soccer10k

Looks like this is a “check back in 45-60 minutes to see if things changed” situation.

I miss when the B-R Play Index was free because I would have looked up how many teams had ever gone 39-9 before. Don't know what their best 48 game stretch was, though it was better because they went 44-7 at one point, but the 2017 Dodgers started 35-25, then were 91-36, then were 92-52. It’s just wild that a team would go 56-11 and then immediately follow it up by going 1-16.

I didn't realize that the Brewers are only 2 games up on Philly for the 1 seed now. Relevant to us since we'll be in the 1-2 WC matchup which means we'd play the 1 seed if we advance. I've just assumed that would be Milwaukee because they were way up but they're 4-6 in the last 10 while Philly is 8-2.

The Brewers have a better chance of a long playoff run but that's mainly because they don't have to play the WC round.

Besides the Cubs winning, we should be rooting for the Padres-Dodgers race to go down to the last day since we'll likely be playing the loser of that. Every little bit helps in the playoffs.

Not good. Would be perfect for us for LA-SD to go down to the last day since we'll likely be playing one of them.

It was the e fourth time a player had a shot at 5 home runs. Mike Cameron actually had 2 chances. He homered twice in the 1st, in the 3rd and 5th before getting hit by a pitch in the 7th and lining out in the 9th.

Yep, that’s the one I was thinking of. 13-16 in August, 12-16 in Sept/Oct, up 5 games on Sept 7, lost their final five games (the last three were to the 62-100 Royals) to lose the division by a game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006-schedule-scores.shtml 13-15 in August and 12-17 in Sept/Oct. They were up 7 games with 11 games left but then lost 8 of 9 and saw their lead trimmed to 0.5 games. I seem to remember another team in the last 20 years that either nearly blew the division or did blow it but got a WC, then went on a run in the playoffs.

That’s amazing. His senior year of high school, his average game was 35 carries, 328 yards and 4 TDs. For the season he had 4261 yards and 55 TDs in 13 games.

Derrick Henry currently has 11592 rushing yards, which means he's 6763 yards behind Emmitt. He's currently in his age 31 season. At age 28 he had over 1500 yards with Tannehill as his QB and at 29 he had 1167 yards with Tannehill and Levis splitting time. Then last year with Lamar he got over 1900. If he could average 1300 yards over the next three years, that would mean he'd only be 3000 behind Emmitt (taking out the 169 he got last night). He'd obviously have to stay healthy, but he's only had 1 year where he played fewer than 15 games. Maybe he stays with Baltimore for a couple more years and averages 1500 yards through 2027. That puts him about 2400 behind Emmitt and he'll be going into his age 34 season. Three years as a part timer at 800 yards a year gets him there at age 36. It's definitely not likely, but I don't think it would be the craziest thing if he managed to surpass Emmitt. And we never know who the freak outliers are until they're actually doing it (like Brady and LeBron, though obviously the RB position is different than QB or an NBA player).

It holds a small amount of weight but not much when it goes against all other evidence. Again I ask, which of those hitters would you reasonably expect to revert back to how they hit from April and May? I'll give you Tucker if he was healthy, which he's not. So four of those hitters way overperformed what was expected of them and the fifth is injured, why on earth should I reasonably expect that offense to return? Is it possible? Sure. But it's not smart to expect the 1-5% end of the bell curve to happen again. You're making an argument against a point I'm not even making. I'm not ranking the teams 1-30 where there has to be a best team and a second best team, etc, and I'm not talking about how likely they are to advance in the playoffs. The best team in a season isn't necessarily a great team. This season is different than 2017-2023 where they were 3 or 4 100+ win teams. If you have five dudes who are all between 5'-6" and 5'-10", that doesn't make the 5'-10" guy tall. It just means he's taller than the other guys. The Cubs can be the second or third best team this year without being a great team. And I'm not trying to say they're like the 16th best team. I would recommend scrolling rght past the dumbasses. It's very easy to because I do it most times I venture into a game thread. Or if you can't scroll past all of them, pick the 3 or 4 dumbest of the dumbasses and block them so you don't even see their posts. Also it's a game thread and people are allowed to overreact a bit. Not everyone is a robot like David. And yes, some are worse than others. So block the worst ones.

That’s funny because I’ve had the opposite experience. I use the app on my Samsung TV because the app on my Roku didn’t work all that great.

I'm aware that the overly negative people suck also. I already said that. Personally it's very easy for me to scroll right past their stupidity. But it really bothers me to have someone who generally appears to be pretty intelligent and logical about all things baseball trying to use a a 5-4 stretch against 3 of the worst 6 teams in the majors (which you tried to do with your point about the latest homestand) as part of your proof that this team is still good. Especially when he pops in at the end of a lot of losses to try and say how everything is still great. The other teams don't matter in this case. I'm evaluating the Cubs. I'm aware that they're aren't any great teams this year. That doesn't mean we have to say the best few teams are great. I am willing to discount the first couple months because it was clearly a hot streak by the offense. When you score runs like one of the best 30 offenses for 2 months, sorry, but that likely isn't sustainable. And they haven't come close to continuing to do that. Arbitrary end points because I have to pick a date, but OPS pre June 1 vs after June 1, Carson Kelly is 270 points worse, Tucker is 105 points worse, Suzuki 196 points worse, PCA 130 points worse, Amaya (.819 OPS) is injured. Happ is 71 points better, Dansby basically the same, Shaw basically the same (though much better since the ASB), Busch basically the same. We know Tucker got hurt at some point and we also don't know how much that affected him since he hit well for a bit after the one injury we know about (unless I missed something). But he also might not be healthy the rest of the year. Kelly's hitting wasn't going to continue. Maybe the league adjusted a bit to PCA's free swinging, I don't know. His July was great but his August has been abysmal. Both aren't likely to continue. Seems unlikely it would take the league 4 months to figure a guy out but maybe they did. Suzuki's numbers overall are now fairly close to his career numbers. Amaya is still injured and who knows when he'll be back. I'm not sure there's anyone in there where you can be confident they'll go back to hitting like they did in April/May, and certainly not most or all of them. Those wins are banked and they can't be taken away. But if I'm evaluating how the Cubs are as a whole, yes, I'm going to discount an unsustainable hot streak by the offense. It's no different than how nobody really thinks the Brewers are some 100 win juggernaut. Sure they went 39-9. Those wins are banked also. They're on pace for 100 wins. But nobody in their right mind expects them to play at that pace again, right? Well, I don't expect the Cubs to score runs like one of the best 30 offenses ever. And guess what, when they stopped doing that, they went from playing at a high 90's win pace to a mid 80's win pace. Which again, will still get them into the playoffs and will still give them a shot to make and win the World Series. But that doesn't mean we have to be happy about how they've played for 3 months or use 9 game samples against shitty teams to sugar coat things and make it seem like nothing is wrong. You got a legitimate reason why things are going to turn around, I'd love to hear it. But 9 game samples aren't it.

Sorry, but a 3 month sample is much more relevant than a 9 game sample so what I’m doing isn’t remotely similar to what you’re doing. If I was you, I’d say the Cubs are a horsefeathers team because they’re 5-7 in the last 12, which is a 67.5 win pace, while playing 9 of those games against 3 of the worst 6 teams in the league. But because I’m not you, I’m not making a BS argument based on a 9 or 12 game sample And frankly, I don’t care about how all of these other teams are doing. This is a Cubs forum and a Cubs game thread. I mean it’s great that the Cubs likely have the 1st WC spot locked up because everyone else sucks and we aren’t stressing in any way about making the playoffs. But that’s not what we’re discussing here. And the overall point is we don’t need you to come in here being Captain Fucking Positive after every loss telling us how things are going to be okay because we’re 5-4 in our last 9.

It was a 3-3 home stand against two of the worst 6 teams in the league. I mean, I know baseball gonna baseball sometimes, but that’s nothing to be remotely content with. Stop with this uber positive horsefeathers all the time. It’s as annoying as the uber negative horsefeathers. I know you know about small sample sizes so you can cut that out too. This team has been 3 games over .500 over the last 3 months. I don’t particularly care what they did over a 9 game sample that you’ve cherry picked because oh cool they played at a 92 win pace or whatever over those 9 games. For 3 months they’ve played like a 84 win team.

Oh great now Palencia is hurt.

Not tho e best 9th inning from Palencia!

Someone tell me why I should have any expectations for the USMNT at the World Cup next year beyond making it out of what will likely be a softer group because we'll be seeded and maybe winning the R32 game? Upsets obviously could happen and maybe we get lucky with a softer R16 game too. But realistically, if we finish 1st or 2nd in our group and win the R32 game, we're going to get a group winner in the R16 which is likely a heavyweight.

Yep, can't just be bad. Have to be unlucky too. White Sox second best month by winning percentage was .321. Rockies have had 3 months better than that. Rockies longest losing streak has been 8 games, which they did 5 times. The White Sox had losing streaks of 12, 14 and 21. The White Sox had a stretch (which included the 12 and 21 game streaks) where they went 4-42. Scrolling through the Rockies game long, I think the most losses they had in a span with only 4 wins was 28. That's abysmal and yet it's still 14 losses away from what the White Sox did. White Sox pythag was 48-114. Rockies before today had a pythag pace of 45-117.

Brewers playing at a 130 win pace for 6 weeks (or whatever it was) is going to cost us the division. If they had just played at like a 110 win pace in that stretch, we’d be tied. EDIT: They went 39-9 which is a 131.6 win pace. If they had gone 34-14, which is a 115 win pace, we’d be tied.

The A’s owner might top them both.

Very optimistic of you to say we’ve got 2 months of baseball left. Lol.

Ryan Helsley has made 14 appearances with the Mets since getting traded and has allowed a run in 9 of them. After today's outing, his ERA with the Mets is 11.45 and prior to today, his FIP was 5.55.