Transmogrified Tiger

Zero interest in Ross here. He's not going to take a multi-year deal, and he can't remotely be counted on to stay healthy(the team that knows most about his arm just released him). The best case scenario is that he holds up for a 3ish win season and then you fight the market to keep him for his age 31+ seasons, which really isn't worth the huge risk. He'd be a prime bullpen conversion if he wasn't so obviously going to get another chance as a SP.

Well, Duensing is probably going to throw strikes. And lefties aren't going to hit home runs off him.

http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/43005/winter-meetings-preview-cubs-set-their-sights-on-pitching Ramos is a name I hadn't seen discussed in much detail. Not knowing much about him, he's done pretty well with Miami. Here's his last 2 years: Of course, here's a point of comparison from that same timeframe: That's Justin Grimm. Now on one hand, that makes me feel a little better about the current state of the pen. Justin Grimm is good! And he's roughly 3rd or 4th on the reliever depth chart at the moment, which is a good place for him to be. On the other hand, the names in front of him have a fair amount of uncertainty and Grimm himself has had inconsistency/injury problems, which underscores the concern I have about the bullpen. You can't guarantee consistency, but bullpen weaknesses have domino effects on the roles that fall under it. That's why I'm so gung ho about Jansen, since his relative certainty means that all the good but imperfect options below him are fighting for 8th inning duty at best. If you forego that and try to start the season with 4-5 guys in the Grimm/Ramos/Edwards mold, then you'll probably be fine, but you'll probably lose games figuring out who is going to shake out. It's basically the Dodgers rotation from this year. Now that's not a truly bad strategy that will probably work out by the time the playoffs roll around and you need more role certainty, but why do it when you don't have to?

I for one look forward to many, many more seasons of Cardinals fans clinging to the number of titles won before they were born.

[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet] Neither of those sound high at all, I would fall over myself trying to get Jansen at 5/80. This is the one part of the offseason that makes me a little nervous. I implicitly trust the front office's judgment, they have the best info on Rondon/Strop, even established relievers break(see Rondon/Strop), and there are a number of trade possibilities that could reinforce the bullpen. On the other hand, you have multiple inning incinerators sitting there for money in an offseason where there's little else to spend on, and I'm pretty sure Rondon(for as much as I love him) is right and truly dead. Don't put us through the 2016 Giants season please.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18114272/miller-going-war-mystery-robbie-ray The bolded is the answer you want, but this entire section(and article) is worth a moment to read.

What are you talking about

This made me curious, here's Steamer's wOBA estimate for those 4: .362, .345, .357, .396. There's a couple that seem pessimistic and a couple that might be optimistic considering the 2016 that McCutchen and Harper had. For comparison, the current Cubs top 4, Zobrist/Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo: .343, .367, .374, .391

What I'm saying is that even if you don't guarantee a GO5 champ a playoff spot, that's still better than their chances were with the BCS or 4 team CFP.

Right, but even if they know what's up, you still have the situation where one party has to take a leap of faith, lest Otani be trapped at prospect salaries or he leaves after a year with a team paying 25 million for the privilege.

I don't think it would in practice. The only way Otani agrees to it is if the contract basically grants him FA after a year(which may not even be possible). Otherwise a team could say 'welp, tough luck' once he signs and they have him on normal pre-arb prices. From a team's perspective, you need to be sure that you can ink that extension, lest you pay $25 million to smuggle Otani and then lose him. If they grant that immediate FA then that's a ton of risk/leverage placed in Otani's hands. Plus you have to probably collude with Otani/his team ahead of time so he actually knows that's what's going to happen and they proceed to post him.

I saw a tweet guessing that in return they're going to make sure they get a proper stadium.

Espinosa had a 1.122 OPS last June and didn't reach .660 in any other month. That is not what I expected. Going further back, since June of 2015, he has 861 PA with a .293 wOBA. Also he deserves to be punished for that heinous facial hair nonsense.

If you're going to go to 8 teams you have to give 1 spot to the Top Group of 5 Champion IMO. If there is 0 chance that a non-power 5+ND team can win a championship in an 8 team playoff, those non-power 5 teams shouldn't even be playing FBS football I'm not really following the logic here. Doesn't this slightly increase the chance of a Group of 5 team winning a title compared to the BCS or a 4 team playoff? The bar would be lower than ever to gain entry, and while sure it's unlikely they'd win 3 games, Group of 5 teams are also 0-0 in BCS title games and CFP games.

I think that narrative was probably a silly one from the start. Next year they lose nearly 50 million alone from Montero, Arrieta, and Lackey. Assuming Montgomery or a trade target fill one of those SP slots, you have a lot of money to work with to spend on starting pitching. Otani would have been the headliner, but guys like Darvish, Duffy, and Pineda could be worthy targets too. No need to borrow from today to afford tomorrow.

JJ Cooper confirmed that the current age limit applies to NPB players in the posting system, so unless there's a change that will be the case there as well and Otani can't come over til after 2019.

What the international cap curbs is bidding wars for Cubans, which were already on the decline because there are only so many MLB caliber players there. Plus with improving US-Cuba relations that dynamic is going to continue to evolve, it helps to restrict the near slave-trade around getting residency for those players, and this all assumes that the cap does include those players. Non-Cuban spending last year was less than 120M league wide, with the caps I imagine it'll come down a little, but probably not a ton. Plus these are the peak of speculative investments so while I'm super sympathetic to making sure minor leaguers are paid a living wage, I'm less concerned about the handful of 16 year olds who might have gotten 5 million instead of 2.

Also, new MLB players are barred from using smokeless tobacco(existing players grandfathered in), and starting in 2018 the season will start ~4 days earlier to build in more off days.

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Luxury tax threshold. Last year only 4 teams(Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers) were above the threshold, it looks likely that the Tigers will fall below and possibly the Red Sox and Yankees too, while no teams look likely to jump over it. Isn't this talking about draft pick compensation/loss for FA signings? The threshold he's referencing is the dollar value of the FA contract. He means the luxury tax threshold. Here's a quote from Stark's column: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18176138/mlb-owners-players-union-reach-tentative-deal-new-labor-contract

What is this threshold? Same as the previous first round/second round threshold? Luxury tax threshold. Last year only 4 teams(Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers) were above the threshold, it looks likely that the Tigers will fall below and possibly the Red Sox and Yankees too, while no teams look likely to jump over it.

reminds me of Mike Mulligan and his Steam Shovel

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- No roster changes, no 26th man, no limited September rosters - Luxury tax threshold rises to 195 million this year and escalates to 210 by the end of the 5 years

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