squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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I think if we get just a few dozen more message board posts freaking out about it, it might break the dam wide open
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Yeah but that's a different argument than what you made earlier. Did you want him to pick one of these four, say that that is his guy, and overpay for him two months ago?
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Is that an approach that you think would lead to the Cubs being one of the best teams in baseball? Are there obvious examples of other teams doing this? Weren't we all complaining about how long the Ohtani saga dragged out? Why didn't Friedman sign him in November?
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Yeah but what is that based on? Not signing Cody Bellinger like the other 29 GMs?
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We've been in win now/contending mode for like 7 months since Hoyer took over. Did you want him to go balls out after the 2021 year where we went 27-45 in the second half? We won 74 games in 2022 and then he turned that into an 83 win team in 2023 after picking up what looks to be the best shortstop of the options that were available when you consider both production and contract. Yeah he should have picked up more relievers, but that's obviously not going to turn any team into 'the best team in the NL'. There wasn't a better offensive player traded at the deadline than Candelario, he just sucked for the Cubs. His 2021 first rounder is already in the major league rotation, his 2022 first rounder is a top 3 pitching prospect in baseball, and his 2023 pick destroyed the lower minors and is a top 50 prospect going into this year. Both those latter two guys could legitimately be at Wrigley by the all star break. We were never getting Ohtani. Morel for Soto straight up was like, a debate around here, and then the Yankees put together a package that, per Baseball Trade Values, almost tripled the value of Morel. Outside of those two guys, what was the path that he could have taken to get us to 'challenging for the best record in the NL'?
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Honestly spring training is way too long for a sport like baseball. These dudes are all training year round anyways, it doesn't take 6 weeks to learn signs and bunt coverages. Dexter Fowler shocked the team on February 25th and then went out and OPSed 1100 in April that year. Jed obviously has multiple plans and has been in plenty of contact with Boras and the names he wants. As long as they're all still out there, no one is dictating anything.
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So are any statistics real to you besides like, home runs?
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How many runs do you assign to hitting a single
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can you elaborate
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I get your point. All things being equal, that means we have a 20% chance of being the team left without a dance partner. Call it 30% if you want to doom boner some mystery teams, whatever. But, all other things are not equal: The Cubs have a perfect sized cushion under the luxury tax and all signs point to them coming right up against it and are perfectly in the part of the win curve where these kinds of additions are maximized Blue Jays are already into the luxury tax and just lost an arbitration hearing to the face of their franchise, if that tells you anything about their willingness to throw a ton of money around. Signing any of these dudes would put the Rangers into the luxury tax. The Angels are projected for 77 wins and a 3% chance to win their division. The Giants have a 3.3% chance to win their division. The price of the three, or two, remaining isn't going to suddenly shoot up once a couple of them sign. It's much more likely teams take themselves out of contention and the cost goes down.
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Sure but these things don't all happen instantaneously. I don't think one signing ups the price of the others.
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Do you think it's possible that, for lack of a better phrase here, he's kinda indifferent between the choices and is fine waiting it out? It's not like some team in the central (or obviously anywhere else) is going to spend 9 figures to pull the rug out from under us. Toronto signs one of the four....great, that most likely takes them off the table as an option for the other three. Etc etc.
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To clarify, they are 9th in 2024 payroll at the moment at $204m, this supposed $30m-$32m puts them in 5th (behind NYY, NYM, Houston, and Philly). That's pure dollars spent. Luxury tax they are in 11th, theoretically moving up to 7th-8th.
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Lots of good answers above but also depends on what you mean/desire by 'truly competing' in 2024. 21% chance to win the division and 38% chance to make the playoffs as it stands now is competing to some. One of those big names makes it what....30%/50%? Conversely, we could sign all four of them and not be at the Dodgers/Braves level.
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Dead cat bounce for the Cardinals in that they gave Wainwright 21 almost entirely uncompetitive starts in his quest to get to 200 wins after they dropped out of contention. Having said that, agreed with most of the above...team is designed to project well. It's the Cardinals, so they'll maybe find some way to stay healthy and have the hard hit balls land on the track instead of over the wall, but they are definitely going to need to thread the needle a little bit. This is also a really expensive team for their standards already, and that's with the Sonny Gray contract backloaded. FG released projected standings today, Cubs at 81.5 wins, Cards at 84.4. If we can turn this rumored $30m into 3 wins, should put us at the top.
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2023 xwOBA Mike Tauchman: .345 Chris Morel: .346 Cody Bellinger: .331
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'Oh no what do we do with an outfielder capable of playing all three positions making $2m who produced 1.8 fWAR last year and is projected for 1.8 fWAR this year' is a problem I would absolutely love to have, in that it implies that like, Happ, Seiya, PCA, Alcantara, and either Bellinger or Canario are all going off to an incredible degree. The guy gave us more production last year than Mr. 'We can't trade him straight up for Shane Bieber', in slightly less PAs, and is projected for more on a per PA basis than him this year, let's just be happy we have him on the roster. Walks aren't sexy, but they're very effective.
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He said 24-30, Walker was excluded on the other side of his point, which is that they are supplementing the Olds with some very raw talent, which I think Walker still qualifies as given his age (21) and his 0.2 fWAR in 465 PAs last year
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Yeah I feel like there much be some garbage team out there with a black hole in one of their three outfield spots and an intriguing reliever or an 8th starter or something. Replacing Canario for 2024 purposes, either external or internal, can't be at all difficult.
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Happ has been the 14th best outfielder in baseball over the last two years and is projected to be the 30th best outfielder in baseball this year. If we end up with two other corner outfield guys who can comfortably exceed that, we'll be in amazing shape.
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It's just a stupid, bad faith argument. He can go back and pick and choose the players who signed big contracts and turned out good and use that as an indictment against the Cubs FO, because, obviously all those players were desperate to play here, while ignoring all the terrible contracts, the internal development, the very good position the Cubs currently find themselves in, etc. Just sign only good players, idiots, what, like it's hard? The Royals just committed 4 more years and $111m more to a shortstop who is projected to outproduce Dansby by 0.1 fWAR next year. But yes, dick sucking jokes, nice.
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The Royals had a top infield prospect in all of baseball, gave him 150 starts his rookie year while he OBPed under .300, let him develop into a stud his next year with another 158 games and locked him into a contract where they pay him like $43m over the next four years total, and and in response to that you....want to give Cody Bellinger and/or Matt Chapman, each projected around 3 WAR, $20-$30m a year for 3-7 years while PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, etc all sit around in the upper minors.
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Cubs payroll is, as of today, $50m higher than the Royals, they have a top 5 farm system while the Royals project as the worst, and have a 12-15 WAR advantage based on current rosters going into the season. Absolutely horsefeathers pathetic.
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We can't just pick and choose which version of Bellinger we like the best though right? He had 26 home runs last year, good for 41st in baseball. That's 6 more than PCA hit last year in the minors (in 56 more PAs). The 'last year was not a fluke' argument still assumes he traded power for contact right? That's not to say that even 85% of 2023 Bellinger isn't very useful, but even the most pro-Bellinger people here aren't expecting a 15% K rate AND 40+ HRs.
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This kinda establishes the Dylan cease market right? Because if so, I’m in.
