Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Having him face the top of the order and 3 of 4 lefties instead seems like sound logic to me -
It's a give and take between that and other factors. You move PCA down you have a number of RHH in a row, and other teams have their version of Brasier or Tyson Miller last year that can mow down RHH pretty well, especially if we're talking about non-elite bats like Kelly, Swanson, Shaw, etc
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I think it's a little bit of both, he's never been a split neutral guy, and his adjustments at the MLB level are about trying to be the best hitter he can against RHP even if it means he doesn't get to face as many LHP.
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It's just not that simple. Especially in 2025 and doubly so with a manager like Counsell running the team, there is a lot more sophistication to these decisions. First and foremost, Busch is almost certainly going to play today! He'll get 1-2 at bats instead of 4, so the surface area of what is so upsetting is limited to facing Crochet 1-3 times. Busch's numbers are so good partially *because* he gets shielded from the Crochet's of the world. Matt has written before about how Busch's swing path has been optimized to handle RHP approaches with this in mind. He plays 1B which is the easiest position to find a short side platoon bat. If you think Turner is completely cooked that's fair, but even a diminished Turner is outhitting Busch against LHP by a huge margin!
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If the Cubs play .500 ball the rest of the year they'll win 91 games
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anyone else say Shota's name like this sometimes No just me okay I guess that's fair
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RBrujanI
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The odds of him swinging through a change up in that at bat were roughly 8000%
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Shaw has also been particularly poor against sinkers, and with Shota on the mound 3B defense is lower priority
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I think PCA somewhat intentionally calmed his movements like the ball was going to drop, but also because he didn't have to move much further. The runner underestimated how hard the ball was hit, and then misinterpreted that calming as PCA pulling up. One of the replays shows him looking out and then digging harder for 3rd before he realized he misread it and U-turning to 2nd.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-18-25
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
He was spotted on the Mesa backfields earlier this week so probably just a matter of a couple days? -
All Star Gam(e) Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CubinNY's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Here's the solution: After 9 innings if it's tied, you play a 1 inning mini-game, and repeat that until there's a winner. -
4 college hitters, all of them with more walks than Ks and Conrad the only one with a K% above 7%. Really think there's something to the Bat Control hypothesis
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Thinking the org feels like the raw material they're optimizing for is bat control, and they can help squeeze some better outcomes through mechanics and swing decisions better than they can keep guys on barrel(especially against MLB stuff and gameplans).
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Love this pick. What’s his name? What position does he play?
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-11-25
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Over the last 2 combined full seasons, only 10 qualified players (roughly 9%) had a K rate of 28+%. 4 of them had wRC+ of less than 100, only 3 were above 110. It’s just an extremely rare profile to have repeated success. -
Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's because he's pitching tomorrow -
Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
this guy here is dead -
Probably for the best to leave this part out when you proudly proclaim you don't know how expected stats work. Don't want to engage with that type of thing? Cool, everyone can fan their own way. But stridently carrying on about how the thing you refuse to try to understand is nonsense isn't it either.
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The Chicago Cubs Could Go "All-In" At The Deadline
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wouldn't couch it as a desperation to save his job, if he makes even slight upgrades and doesn't go all in the team is favored to win the division and 90+ games, which is likely to get him extended. But I am very leery of the idea that now is a good time for Jed to be extra aggressive, if anything given the prospect capital they've handed out in the last 12 months I think you could say it's nearly the opposite.- 40 replies
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Starting rotation options available now
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mul21's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Another thing to keep in our heads is that large gaps in comparing teams is only so much in nominal terms. The difference between the 2025 Cubs current K% and being in the top 5 is one K every 33ish hitters, or 3 K's every 2 games or so. It's the magnitude of difference that when you think about it in those terms, is fairly easily offset by differences in batted ball type, contact quality, walk reduction, health, etc. Sure enough, the Cubs are 2nd in BB%, and as a result, 9th in WHIP. -
One of the hardest roster building things to communicate is this somewhat contradictory idea. You cannot win in the modern game without a steady stream of pre-arb players, and without a couple of them being very good on top of that. But as a probability you should bet on every one of them to fall short. So you have to balance that idea that every individual prospect is a losing bet, but you have to make a lot of those bets, because not making them will lead to failure too. The Cubs plan on being good this year, and they plan on being good next year and the year after that. Because of that, they have to be willing to deal with the imperfections that come with development in order to keep that up. Shaw might never turn the corner, and that's a risk. They've traded for 3B each of the previous two deadlines and both of them were notably worse with the Cubs(Paredes to a degree that some people thought he was not good at all), so there's risk in that avenue as well. They'll likely do something to hedge Shaw's production, but especially considering the buffer afforded by being one of the clear Top 3 offenses in the game, and that Shaw's defense/baserunning have been excellent, there is never a better opportunity for a competitive org to let someone work through those growing pains.
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He went 6th overall with the 8th highest bonus, so I think a number of people did! I think the takeaway we should have is that fans have always had an over-emphasis on potential/ceiling, and in the 2020s player development has been so revolutionized that draft-day proclamations about potential/ceiling have never been less relevant.
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Seems like a good time to remember that everyone was terrified of the Cubs drafting Jacob Wilson because he was thought to be a low ceiling option, and he's starting the All-Star game at SS 24 months later with a 135 wRC+ and 5+ WAR pace.
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Is it notable that Bremner isn't name-checked despite seemingly (to my uneducated eye) fitting that power pitcher profile? Or is there maybe an assumption he's a longshot to make it to 17 now?
