Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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there is some language about bracing yourself when falling, even though he's already on the ground and doing so in order to stand up quickly. Ironically this wasn't even the most egregious non-penalty decision of the match, there was a first half sequence where the US should've gotten a PK twice in 10 seconds, in particular Agyemang just got bowled/shoved over from behind 2 yards from goal.
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No. It's especially not fair when that player is Ian Happ with his track record and peripherals. And it's especially egregious in its insensitivity to carry on about it while the team leads 11-0. -
The complaint was "he's having a terrible season and definitely shouldn't be leading off any more", which is 1) objectively false when looking at RESULTS 2) imploring the team to do something based on what they think will happen, which is very much not a RESULT
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If we can speedrun the way these arguments normally go: * Happ's 2025 hasn't been as good as previous years, though far from disastrous * There's nothing to indicate this is a new norm or that he's not able to turn things around on a dime, he has always had periods of hot and cold * Changing players position in the lineup for every 15 game deviation from their norm is silly and counterproductive * For whatever reason Happ attracts this type of laser focus on benching/trading/dropping him when he slumps, it's like some folks refuse to admit he's good so every stretch of poor form is validation that matches with their false priors
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We appear to have gone from “It’s not a secret that Left handed pitchers are the cubs kryptonite” to “hey we’re just noticing things here” in a very short period of time
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This is working backwards from vibes you get when being annoyed the Cubs don’t score 6 every game. “The Cubs have been mediocre against LHP over a 30 game span” is not a thing to worry about, and absent some very compelling specifics, there’s no reason to think that 30 games is more predictive than the previous 50
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The Cubs are 6th in MLB in wRC+ against LHP, 2nd in the NL.
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It's gambling
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No that’s definitely not it, I live in a suburb and go downtown 20 times a year for events and don’t feel unsafe in the slightest. Maybe next time you’re there exhale a bit and leave the dog whistles at home.
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The surgeon is the boy's mother
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There are 10 qualified 3B on pace for more than 3.7 fWAR. There's another 2 that aren't quite qualified and are splitting time elsewhere(Barger and Chisholm) on pace for at least that much.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's not fWAR, WAR is just the measure used to express Fangraphs' projections. As for those projections, the conservative nature is just how those projections work. It may help to think of it not as a guess at what the season will happen, but as the most likely outcome for each individual team. But the fun of sports is that teams and players will inevitably not match their projection, so the projections have use to be an objective measure of team/player quality, but they also aren't giving you a confident answer to 'how many games will this team win'. -
Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You have to add from two different pages but best I can tell the Cubs are 2nd in season to date fWAR as well. But to your question, the simplest way to think about how they differ is they are using different defensive metrics(fWAR's are generally better), and bWAR tends to be more reflective of results(especially for pitchers) while fWAR's is more predictive but can in smaller samples diverge from actual results. The easy difference to conceptualize is bWAR's pitching WAR is looking at ERA while fWAR is looking at FIP. Generally speaking I don't really have much use for bWAR, though it's fine for stuff like HOF arguments. -
Very similar to McMahon in that you can reasonably imagine a development win that makes him a solid player that's good value, but his contract is a high enough AAV(and a very long term commitment in Hayes' case) that I don't think it'll be practical to make a trade happen Pittsburgh would agree to. One other slightly positive note, even when Hayes hasn't been a plus offensive player in previous years, he still hit lefties well. So if this year is a write off for some easily sorted reason, he would be an interesting if unconventional Turner replacement.
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The heat doesn't help but it is not the primary reason. I was at a weeknight game earlier this month and it was maybe half full, and that was largely because Royals fans were at least 40% of the crowd.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
A not entirely fair but not entirely unfair observation from today's games: Seth Lugo: 5.2 IP, 0 R, 8 Ks vs the Dodgers Sandy Alcantara 6 IP, 7 R, 4 K vs the Dbacks -
Smith also is running a .365 BABIP, which is not going to continue, at which point he'll need his K rate and his power production to move in a more positive direction. He's acquitted himself better than I thought he would so far, and good for him on that, I'm a Cam Smith fan. But at the same time he hasn't done anything to meaningfully change his future projection, especially since he's already gotten moved off the infield.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it's good to interrogate logic like this. Since he got to start full-time in 2023, Lugo is 9th of 83 qualified starters in ERA and 21st in FIP, which combined with his durability and in-start endurance makes him 13th in fWAR. I get the impulse to think of the stuff-monster pitcher as being able to reach a level of performance that others can't, and there are ways that can be true especially as it relates to playoff expectations. But in terms of results, I don't think it's reasonable to think that Cabrera and Alcantara have a chance to be a clear level above what Lugo has proven, at least not a chance high enough worth discussing. -
I think Cabrera + playoff starter is probably going to be prohibitively expensive, because Cabrera is likely to be more expensive than the playoff starter, who is unlikely to be particularly cheap.
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White Sox Season in Jeopardy
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in General Baseball Talk
MLB has a centralized ticketing platform anymore, so the email/credit card get blocked at a minimum. But I don't think it's like a wanted poster situation, more of a deterrent that if he tries his luck and goes to a game, if caught he's in some legitimate legal trouble. -
I agree with the sentiment, although with Keller and Palencia lined up for 5-8 of these last 8 outs there is some swing and miss thankfully.
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The Taillon comparison is more about what you expect out of Keller than what production he's replacing. The idea being is if he's next-gen Taillon and we're iffy about Taillon being a playoff starter now, then maybe you can aim higher. I'm a fan of Keller as long as the contract dilutes the price accordingly since I suspect there's another level to unlock(and there's still value in Younger Jameson), but it's not a slam dunk either.
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I can get that, but it circles back to either you're coming up with your own more vibesy expectations for all the teams to get to that distribution, or you're setting a bar insanely high to not have a roster be framed as a failure(setting aside the Cubs, that also excludes the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, etc). And the Cubs are playing at a 94 win pace so it's not as if we're just extrapolating the season so far.
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ZiPS projected one (1) team in MLB to win more than 90 games: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-regretful-2025-zips-projections/
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Yeah I think that if anyone told us on Opening Day that at the midway point of the season that Steele and Shota would have missed a combined 20 starts due to injury, even if we also told you that PCA went supernova we would not have predicted the team would be playing at a 94 win pace. Shota coming back will help, the schedule easing off will help(33 of the 64 games after the break are against >.500 teams, Cardinals have 43 and the Brewers 45), the deadline addition(s) will help, and there's still some farm contributions they may yet mine.
