Transmogrified Tiger
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
this guy here is dead -
Probably for the best to leave this part out when you proudly proclaim you don't know how expected stats work. Don't want to engage with that type of thing? Cool, everyone can fan their own way. But stridently carrying on about how the thing you refuse to try to understand is nonsense isn't it either.
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The Chicago Cubs Could Go "All-In" At The Deadline
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wouldn't couch it as a desperation to save his job, if he makes even slight upgrades and doesn't go all in the team is favored to win the division and 90+ games, which is likely to get him extended. But I am very leery of the idea that now is a good time for Jed to be extra aggressive, if anything given the prospect capital they've handed out in the last 12 months I think you could say it's nearly the opposite.- 40 replies
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- 2025 trade deadline
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Another thing to keep in our heads is that large gaps in comparing teams is only so much in nominal terms. The difference between the 2025 Cubs current K% and being in the top 5 is one K every 33ish hitters, or 3 K's every 2 games or so. It's the magnitude of difference that when you think about it in those terms, is fairly easily offset by differences in batted ball type, contact quality, walk reduction, health, etc. Sure enough, the Cubs are 2nd in BB%, and as a result, 9th in WHIP. -
One of the hardest roster building things to communicate is this somewhat contradictory idea. You cannot win in the modern game without a steady stream of pre-arb players, and without a couple of them being very good on top of that. But as a probability you should bet on every one of them to fall short. So you have to balance that idea that every individual prospect is a losing bet, but you have to make a lot of those bets, because not making them will lead to failure too. The Cubs plan on being good this year, and they plan on being good next year and the year after that. Because of that, they have to be willing to deal with the imperfections that come with development in order to keep that up. Shaw might never turn the corner, and that's a risk. They've traded for 3B each of the previous two deadlines and both of them were notably worse with the Cubs(Paredes to a degree that some people thought he was not good at all), so there's risk in that avenue as well. They'll likely do something to hedge Shaw's production, but especially considering the buffer afforded by being one of the clear Top 3 offenses in the game, and that Shaw's defense/baserunning have been excellent, there is never a better opportunity for a competitive org to let someone work through those growing pains.
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He went 6th overall with the 8th highest bonus, so I think a number of people did! I think the takeaway we should have is that fans have always had an over-emphasis on potential/ceiling, and in the 2020s player development has been so revolutionized that draft-day proclamations about potential/ceiling have never been less relevant.
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Seems like a good time to remember that everyone was terrified of the Cubs drafting Jacob Wilson because he was thought to be a low ceiling option, and he's starting the All-Star game at SS 24 months later with a 135 wRC+ and 5+ WAR pace.
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Is it notable that Bremner isn't name-checked despite seemingly (to my uneducated eye) fitting that power pitcher profile? Or is there maybe an assumption he's a longshot to make it to 17 now?
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there is some language about bracing yourself when falling, even though he's already on the ground and doing so in order to stand up quickly. Ironically this wasn't even the most egregious non-penalty decision of the match, there was a first half sequence where the US should've gotten a PK twice in 10 seconds, in particular Agyemang just got bowled/shoved over from behind 2 yards from goal.
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No. It's especially not fair when that player is Ian Happ with his track record and peripherals. And it's especially egregious in its insensitivity to carry on about it while the team leads 11-0.
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The complaint was "he's having a terrible season and definitely shouldn't be leading off any more", which is 1) objectively false when looking at RESULTS 2) imploring the team to do something based on what they think will happen, which is very much not a RESULT
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If we can speedrun the way these arguments normally go: * Happ's 2025 hasn't been as good as previous years, though far from disastrous * There's nothing to indicate this is a new norm or that he's not able to turn things around on a dime, he has always had periods of hot and cold * Changing players position in the lineup for every 15 game deviation from their norm is silly and counterproductive * For whatever reason Happ attracts this type of laser focus on benching/trading/dropping him when he slumps, it's like some folks refuse to admit he's good so every stretch of poor form is validation that matches with their false priors
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We appear to have gone from “It’s not a secret that Left handed pitchers are the cubs kryptonite” to “hey we’re just noticing things here” in a very short period of time
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This is working backwards from vibes you get when being annoyed the Cubs don’t score 6 every game. “The Cubs have been mediocre against LHP over a 30 game span” is not a thing to worry about, and absent some very compelling specifics, there’s no reason to think that 30 games is more predictive than the previous 50
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The Cubs are 6th in MLB in wRC+ against LHP, 2nd in the NL.
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It's gambling
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No that’s definitely not it, I live in a suburb and go downtown 20 times a year for events and don’t feel unsafe in the slightest. Maybe next time you’re there exhale a bit and leave the dog whistles at home.
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The surgeon is the boy's mother
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There are 10 qualified 3B on pace for more than 3.7 fWAR. There's another 2 that aren't quite qualified and are splitting time elsewhere(Barger and Chisholm) on pace for at least that much.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's not fWAR, WAR is just the measure used to express Fangraphs' projections. As for those projections, the conservative nature is just how those projections work. It may help to think of it not as a guess at what the season will happen, but as the most likely outcome for each individual team. But the fun of sports is that teams and players will inevitably not match their projection, so the projections have use to be an objective measure of team/player quality, but they also aren't giving you a confident answer to 'how many games will this team win'. -
Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You have to add from two different pages but best I can tell the Cubs are 2nd in season to date fWAR as well. But to your question, the simplest way to think about how they differ is they are using different defensive metrics(fWAR's are generally better), and bWAR tends to be more reflective of results(especially for pitchers) while fWAR's is more predictive but can in smaller samples diverge from actual results. The easy difference to conceptualize is bWAR's pitching WAR is looking at ERA while fWAR is looking at FIP. Generally speaking I don't really have much use for bWAR, though it's fine for stuff like HOF arguments. -
Very similar to McMahon in that you can reasonably imagine a development win that makes him a solid player that's good value, but his contract is a high enough AAV(and a very long term commitment in Hayes' case) that I don't think it'll be practical to make a trade happen Pittsburgh would agree to. One other slightly positive note, even when Hayes hasn't been a plus offensive player in previous years, he still hit lefties well. So if this year is a write off for some easily sorted reason, he would be an interesting if unconventional Turner replacement.
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The heat doesn't help but it is not the primary reason. I was at a weeknight game earlier this month and it was maybe half full, and that was largely because Royals fans were at least 40% of the crowd.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
A not entirely fair but not entirely unfair observation from today's games: Seth Lugo: 5.2 IP, 0 R, 8 Ks vs the Dodgers Sandy Alcantara 6 IP, 7 R, 4 K vs the Dbacks -
Smith also is running a .365 BABIP, which is not going to continue, at which point he'll need his K rate and his power production to move in a more positive direction. He's acquitted himself better than I thought he would so far, and good for him on that, I'm a Cam Smith fan. But at the same time he hasn't done anything to meaningfully change his future projection, especially since he's already gotten moved off the infield.
