squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Pitchers break. Pitchers throwing 101 with run especially break.
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26-21
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I use 88 win pace because I think there’s a disconnect in how people view 88-74 (generally pretty good) and 25-21 (eh, essentially .500) when in reality it’s winning games just as often. we won 83 or 84 games last year, can’t remember, and our best hitter was a free agent. Expecting mid 90s in general for any team is going to lead to mostly disappointment, doing it for a team that was Actually Bad in 2022 and surprisingly slightly above average in 2023 is going to lead to even worse results. If you don’t think we’re an 88 win team, that’s just a vibes based thing because if anything you’d look at the health issues we’ve faced, none of them season ending, and assume just from regression to the mean we’d get better from how we’ve currently played. I wanted Chapman over bellinger. That’s been wrong so far. I still don’t know how you could write the offseason realistically, even with the benefit of 6 weeks of performance.
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But you get the point on just how well mastro was performing at AAA right?
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What are you proposing here
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I don’t understand what the first part means. This incredibly flawed team everyone is complaining about, if they continue playing the same way they’ve played, would win 88 games. Are we just ignoring YTD performance and going off vibes instead? ‘Well they’ll probably collapse down the road for reasons, so throw out the first 30% of the season’. We weren’t getting Ohtani. And even if you think he would have considered the cubs, that’s not a Jed problem. Who else do you mean by ‘top free agents’? We signed the top starting pitcher. Bellinger is pretty good, though he’s been hurt (Jed’s fault). Been better than Chapman, which is who I wanted, so I was (so far) wrong there. I’m not sure what you would really go back and retroactively do here to overcome 15 injuries in the first 45 games.
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Jed hoyer didn’t do anything this offseason! Please ignore this historically successful starting pitcher and also our really good starting center fielder that he doesn’t get credit for for whatever reason because he…already had the good idea of signing him last year. Also don’t worry about that first baseman who gets paid the league minimum (for two more years after this!) and carried our team offensively for a week and has a 123 OPS+ this year (rizzo for his cubs career: 130). None of that counts. He should have found really good hitters to accept bench roles and then found an extra $60m to spend on bullpen guys, but only the ones who have pitched well this year. outside shota (again, no one gets credit for signing him) literally every key player besides morel has had injury problems. We’ve been facing a brutal run of starting pitching (hat tip @UMFan83). We’re playing at an 88 win pace, 4 wins above last year. Things could be worse.
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Where
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2 runs in 3 innings, what an unmitigated disaster
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So might be worth watching this game, not for the right cubs reasons. Skenes 6 Ks through 2. apologies on the thread, caught me on a vacation
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Scheffler arrested outside of the PGA this morning for disobeying traffic cops after a pedestrian was killed a couple hours prior. Like taken out of his car walked to a police car in cuffs, on video. talk about opening up ‘all cops are bad’ to a new demographic
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Madrigal at short, whatever. It’s a bad idea but it’s all we got and mastro doing his 4-3 thing lets me do the thing where I can pretend that would have been the game changing move.
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PCA for mastro? Ian can play 2nd if it ends up working.
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He had an RBI single like 18 minutes ago
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-16-24
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
The cubs have like 8 MLB caliber outfielders, 7 quality starting pitchers, two half’s of a starting corner infield, and then two little leaguers in the middle infield and maybe one effective actual reliever. Is that a good team? I don’t know, doesn’t seem like it, but…maybe? -
I’m not watching but…it’s a warm humid night in Chicago? I mean, the worst left fielder in baseball history hit a home run, things must be weird out there
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Just realized we could cut taillon too because he was bad last time! Perfect, can throw brown back in the rotation.
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Yeah probably. At least we have the guy to cut when Horton is ready
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Sure, but over his last seven games (including the home run), he’s been good, right? Going from memory now, over the last 4, he’s had a really good OBP. Over the last 2, he’s been really good. But over 6, sure, maybe you have a point? I just think it’s dicing games up in the worst possible light to get to a conclusion.
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Is this really how we should be evaluating things
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Yeah I mean, his LOB% is 7th in baseball (Shota is first, which probably isn't great), and would have been first last year, so even setting aside the impressive WHIP it's fair to expect the big picture numbers to get worse. 3.8% HR/FB is also a skill that would be really cool to have, but...probably not. But the thing about a 1.49 ERA is that it's like, historically good in larger sample sizes, and can more than double before you get past whatever your definition of #2 starter is.
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I don't mean to call you out specifically, but why are so many sample sizes around here just essentially 'since this guy did a good thing, but not including the good thing that he did'. If you include that game through today as your stretch, he's been a 130 wRC hitter!
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Hendricks Skenes tomorrow is a hilarious pitching matchup
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All fair. If his HBP/contact regression aligns with the other four outfielders being healthy/not completely lost (haven't seen it yet), then you start worrying about PAs a little bit (because I think, ignoring all the people who want Happ taken out back and shot, then expected versions of Happ, Bellinger, Seiya, Tauchman are all better than a .285 OBP PCA for the immediate future). But we'll cross that bridge on the off chance we come to it.
