind the plate, but what good does that do for his offensive skill set at this point? -
Weird what happens when you expand the sample size beyond “one”
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Strike 2 was ball 3, but yeah, overall, this is horsefeathers infuriating
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I had to say something
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A home run that gets out in one other ballpark in baseball and a walk after 4.1 scoreless.
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I knew he was having a rough year but did not expect to see Corbin Carroll batting 7th and rocking a .633 OPS.
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Very weird how Morel gets a lot of 'well look at the advanced stats, he's just been getting really unlucky, there's a bounceback coming' support for his 51 point difference in wOBA and xwOBA but you don't seem to hear the same thing for Dansby and his 45 point difference. (Good to be back)
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Copy/pasting over here Some assorted thoughts before I realize Brock mul has beaten me to setting up this game thread: Cubs were hot, hopefully Cubs ride Shota's shut down ASG inning and stay hot This series doesn't count double but they are yet another team going for a wild card spot, so knocking them down a peg would help out more so than a normal win Hendricks going Saturday is a choice, but I guess with a 4.26/3.52/4.13 line since being added back to the rotation (in 5 starts), he's earned a normal role. Tauchman off the IL, Canario back to AAA Remember when PCA hit 2 dongs in St Louis? That was fun Got like 10 days here to keep themselves in the race before the people who have been calling for a sell off since May start yelling even louder. Good matchups today and Sunday, let's start with today. Mad Men gif? Mad Men gif. Me wanting to be buyers because why not, it's more fun:
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lol of course
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No but seriously, can we get a game thread? Tauchman up, Canario down doesn't really prompt it's own thread but after the mods continued their 'down with Mega Threads' war on the trade rumors thread there's kinda nowhere to go.
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Personally I'm just pumped that everyone who was worried about unsigned players not getting a full spring training gets to start beating that drum two weeks earlier for this offseason.
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Weekend Cubs/Sox series for the first time in a while, no?
