Tim

So I take it you don't think Morel can get better then.

First off, this is a really interesting article about rookie performance at Fangraphs. The upshot of it is that average exit velocity (EV) is an even better predictor of future performance (measured as wRC+) than the actual rookie performance. 65% of players with an exit velocity of 89 end up with a wRC+ of 100 or better. That jumps to 77% at an EV of 90. Morel was at 89.6. His weakness was obviously plate discipline, but that is something that players can improve with experience. The data in the article shows that very few players can improve their average EV at all, let alone significantly. Morel already being significantly above average in EV means that he's got a good chance of being an above average offensive player throughout his career. Considering all the other ways he can contribute to the team, the Cubs should find a way to keep him on the field as much as possible. Plus he's one of the most fun players in baseball.

I think that might be too aggressive. I think he'll be an option for '24 if he shows out this year.

To expand on what Bertz said, Barnhart is a switch hitter who has normally hit reasonably well against right handed pitching. So the thought would be that he & Gomes would provide something close to a league average bat when paired together. Also Barnhart has a sterling reputation for all the soft factors of catching. That reputation includes two gold gloves behind the plate. So the Cubs are trying to go defense & game management first, while still pairing players together that can possibly provide enough offense to avoid a black hole in the lineup.

I wanted Correa, too. He's not a superstar.

I wouldn't worry about it.

So is Leatherwood

Not anymore

Tucker's got a really solid reputation for working with pitchers and game mgmt. But the metrics hated him behind the plate this past year. It's interesting to see what the Cubs are emphasizing.

Smyly pretty much takes trading for a SP off the table. Which is okay, I guess. I wonder what promises they make to him about his role in order to get him back.

It was a fine signing. I would have much preferred Correa or Turner, but this'll do. It still leaves us with a big gap between where we are as an offense and where we need to be. Here's one proposal to finish off the offseason. 1) Sign Brandon Belt - He's coming off a couple of injury-plagued years and saw his production hurt last year after his injury. But he's a lefty hitter that takes walks and hits when healthy. We've got injury insurance, but we need a masher to pair with Mash. 2) Sign Justin Turner - Dude can still hit. His play at 3B was questionable last year, but he's been otherwise good out there. 3) Trade Thompson+ for Jansen - Toronto has to be pissed about the return Oakland got for Murphy. But that should help keep the price fairly reasonable here. 4) Trade prospects for Trevor Rogers - He sucked last year, but the stuff is still there and the Cubs should help him get back into his 2021 form. 5) Trade Madrigal for AJ Puk - or some similar deal. Oakland gave most of their 2B starts last year to none other than Tony Kemp. Madrigal would be an upgrade for them. 6) Sign FA Reliever - I'll trust the Cubs here. ---------------- C - Jansen 1B - Mervis 2B - Hoerner 3B - Turner SS - Swanson LF - Happ CF - Bellinger RF - Suzuki DH - Belt SP - Stroman SP - Steele SP - Taillon SP - Rogers SP - Hendricks SP - Wesneski SP - Sampson SP - Kilian SP - Assad

Well, he is like 4'10"

he's fine.

Without question.

yeah, the second half of the season was really fun last year. If nothing else, Morel is a blast to watch having fun out there.

Late 2024 aggressively/things breaking right, 2025 sometime realistically. He hasn’t even played above A ball yet, he’s exciting but I’m moving him for a Devers caliber player. That's a bit pessimistic. I think best case scenario is that he tears up AA in the first half, gets promoted and destroys Iowa. He'd be positioned to break camp with the team in '24 in that scenario.

If he was always "the guy", kudos to the Cubs for giving him all the leverage by letting him become the last man standing. He's got a competent agent, so that was always likely to be the scenario anyway. Not to mention his getting married this offseason also helped determine the timing.

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough. In the game itself I can’t root for them to lose. I can’t disagree with the logic of losing but I want to see Fields celebrating a great win this year. I think he’s earned that. And I think the Bears are sure to lose most games anyway and get a high enough pick that a good GM can leverage to rebuild. They got sliding in the water against SF. Good enough. Gimme dat draft goodness.

Jansen is still out there.

I have...disagreements with that list

horsefeathers

Just give Correa the 12/360 contract at this point and let him & Boras set the record for shortstops.

I'm not too worried about Clarke sticking on an MLB roster all year. If he does, congrats.

Yeah I think this is right. Sampson and Assad at Iowa, Alzolay and Thompson in the pen. Thompson will be a true long guy for like 3-4 inning stints, while Alzolay is more like a 2ish inning guy. After they sign the other starter and push Wesneski to Iowa as well, it'll be truly enviable depth. The bullpen depth isn't far behind either. Yeah I did mean to add Keegan as one of the swingmen but it seems like the Cubs like him more out of the pen as a 2-3 inning guy Well, that's what a swingman does when he's not needed for spot starts.

Bellinger made the Cubs better as a baseline and potentially significantly better. Taillon made them better, as well. Sure, but even better better guys make them even more better, and also improve their chances with the whole "making themselves better appeals to the guys who would REALLY make them better" thing. Don't settle, Tim. Other than Nimmo, who was going to improve CF more as a FA?