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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    That Adames projection projection is higher than the crowdsourced one but still should make people feel better about the Swanson contract. Burnes at $30m a year but not some monstrous length where you're paying him into his 40s is a pretty acceptable use of money for me if you can't think of anything else more creative to do. Ditto for Fried, let the real analytic nerds figure out which one is better (or, given last offseason, maybe it's just whoever is around the longest). Think I'm out on the Teoscar/Santander/Alonso group. They aren't good enough hitters to anchor an offense around, and Suzuki's presence, both as a superior hitter and a should-be DH level of defense, means you're giving back some of the offense right away. Does Carlos Santana and his 161 wRC against lefties do anything for us at 1/$9m?
  2. squally1313
    Yeah I don't see a lot of attractive free agent offensive options (besides the one obvious one). Keep the lines open on Rooker, Tucker, Vlad, etc through a trade, and if so then you start to lean harder on turning the AAA bats into MLB pitching. But if you don't make a serious offensive upgrade, throw money at the rotation/bullpen, minimize the chances of giving significant PAs to offensive anchors, lean on above average production up and down the line up and hope for Caissie or Shaw to show they're elite.
  3. squally1313
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/ Here are the FG predictions. Haven't dug in yet, but I'm inclined to lean on these a little heavier than any of the other ones I've seen.
  4. squally1313
    I think it's 3 things for me. In a perfect healthy world, there's one spot in the lineup where you could foresee the benefit of having Tauchman PH (catcher). And that's before we potentially try and upgrade that position. And that's also before the idea of getting a lefty masher, who further reduces that opportunity, or trading/for signing a true starter bat, which pushes a current starter to the bench to take those PH spots. In a regular injury world, you still have to gameplan out pretty pessimistic scenarios where you'd be like 'man, I really wish we had Mike Tauchman'. Suzuki could slide back into the outfield, Caissie is knocking on the door, Alcantara isn't far behind. He's still good, and has value for a team that needs a cheap 3rd/4th outfielder. We don't need those things, but we need other things. Trade him.
  5. squally1313
    Agreed, while I'd prefer all the post-2026 FA guys here because I don't see any better options for 2025, it's a different decision process next offseason. Hopefully by then you've either brought in or can point to a couple of the Shaw/Caissie/Alcantara as solid/elite talent that lets you offload a Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, etc for some cash relief.
  6. squally1313
    Possibly, but you're still looking at that being the only money coming off the books vs the $50m we had this offseason and the much higher number after 2026, and that's before arbitration raises to Steele and Paredes.
  7. squally1313
    There's an additional surcharge if we go more than $20m over, but not a terrible one (penalty percentage goes from 30% to 42%). Over $40m past the limit it starts to get pretty painful (think we move from 30% to 72%), but I don't think anyone thinks that is a realistic outcome here. Percentage goes from 30% to 50% if we cross the threshold again in 2026, and given the lack of expiring deals after 2025 (Swanson/Bellinger/Happ/Suzuki/Taillon/Imanaga/Hoerner are all signed through 2026), that's probably the real motivator in staying under this year and resetting. You'd probably expect them to fall back under after 2026.
  8. squally1313
    Manning and Rodgers didn't win anything, but the Steelers, who haven't won a playoff game since 2016 (right around the ultimate decline of a, at least borderline, HOF QB, are 'winning without them'.
  9. squally1313
    It's the incremental piece. $3-$4.5m.
  10. squally1313
    Would you consider a team similar to the one on the field in the second half of last year? Because that team played at a 91 win pace. I don't like reducing sample sizes more than necessary, but this team with Productive PCA and Paredes instead of Morel (or really just...not having Morel), was a little different than opening day. And yes, please, go get a starter to challenge Shota and Steele, or go make a trade for a 140 wRC bat. Or do both. With Bellinger opting in, it gets a lot harder to see the options for drastic change. I just think the baseline is a little higher than others do.
  11. squally1313
    Wacha to the Royals, 3/51 with a team option for a fourth year at $21m.
  12. squally1313
    You have 6 guys (Happ, PCA, Suzuki, Bellinger, Busch, Rooker) for 5 spots (LF/CF/RF/DH/1B), and that's before doing potentially dumb/creative things like giving Busch a second baseman's glove. Everybody gets a day off once a week and you always have an above league average hitter on your bench. Seems plenty workable to me.
  13. squally1313
    Yeah I've yet to see a compelling argument for taking pieces of that group (Happ, Seiya, Hoerner, Taillon) and moving them off the roster in a way that improves the 2025 team. They all performed, we have plenty of money, and there's no sure thing in Iowa forcing them out. But I think if things go south in 2025 or kinda regardless next offseason, you have to start thinking about breaking that group up into smaller chunks one way or another. Hopefully that's forced by us bringing in a couple big name guys this offseason. But it's too much turnover at once and it comes about a year (maybe a year and a half) too late to align with the internal replacements.
  14. squally1313
    I think I agree conceptually that the main problem is the lack of cheap production, but I don't know how that problem is solved by signing two free agent pitchers instead of one free agent hitter. Yeah most of our prospects are on the offensive side of the spectrum, but our starting spots are 9/9 filled as we speak, and Soto is the only elite option out there, so go get him, make the bench a strength, and then turn the cheap prospect offense into cheap pitching.
  15. squally1313
    I won't pretend like it's the most efficient use of resources, but in terms of LT concern for 2026 and (less so) going forward, I could us being in a position similar to where the Astros find themselves with Tucker or Jays find themselves with Vlad. Guys like Happ, Suzuki, Hoerner aren't at that caliber, but I think would still be moderately attractive as trade targets on a one year deal and we would be in a spot where we'd have ready to go replacements in AAA for league minimum. I'm not really advocating for that kind of move before next offseason, but if we make some big splashes this year it's a path to explore.
  16. squally1313
    Soto's last at bat as a Yankee ends in a ground ball to first. Hopefully the whole fan base blames him for not coming through in the clutch.
  17. squally1313
    What kind of lead do you have to have to consider pulling Cole in the hopes he can give you something in game 7
  18. squally1313
    It does not, purely an offensive statistic.
  19. squally1313
    In the Soto scenario why are we guaranteed to get Hendricks level production out of his spot in the rotation?
  20. squally1313
    Trying to avoid circular logic here, but, while Wisdom got a disproportionate amount of PAs against LHPs, the theory is that he got his starts/pinch hit opportunities against the high quality lefties (ie, the ones Counsell didn't think Busch could handle). It didn't work on the whole in 2024 (though people above have shown it worked for most of the year), but all in all a 112 wRC against LHP is fine for a bench bat that can be leveraged into those spots.
  21. squally1313
    Why can't Jed be proactive and remove players from the roster before they have an extended cold streak??? Another failure in the front office, along with signing 2025-2026 Anthony Rizzo for $26m. This guy stinks!
  22. squally1313
    It's not that much cheaper. these days. I'm probably moving the goalposts a little bit here, but the worst seat at the United Center (for a Hawks game) is a lot better than the worst seat at Wrigley. I'm pretty comfortable going on TM/Stubhub and picking the cheapest seat available for the Hawks, whereas for the Cubs it'd have to be a pretty elite game to be down the lines or super far under the overhang, so I'm usually paying more than it would technically take just to get in the door. Bottom line, none of those three teams have shown anything close to deserving that kind of financial commitment at this point. You'd think they would realize that and get people on a cheaper, auto-renewing payment plan and then justify a price increase based on improved performance (even if just regression to the mean).
  23. squally1313
    It's an insane proposition. I hate paying the $20/month for Marquee, but at least in that scenario I'm getting 25 games a month out of it. The Hawks play 12 games in November.
  24. squally1313
    There's a non-zero chance tonight might be Rizzo's last professional baseball game.
  25. squally1313
    You really think so negatively of Jed Hoyer, who in his first major moves as GM sold off basically whatever was left of the 2016 team (correctly), that you think the Yankees would decline what is essentially an $11m option (either paying him $17m or buying him out for $6m), and then we would come in and sign him for more money, and a whole additional year, and then would point to him as our power bat (2024 slugging: .335, below average hitter the last two years), so that he could make Michael Busch, who played all of 18 innings anywhere besides first base last year, our 'Ben Zobrist of 2025'? You really think that's his plan?
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