While this is probably true, how much of an effect will playing in the AL West, namely Oakland, and moving to the hitter's paradise of the NL Central offset the benefit? Zito has not been a special pitcher for quite some time. His ERA+ was between 125 and 175 for 4 years, but he's been at just 105 and 116 the past 2 years. He might be off to a better start this year, but if he stays in that lower range he doesn't deserve the type of money people are talking about. It's interesting to note that baseball reference lists Mike Hampton as the most similar pitcher. Hampton signed his big free agent deal at the same age (actually a little younger) as Zito will be when he signs his deal. And he was actually coming off better years than Barry. I agree with you. I guess I didn't make it clear that I don't really want to sign Zito. I live out West and hear about him all the time and think he is overrated. I was just listing one theoretical positive of signing him. Obviously there are numerous negatives, includeing the point you made, that I believe outweigh the positives. He had two spectacular years (2000 and 2002), two very good years (2001 and 2003), one good year (2005), and one eh year (2004). The trend is not moving in the right direction. If he didn't win the Cy Young in 2002, I don't think there would be as many people talking about him as a premier pitcher. But because he has a Cy to his resume, he gets more pub.