That's a solid point, Tim. But sometimes teams have to be willing to have a bad contract for a year or two in order to have the services of a player before the team's window of opportunity closes. Take the Cubs this offseason. Many of us (including you) want the Cubs to sign Giles even if it means the Cubs give him 4 years. He's unlikely to earn his money the fourth year of that contract, but we'd be willing to give him the money anyway. We'd be willing to do so b/c we recognize that the Cubs time should be now. With Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Lee, Aramis, the Cubs have the pieces to contend for a World Series title in the next two years. We need Giles to do that. I think that Theo made a mistate by not resigning Pedro. He spent a lot of money on Clement, who just is nowhere nearly as good as Pedro. Yes, Pedro might not be worth the money by the 4th year of the contact. But the Red Sox would have won the division this year with Martinez and they may still be playing in the playoffs. This should have been the Red Sox time to win before players like Manny, Damon, etc move on... The argument with Giles is a bit different, in my opinion. I see Giles as being a guy that is likely to decline by the end of the contract, but I think he'll still be a serviceable player. The risk with Thome and Pedro is different. With those guys, the danger is that they will completely blow up and provide absolutely nothing to the team and will be completely untradeable, as well. There hasn't been much talk about Pedro's shoulder this year, but he's still a major health risk that could just blow out at any point. Given his past shoulder issues, I'm pretty sure that's an uninsurable contract, too. At least if he goes down with shoulder issues, anyway.