Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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wonder what the payout for 'Justin Turner Steals 3rd' props were tonight -
Not worth it's own thread, but worth noting. Since May 1, Justin Turner is hitting .319/.340/.511 for a 136 wRC+ against LHP
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Boy is this really overwrought. I understand Brown skepticism and don't have strong opinions if they decided on a different starter, but this is pretty conveniently ignoring Brown's MLB proof of concept last season along with his pedigree as reason for optimism. Also trying to contrast the Cubs' pitching approach as at odds with the Brewers going and getting Quinn Priester is pretty absurd given the bang average output Priester is providing while the Cubs have similarly gotten that from less with the Reas and Flexens of the world this year. Not to mention that the urgency of the rotation need requiring Brown happened so recently and is likely so short lived that we're talking about a surface area of 2 outings. And then the whole team 'scrambling' and 'position of weakness' nonsense? The Cubs have the 2nd best record in the NL this month, if the Brewers decide to play at a 162 win pace for the rest of the season there's very little they can do about that. More likely, they're hitting a local maximum, and while it obviously cuts down on margin for error and makes their upcoming H2H games more important, it doesn't change anything about the team's roster build approach for the deadline and beyond.
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The predictability of unhinged doomerism every time the Cubs commit the atrocity of not winning for 48 consecutive hours is hilarious. Even the best team in baseball will lose 60 games this year, two full months of nothing but blowouts, blown leads, getting shut down by mediocre starters, the whole lot. It's gonna happen, and yet every time it surprises some folks like a stranger smacked them in the face.
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Is Castro not one of the top handful of rentals? Especially on the position player side? In any case I generally agree. I think there's going to be some clear aggression, but Jed has made comments on multiple occasions about not being beholden to recency bias(Iglesias and Finnegan would be good examples), as well as valuing more than just this season. Because of the complications involving Shaw and the variability of RP, that means that I especially expect the main SP addition to have team control beyond this year. -
Since the start of June Pressly has a 21% K%, 2.72 FIP, and 18% K-BB%. He is not a perfect reliever but he's being used as roughly the 4th or 5th in the pecking order, which is fine. People are letting early impressions where he truly was not striking people out color their opinions way more than his actual performance in recent months(or his years of past excellence)
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Keller is down, Palencia is saved to close, and Pomeranz is a better fit(theoretically apparently) for all the lefties at the top of the order. That means your alternatives are Flexen, Kriske, Roberts, and Brasier. The only one you can remotely say are preferable to Pressly is Brasier, who pitched yesterday and might not be as sharp.
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Having him face the top of the order and 3 of 4 lefties instead seems like sound logic to me
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It's a give and take between that and other factors. You move PCA down you have a number of RHH in a row, and other teams have their version of Brasier or Tyson Miller last year that can mow down RHH pretty well, especially if we're talking about non-elite bats like Kelly, Swanson, Shaw, etc
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I think it's a little bit of both, he's never been a split neutral guy, and his adjustments at the MLB level are about trying to be the best hitter he can against RHP even if it means he doesn't get to face as many LHP.
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It's just not that simple. Especially in 2025 and doubly so with a manager like Counsell running the team, there is a lot more sophistication to these decisions. First and foremost, Busch is almost certainly going to play today! He'll get 1-2 at bats instead of 4, so the surface area of what is so upsetting is limited to facing Crochet 1-3 times. Busch's numbers are so good partially *because* he gets shielded from the Crochet's of the world. Matt has written before about how Busch's swing path has been optimized to handle RHP approaches with this in mind. He plays 1B which is the easiest position to find a short side platoon bat. If you think Turner is completely cooked that's fair, but even a diminished Turner is outhitting Busch against LHP by a huge margin!
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If the Cubs play .500 ball the rest of the year they'll win 91 games
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anyone else say Shota's name like this sometimes No just me okay I guess that's fair
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RBrujanI
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The odds of him swinging through a change up in that at bat were roughly 8000%
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Shaw has also been particularly poor against sinkers, and with Shota on the mound 3B defense is lower priority
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I think PCA somewhat intentionally calmed his movements like the ball was going to drop, but also because he didn't have to move much further. The runner underestimated how hard the ball was hit, and then misinterpreted that calming as PCA pulling up. One of the replays shows him looking out and then digging harder for 3rd before he realized he misread it and U-turning to 2nd.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-18-25
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
He was spotted on the Mesa backfields earlier this week so probably just a matter of a couple days? -
All Star Gam(e) Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CubinNY's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Here's the solution: After 9 innings if it's tied, you play a 1 inning mini-game, and repeat that until there's a winner. -
4 college hitters, all of them with more walks than Ks and Conrad the only one with a K% above 7%. Really think there's something to the Bat Control hypothesis
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Thinking the org feels like the raw material they're optimizing for is bat control, and they can help squeeze some better outcomes through mechanics and swing decisions better than they can keep guys on barrel(especially against MLB stuff and gameplans).
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Love this pick. What’s his name? What position does he play?
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-11-25
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Over the last 2 combined full seasons, only 10 qualified players (roughly 9%) had a K rate of 28+%. 4 of them had wRC+ of less than 100, only 3 were above 110. It’s just an extremely rare profile to have repeated success. -
Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's because he's pitching tomorrow
