Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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I only read the Bleacher Nation summary, but two things stuck out to me: 1. The optimism (especially relative to the Bellinger convo) that Hendricks will be back. Especially with the option this is a pretty early offseason decision, and unless spending is gonna be much higher than expected(or Stroman opts out), Hendricks has a lot in common with the Hamels option from 2019. Worth bringing back at the likely cost but does make other upgrades harder given payroll constraints. You give Hendricks 8 figures, and then you're probably only able to do two out of the 3 potential big spending avenues(Frontline SP, Big Bat 1, Big Bat 2) 2. The talk about finding a singular defensive home for Morel. Especially given the current roster, it seems like that points toward him getting reps at 3B, which would make for an interesting dynamic considering there isn't a strong incumbent there and several of the big bat options may need or want reps at DH.
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Yeah, they've done their fair share of that with rentals too, Machado and Scherzer being the two biggest I can recall.
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Trea Turner is probably the best example, but I'm not seeing that being something they do habitually. They are willing to let guys walk in general, beyond the short term of Turner you have Seager, Ryu, Jansen, Justin Turner, Pederson, Bellinger.
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There is not, and definitely not related to position. This is the most clear if you look at comparable offensive seasons that span his positions. 2005: LF/3B, 146 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR 2007: 3B, 142 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR 2009: 1B, 143 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR 2014: 1B, 148 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR
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Having (by far) the best offensive season of his career and being graded as a playable 3B in the other made a difference yes. The fact that you grouped multiple full-time 1B seasons as his 'before' without realizing makes the point. Pre-FA Cabrera was consistently a 5-6 win 3B/OF. After his trade and extension they pretty quickly gave up on him playing 3B and there was no material change to his fWAR. If you think Soto is going to be a better hitter than expected by staying in LF, or (more likely) that he's not actually a terrible LF then yes it makes more sense for him to play there. If you agree with his recent defensive metric history that he's a horrible outfielder, then there's no value reason to play him there if you don't have to.
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He was a full-time first baseman from 2008 to 2011.
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The best corollary to Soto's situation is probably Miguel Cabrera, who was an elite bat who similarly reached 6 years of service at an extremely young age, and was a very bad defender at both 3B and the OF. Take a look at his Fangraphs page and without scrolling down, see if you can spot the year he gave up 3B/OF and started playing 1B full time: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-cabrera/1744/stats?position=1B/3B You can't easily do so from that view because he didn't have a material change to his WAR, thanks to no longer hemorrhaging defensive value.
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As Bertz said, the positional adjustment between corner OF and 1B is half a win. The last 2 years Soto has been a -10 OF, and given his body type despite his young age it's not something that's likely to get better before it gets worse. Therefore in order for Soto to be more valuable as an LF, you have to believe he is either not a -10 OF(an increasingly tough sell since both OAA and DRS agree about the magnitude), or you have to believe that he'd be worse than a -5 1B. Neither of those are indefensible positions, even if I don't agree with them. But also neither are worthy of the dismissive insistence that no one could possibly pay $X for a 1B(and as an aside, using total contract value for this conversation is especially silly given the ages we'd be comparing).
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I'm really confused by this idea that because you've paid Soto all this money you must play him in LF even if it doesn't make sense to do so. This isn't a 'well he's way more valuable in the OF but we have Ian Happ so what're you gonna do' situation, though it is true that Soto absolutely should not play corner OF regularly on the current Cubs roster(and Happ & Suzuki are not getting traded). Independent of the rest of the roster, Soto is a horrific defensive outfielder. He should be playing 1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*. If you don't think he's worth that money then I would understand but disagree(his consistency of bat + age at FA is pretty unprecedented), but this insistence that no dummy would ever play Soto anywhere but the OF is bizarre.
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Welcome @FullCountTommy! Enjoyed reading both of these. A couple other relievers that have caught my eye that aren't necessarily the closer/relief ace level many of the above are, but could make for worthy targets nonetheless: James Karinchak - He's arb eligible, fell down the pecking order with a subpar 2023, but still has the elite swing and miss that made him a closer candidate as recently as 2022. Main question is if he's healthy, a shoulder injury last year and a drop in velocity at the end of this year make it a gamble Hunter Harvey - The only thing better than having one elite strike throwing reliever is having more than one. He'd have a fairly substantial player cost but probably not to the Bednar level, and the Nats should be open to moving him given that he's Arb 2 and they aren't going to be good any time soon -
2023 Wild Card Round
Transmogrified Tiger replied to We Got The Whole 9's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Woodruff's shoulder asploded -
2023 Wild Card Round
Transmogrified Tiger replied to We Got The Whole 9's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This made me curious so I tried spot checking, there's a few guys with a couple more games than him(Mookie, Chris Taylor, Seager, Jansen), and then a handful of guys with 30+ more than him: Correa, Altuve, Bregman, Justin Turner -
2023 Wild Card Round
Transmogrified Tiger replied to We Got The Whole 9's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Split this off so it's easier to find in-game chatter. This Brewers/DBacks game has had some bombs. -
I think 'fat and slow' is the wrong lens to look in terms of aging, though it probably is somewhat correlated to the actual thing that helps these players age: Hit tool. The recent 30+ 1B to buck the 2010s trend of 1B aging cliffs were guys running high BABIPs and regularly flirting with .300. That's where the Alonso risk comes from IMO, not the fact that he's got poor sprint speed or a belly.
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Here's the argument for Alonso, in my view: The Cubs have above-replacement efficiency in a lot of places, but the thing they need more than additional defensive value(especially without Bellinger) is a star level bat. Alonso could provide that without costing as much money as Soto, Bellinger, or Ohtani, and have a lower trade cost than Soto too. As with Bellinger, Alonso is an easy QO decision so any trade cost you can partially make back through the QO, which is noteworthy as the big contract rolling off next year's books(Stroman) can't be QO'd. Or you extend him and have that player for longer than their trade cost implied. Alonso's WAR is held down significantly by his defense, which OAA hates. As with catchers, there's an argument to be made that 1B defense isn't perfectly calibrated by metrics, and his career wRC+ with averageish defense is close to a 4 win player Alonso's home park is quietly one of the most pitcher friendly in the game, and he could see an uptick from not playing so many games at Citi Field. Similarly, he's only ever played for one organization, and one that is not heralded for player development, so fresh coaching perspective could conceivably lead to improvement(note: this can go the other way, e.g. Taillon's first half)
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I like that this series of moves doesn't rely on simply signing 2 of the 5 top FA, I think too often we fall in that trap without considering why it so rarely happens. That's still probably gonna end up being well beyond where Jed has the flexbility to go though. If you had to cut 30 million out of that offseason, what would you prioritize? Also, is there something in particular you see in Wendle? When you said the name my ears perked up because LH 3B options are not abundant, but checking on his last couple years the bat looks pretty dire at this point.
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Trevor Bauer Continues to get Worse
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in General Baseball Talk
Get ready to keep learning Japanese, buddy -
This error off and on since 10/1
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brian707's topic in North Side Baseball Issues & Suggestions
+1, I've also seen 'MySQL server has gone away' or something with similar wording as the specific message aside from 'connection refused', I'll try to grab a screenshot if I see it again. EDIT: -
PCA went 0 for 14 with 7 K, I'm not changing my enthusiasm for him as a prospect but he was unequivocally a failure at the plate in that limited time. Similarly, Mervis may have had some bad luck on batted balls, but his xwOBA was still only .318 and he struck out 32% of the time. He was bad regardless of the batted ball luck. Canario I would not categorize as falling on his face, but he played the exact amount he should have.
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Article: This Season Was a Failure
Transmogrified Tiger replied to matto1233's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Saying that you expected X and then listing all the things that happened above expectation (without mention of things that happened below expectation) and labeling the season a failure for it doesn't seem like a very useful or rigorous exercise.- 1 reply
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- justin steele
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Only 6 RF were > .350, one of them being Seiya. If PCA hits enough to force the issue, you play Bellinger in RF(his arm strength is 86th percentile) and DH Seiya more, not worry about it when an OF has a knock or needs rest, etc. Bellinger being able to eat up 15-20 games at 1B as needed is a bonus. I can see the argument for trading PCA instead of Morel(who unless he spends all winter improving his hands at 3B is the loser in this scenario), but I don't think the presence of Bellinger necessitates a trade of PCA for value reasons. Only 27 qualified hitters had a > 125 wRC+ this year, only 44 if you loosen to 400+ PA. If you can add/keep one of them, you do it to stack good players and enjoy the deeper offense until some inevitable amount of misfortune(injury, PCA's failure) makes the positional inefficiency irrelevant.
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I'm not signing Bellinger to be the 135 wRC+ guy he was this year, though I think he'll be a whole lot closer to that than his xwOBA. As for the defensive value bit, to me it comes down to the fact that his flexibility carries a lot of value too, being able to put out a better lineup day in and day out. I'm not saying those are equivalent, but considering Bellinger's age I'm not worried about the potential problem of him playing RF or 1B more often if PCA is good. The if being the operating thing here, because after his call up there should be little expectation that PCA is playing every day prior til Memorial Day or so, and even that carries risk. I'm not gonna pass on a potential stud 28 y/o FA you have a QO & familiarity advantage in signing because he might be a little expensive for his production *if* another prospect pans out.
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One thing I've been thinking about the last couple weeks is that we have two years of data on Seiya in RF now and while it's not a particular problem, he's not been a strong defensive asset. Given that PCA has demonstrated he is not going to be ready to carry an every day offensive load from opening day(and while I hope not, possibly not ever) and no entrenched DH option on the roster, I think you can make a compelling argument to sign Bellinger without even considering his 1B ability. Though that 1B ability may still be relevant/useful depending on other moves.
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He's a weird dude so I'm not gonna be floored if he does something against the grain, but the signs are he's not going to.
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I had them at 84 wins, so in aggregate this is about what I expected, though it was a very frustrating way to get there. I'm encouraged that they simultaneously showed some proficiency in their acquisitions(and can keep existing players) while also not hemorrhaging all the value after the year and being on a treadmill to maintain the status quo. They're primed to supplement the roster from within, in FA, and in trade to make another leap next year. Where I have concerns is that while they'll have room to spend, they have committed enough money to the existing roster that they won't be able to exclusively spend their way to the top. Can they make the trades needed to get the team over the hump? Jed hasn't overseen a team with true competitive aspirations so it's somewhat understandable, but this team needs the type of moves that brought the previous era Fowler, Montero, and of course Arrieta/Strop. These are especially true because this team needs to be able to withstand the imperfections of breaking in prospects and not be expecting PCA to have a 110 wRC+ from the jump or for Horton to immediately start the 2nd game of a playoff series.
