So the Nats are 50-51. For comparison, last year the Cubs were 54-47 after 101 games and had "woken up", having won 11 of 13. To get 95 wins, they would have to go 45-16, which is a 119 win pace. To get 90 wins, they would have to go 40-21, which is a 106 win pace. To get 87 wins, they would have to go 37-24, which is a 98 win pace. To get 85 wins, they would have to go 35-26, which is a 93 win pace. Since they went to two wild cards, the lowest win total to make the playoffs is 85, from the Twins last year. In the NL, it's 87, done three times (Rockies last year and the Mets and Giants in 2016). Right now they're 7 back of Philly and 5.5 back of Atlanta, who they're also behind for the second wild card. They've got 7 left against Atlanta and 9 against Philly. Bare minimum they have to win both series, if not 5-2 vs. Atl and/or 6-3 vs. Philly. They've also got 12 games against Miami and 9 against the Mets left, though Philly has 21 combined and Atlanta 17. I wouldn't be surprised if 88 wins is enough for them to either win the division or snag one of the wild card spots but they're running out of time and they're going to have to play at around a 100-win pace the rest of the way to make the playoffs.