Transmogrified Tiger

So this is what happens when Tulsa plays an actual football team.

Gonzalez is a work in progress. He's still really young, but he didn't do anything at Peoria and not much at Boise. I'm most concerned about his defense, I think he was originally a SS but as the year went on played all over the infield. I hope that was a personnel thing and not a shortcoming for him.

Last year in the week before the Cotton Bowl, Arkansas' defensive backs spent the week telling the media about how Mizzou hadn't faced a real defense or something similar about "SEC speed". Then gameday came and Mizzou laid them to waste. We had a lot of fun finding Matteral Richardson on the field and watching him chase Tony Temple.

Care to explain this? I was a big fan of Hermida, but he took a step backward last year. Do you just happen to think it was a fluke because he's still so young, or is there something I'm missing? Falling off a little was probably to be expected with as high as his BABIP was in '07, but his '08 is masked by terrible numbers in a terrible hitters park. His .288/.364/.487/.851 line away from home as a 24 year old is pretty stellar, and with his age and minor league pedigree you can expect him to improve. He'd also combine with Soto to give a great cost effective pair of hitters to ease the pain of Lee/Ramirez/Soriano declining or leaving the team.

Kroeger is a cut above the Hoffpauirs and Deedses of the world. He has the tools in the OF to be a decent bench bat, Hoffpauir and Deeds are first basemen with mediocre bats for the position.

Please go get Hermida for RF if he's remotely available.

I need a RB and a flex out of: Edge James Jamal Lewis McFadden Braylon Edwards Ocho Cinco

This is great news for my trip to Ames in a couple weeks.

Percentage of starts going at least 6 innings, 2008 Johan Santana: 91% Cole Hamels: 87% Dan Haren: 87% Tim Lincecum: 85% Brandon Webb: 82% Jake Peavy: 81% Ted Lilly: 79% Ryan Dempster: 75% Ben Sheets: 74% Chad Billingsley: 69% Edinson Volquez: 66% The names on this list are Lilly and the Top 10 in NL ERA+. Lilly doesn't seem to be appreciably worse than the best of the best at staying in games, and as the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th(please Rich Hill) best starter, it's probably pretty great.

I can't believe Utah and Boise State are tied for 7th in the computer polls. Hopefully Utah, BYU, and TCU all make sure each other end up with at least a loss or two, and somebody knocks off Boise State before they get a BCS berth they don't deserve.

Yet he hasnt pitched since the 18th? Anyone know why? I read somewhere, maybe TCR, that he was supposed to pitch earlier this week but rain pushed him back to Sunday. Haven't seen anything since.

It seems like 90% of that 90% are thrown a maximum 4 yards past scrimmage. I don't know why anyone would telegraph a blitz against him, he just immediately slings it to Cosby and gets 5-6 yards.

For the more statistically minded, here's a close game(within 2 scores) S&P ranking of all the BCS schools. S&P is like the OPS of Football, combining "success rate" and "Points per play". More on the methodology here. The number you see is Offensive S&P minus Defensive S&P. It's not adjusted for strength of schedule, but a "+" number(like OPS+ or ERA+) is due out soon when there's sufficient data. Close-game S&P Differential (Offense minus Defense) - All BCS teams 1. Texas (+0.510) 2. Penn State (+0.490) 3. USC (+0.420) 4. Florida State (+0.352) 5. Oklahoma State (+0.349) 6. Oklahoma (+0.349) 7. Boston College (+0.340) 8. Texas Tech (+0.334) 9. Missouri (+0.333) 10. Alabama (+0.318) 11. Florida (+0.313) 12. Oregon (+0.298) 13. South Florida (+0.257) 14. Iowa (+0.256) 15. Georgia (+0.255) 16. Oregon State (+0.217) 17. LSU (+0.207) 18. Louisville (+0.196) 19. Kansas (+0.178) 20. Arizona (+0.176) 21. Ohio State (+0.174) 22. Tennessee (+0.155) 23. Nebraska (+0.153) 24. Cincinnati (+0.151) 25. Georgia Tech (+0.142) 26. Clemson (+0.136) 27. UConn (+0.114) 28. South Carolina (+0.113) 29. California (+0.109) 30. West Virginia (+0.108) 31. Notre Dame (+0.097) 32. Illinois (+0.093) 33. Kansas State (+0.092) 34. Northwestern (+0.092) 35. Maryland (+0.084) 36. Minnesota (+0.075) 37. Michigan State (+0.068) 38. Ole Miss (+0.066) 39. North Carolina (+0.064) 40. Pittsburgh (+0.063) 41. Kentucky (+0.053) 42. Miami-FL (+0.036) 43. Wisconsin (+0.027) 44. Arizona State (+0.022) 45. Baylor (+0.006) 46. Wake Forest (+0.005) 47. Stanford (-0.008) 48. Virginia Tech (-0.017) 49. Vanderbilt (-0.019) 50. Duke (-0.021) 51. Auburn (-0.022) 52. Arkansas (-0.024) 53. Rutgers (-0.025) 54. Virginia (-0.045) 55. Indiana (-0.050) 56. Mississippi State (-0.094) 57. Purdue (-0.097) 58. Colorado (-0.097) 59. Michigan (-0.108) 60. UCLA (-0.113) 61. Iowa State (-0.135) 62. N.C. State (-0.188) 63. Syracuse (-0.199) 64. Texas A&M (-0.218) 65. Washington (-0.437) 66. Washington State (-0.569)

Have we actually proven that Sulley will exist if he can't speak out against those speaking ill of the Illini? I like to think of it as a public service.

Don't ask me, Mizzou has only mattered to me for 3+ years. It's much more convenient to refer that far back as the Michigan State days, especially for the purposes of hating on Illinois.

Not too surprising, I think even he got hacked a couple times during that comeback.

If you disagree, explain why. That response adds nothing. Several media outlets have picked up on the possibility of Lee being dealt, the rationale is that he'd waive his NTC to go to the west coast to be closer to his blind(or nearly blind?) daughter.

Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis? Trading Lee lops off 13M from 2008 Not brining back Wood lops of 7.5M from 2008 Trading Marquis lops off 6.375 from 2008 Grand total of about $27M saved over 2008 budget from the guys you mentioned We'll also lose Howrys 4M, Liebers 3.5M and Wards 1.2M, for roughly $36M total Now lets look at the increase in salaries from 2008 to 2009 Z=2.75M ARAM=1.65M Sori=3M Lilly=5M Fukudome=5.5M Dempster=lets assume 7M (increase from 5.5M to 12.5M) DeRo=.75M Harden=5M Gaudin, Johnson, Wuertz, Cotts, and Cedeno go to arbi, lets estimate $3M more total. So thats roughly $34M in increases meaning net net, we can drop our firstbaseman (without any reasonable subsitute), our closer (without adding another back of the BP guy), and our 5th starter (with a more than viable replacement) and save a whopping $2M from the 2008 payroll to go out there and throw at Tex! Now the above doesn't include signing bonuses. I don't think anyone is really sure how MLB teams account for them. Additionally, Crane did say that the payroll could be bumped. But all in all, the point of the exercise is to show that the Cubs are gonig to need a payroll bump to bring back the same team and even will need a bump if they get rid of Marquis and don't sign Wood. Where this money is coming from to throw at Tex, I still have no clue. Harden is only a 2.5 mil increase, from 4.5 to 7. I had a bit of a simpler exercise in mind. Would you agree that money wouldn't be a problem in the team bringing back Wood and Dempster(within reason of course)? I hope so, because that's the assumption I'm running with. To simplify, let's say Dempster would sign 4/50 and Wood 3/30. Trading Lee and not bringing Wood back is 23 million. Teixeira for ~20 mil and Cruz for ~5 is right there and it fits easily with any type of backloading on Teixeira's deal. If Lee brought you back a good SP, then you don't have to bring back Dempster, or you can drop Marquis' expiring contract on whoever wants his innings, that frees up an additional 6-12 million.

Letting Wood go isn't a bad move in and of itself, you free up some money, get a draft pick or two. The moves that follow define how good an idea it was. If you let Wood go and then give out another Howry/Eyre contract to replace him with Scott Linebrink, then it's not a good idea. If you use the same money you would've used on Wood and bring in Fuentes, then it's fine(the disparity in picks may be worth the upgrade in health/left handedness). If you use some of that money on say, Juan Cruz, and the rest as part of a larger plan(Trading Lee and signing Teixeira for example), then it's a pretty good idea.

Now that could be interesting. Now I kind of want Derrek Lee to go. Where is this money coming from? Trading Lee? Not bringing Wood back? Trading Marquis?

Wasn't he pulled as closer at the end of the year? Yes, but his previous effectiveness in the role still drives his price up. It's the same concept that gets people like Bob Wickman and Todd Jones contract after contract.

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Gregg will be way overvalued because of his history closing. Nelson has been good for a couple years and will be first year arb eligible, but he's also 33. For my money, do a package of up to Pie+Ceda for Hermida and be done with the Marlins.

Anderson or O'Sullivan? Suicide is currently doubtful, but could be upgraded to probable late in the week.

hahahaha I think my favorite part was Braun's affliction t-shirt and skinny jeans.