Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it's good to interrogate logic like this. Since he got to start full-time in 2023, Lugo is 9th of 83 qualified starters in ERA and 21st in FIP, which combined with his durability and in-start endurance makes him 13th in fWAR. I get the impulse to think of the stuff-monster pitcher as being able to reach a level of performance that others can't, and there are ways that can be true especially as it relates to playoff expectations. But in terms of results, I don't think it's reasonable to think that Cabrera and Alcantara have a chance to be a clear level above what Lugo has proven, at least not a chance high enough worth discussing. -
I think Cabrera + playoff starter is probably going to be prohibitively expensive, because Cabrera is likely to be more expensive than the playoff starter, who is unlikely to be particularly cheap.
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White Sox Season in Jeopardy
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in General Baseball Talk
MLB has a centralized ticketing platform anymore, so the email/credit card get blocked at a minimum. But I don't think it's like a wanted poster situation, more of a deterrent that if he tries his luck and goes to a game, if caught he's in some legitimate legal trouble. -
I agree with the sentiment, although with Keller and Palencia lined up for 5-8 of these last 8 outs there is some swing and miss thankfully.
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The Taillon comparison is more about what you expect out of Keller than what production he's replacing. The idea being is if he's next-gen Taillon and we're iffy about Taillon being a playoff starter now, then maybe you can aim higher. I'm a fan of Keller as long as the contract dilutes the price accordingly since I suspect there's another level to unlock(and there's still value in Younger Jameson), but it's not a slam dunk either.
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I can get that, but it circles back to either you're coming up with your own more vibesy expectations for all the teams to get to that distribution, or you're setting a bar insanely high to not have a roster be framed as a failure(setting aside the Cubs, that also excludes the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, etc). And the Cubs are playing at a 94 win pace so it's not as if we're just extrapolating the season so far.
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ZiPS projected one (1) team in MLB to win more than 90 games: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-regretful-2025-zips-projections/
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Yeah I think that if anyone told us on Opening Day that at the midway point of the season that Steele and Shota would have missed a combined 20 starts due to injury, even if we also told you that PCA went supernova we would not have predicted the team would be playing at a 94 win pace. Shota coming back will help, the schedule easing off will help(33 of the 64 games after the break are against >.500 teams, Cardinals have 43 and the Brewers 45), the deadline addition(s) will help, and there's still some farm contributions they may yet mine.
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The Club World Cup has been great, and a vast improvement on the previous version. Also some games are on TBS/TNT and all games are streaming free on DAZN.
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Yes, that's how that works, the offense does well when the wind is howling out and poorly when it is howling in.
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The Cubs have scored 32 runs in their last 5 games
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Thank you for asking No it is not
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
I doubt that there's a team itching to give Candelario a MLB deal after he clears waivers, so giving him an audition to show he's healthy in Iowa seems like a pretty low risk move that could pay dividends if he is able to get right. He's a fairly uniquely good fit if the bat returns to being playable. -
Setting aside the lightly masked stick-to-sports-isms, I do think that article exaggerates the baseball related impact. To the degree there is a significant problem, I think the steps to manage are fairly simple and impactful. Define criteria for delays/postponements like Matt mentioned, and play fewer day games in the hottest months. The latter may bump into eventual logistics problems with the length of the season given off day/travel needs, but still far from intractable.
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Normal caveats(lists are made up and don't matter, etc) aside, putting EDLC and especially Chourio that high(and above PCA) is bonkers. EDLC's ceiling has been greatly exaggerated by a season long prank from OAA last year, and Chourio is trending like Aldi-brand PCA more or less across the board right now. And I'm not even overly bullish on PCA compared to most(don't think an extension is a great idea, expect offensive regression, etc)
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Very curious why you'd describe Smith as the high floor trade candidate and Caissie as the high ceiling. Even ignoring Smith's 2025 since we couldn't have had that information, I would've described them the opposite.
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Even in his hot streaks at AAA there's still a lot of swing and miss with Caissie. I think you're still looking at someone who is going to have to stretch to be a first division regular, especially as his body continues maturing and playing OF becomes more of a stretch. If you have someone who is gonna value him more than that, you gotta pull the trigger.
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What I said is true regardless of if Bregman opts out or not, and we have very recent experience that the opt out that is obvious in June can very much not be obvious in November. Also Bregman(or any bat) does not change the Cubs ceiling nearly as much as acquiring pitching with those resources.
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It is not WS or bust. It (basically) never is. That said, if Shaw is scuffling this badly in a month I think you do look into ways to hedge him at the deadline. That decidedly does not look like trading for Bregman, which is a financial/talent commitment they should not be making in the offense at any position. But ideally something like a platoon hedge(to stick with the Red Sox theme, maybe Abraham Toro), or a Turner upgrade that plays a more viable 3B.
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there's no reason to think Swanson is broken with RISP specifically, you don't want to make lineup decisions based on trying to catch a falling knife, this stuff evens out
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The options are Swanson, Kelly, Nico, and Shaw. Swanson is gonna hit for the most power and probably the most productivity overall of that group.
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The same reason if you catch a ball that bounces off the green monster it is not an out, the wall is a part of the field of play like the ground is for deciding whether you caught a ball on the fly.
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Thank you for asking no it is not
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
we're all trying to figure out who did this -
I think you need to be slightly more intentional because you hope for 10-25 postseason innings from them too, but I agree that the idea that there's an enormous cliff coming has gotten exaggerated.
