Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO. I don't know that I would value Willams lower than them right now. I like using ERA+ to evaluate pitchers (quick, easy to get, relatively levels playing field, etc.). Here are their numbers: Williams: 100 (league average) Wang: 111 Backe: 87 Bedard: 104 Marquis: 103 I personally think that HOU ERA+ was somewhat artificially low because of having a very good pitching staff and a rather poor offense. If I look at the list I would be inclined to agree with you, but then let's throw their AGES in there (in 2005): Williams (23), Marquis (26), Bedard (26), Backe (27), Wang (25). I am not saying that Williams is particularly "better" than those players listed, but that given that Williams is as likely to improve as any of them I would not put him "a tier below" them right now. While K/BB ratio does bode decently for Bedard in particular, those are the kind of numbers that I think improve with age. If I am Philly right now I am saying, "Look, JH, you have plenty of starting pitching. I would be willing to deal you Abreu straight up for Zambrano" and hope JH bites. It's worth pointing out that Williams was significantly better as a Cub. As a Giant: 64 ERA+ As a Cub: 109 ERA+ Total: 100 ERA+ As a Cub he was better than everyone except Wang, with not much difference between them.