Coming back to this, assuming Panama doesn't get any points later in Azteca, you have: USA 8 pts +1 GD Honduras 8 pts -6 GD Panama 7 pts -1 GD With these schedules: USA: @Hon, v.Pan, @T&T Hon: v.USA, @CR, v.Mex Pan: v.T&T, @USA, v.CR A tie and a win for the US would not only put them at 11 points, but make it extremely difficult for them to be caught since Panama would likely be on 10 points and Honduras 9 entering the final game day where the US has by far the best matchup. 4 points from the next 2 games isn't a given, but Honduras hasn't exactly defended their home field well, and there's other uncertainties like Panama taking 3 from T&T(they haven't won at home in the hex). We're fine unless Costa Rica clinches a top-3 against Mexico and decides to not try in their last two games. It's unlikely with the matchups but Mexico would absolutely tank that last game if it screwed us over. But the only way that would happen is if we beat/tied Honduras but lost to Panama and then Honduras won in Costa Rica. Even to finish third we could lose a close one to Honduras and still be fine because of goal differential. Lose to Honduras, win the next two and Honduras would have to beat Mexico by 7 goals or something to make up the GD.