Realistically, 11-5 probably does it, maybe 12-4. The only way we catch the Cards is to go 5-2 against them which knocks out 3 of the 4 games. Going 6-3 in the other 9 probably gets it done with the Cards schedule (Wash, Mil, Ari). Cards do have to face Strasburg, Corbin and Scherzer in that series. Even if we go 4-3 against St Louis, 8-1 in the other games might be enough to win the division outright but would probably get at least a tie. That being said, I’m not sure if 11-5 or 12-4 would happen either.